F1 07/08

[wazik]

A couple of years ago I got my girlfriend into F1, she doesnt bet but she likes to watch it. You have no idea how sick I am getting of hearing about how she wanted to back Hamilton at whatever mad price he was for the championship before it started and how I didnt put it on for her cos I told her she was daft Considering the year before I had to spend some of my hard earned backing Sato e/w for the title you can see why I was wary .

Anyway...

Oh that silly tricast was just a 1 pointer.

Bank
Starting bank: £300
Current bank: £390.87
Bets: 8 (21 points)
Winners: 5/8

I think thats right, I double checked it, must be. Gotta keep this up to date race by race its much easier.

Not bad after my first two bets losing and being five points down straight away. I shouldnt complain really as thats not bad considering the start but it means I have now had the same amount of losers as I had for the whole of last season. Maybe I was just lucky last year or maybe its the ol curse of posting them. I was swearing a bit after the first two races.

You were unlucky Mullet, Hiedfeld made that mistake in qualifing and could have easily been 3rd on the grid, looking back I dont think Ferrari could have caught him, nice spot though.

[wazik]

As spotted by someone previous to qualifing in another thread Ferrari have made up a bit of ground on McLaren and it looks pretty tight at the front. There was a lot of talk about Renault improving after the races in the US and it seems that they have. After a decent showing in the last race they have qualified strongly and shown they are catching up on BMW as the third team.

Its common in most races to get drivers quite far down the grid trying to make the one stop strategy pay off but I am not sure we will see much of that this weekend as the pits here are pretty small so a stop isnt as much of a penalty as it can be at most circuits, one of the commentators mentioned during the qualifing that Schumacher once won here on a planned four stop strategy, going to have a look into this cos I cant remember it. Overtaking here is defintley possible but its tricky and the two high speed chicanes make it entertaining.

Edit: meant to mention that theres a possibility it will be raining at some point during the race.

Looking at the grid for the race in terms of groups of cars. Firstly you have the obvious first group of Massa, Hamilton and Kimi. Behind them theres Kubica, Fisi, Kovalinnen and Hiedfeld. The rest of the field is pretty hard to split but say Trulli in 8th down to Webber in 14th.

Same as most weeks in that I wont touch that first group as there is nothing between them really. Realistically for someone outside that top group to break into it there has to be a retirement from one of the top 3.

With the exception of Alonso promotion from the 3rd group wont be easy either as the third group is really competitive and I think if anyone drops from the 2nd group its going to be a retirement or a Kovalinnen. Alonso should be able to make it into that second group without too much trouble barring problems with his car but to progress through it could be tough and I think finishing 4th from 10th tommorow would be a cracking result for him, the BMWs are still best of the rest but it appears the Renaults really do have some speed now. Thoughts as below on bets.

Trulli to finish in points 2.1 at everywhere (2.22 now on betfair)
If you assume that Alonso is going to get past Trulli at some point, a fair assumption I would think, then to get in the points Trulli is either going to have smoke one the guys in front or make up a place due to a retirement. Not sure about this, it was a good bet at the same price last week but I am not entirely convinced this week.

Hiedfeld to beat Kovalinnen 1.8 @ Expekt
Hiedfeld starts in 7th from the row behind Kovalinnen who starts 6th. Kovalinnen has been pretty decent so far, I had early doubts but he hasnt made many mistakes since but this car isnt the finished article yet and Hiedfeld is faster, simple as that. The price would be nicer it was 1.9 :P but you cant have everything, I think he should be able to get past over the period of a race. Oh and if it rains Hiedfeld likes rain.

Every week there seems to be less prices available and the sites that do have the match bets just have the same ones, even Ladbrokes havent bothered their arse to get some prices up. If only there were a bookies with a bit of imagination...I suppose if there was a lot of money going on these bets then there would be better matches but guessing there isnt a lot of intrest and hence the sparse selection.

3pts on Heidfeld to beat Kovalinnen at Expekt.

[mullet1984]

Sorry Wazik, sorry for my absence of late. Good analysis mate. The money was there to be made in qaulifying. couldn't believe after friday practice that Massa was 4/1 for pole on sat in a 4 horse race, and he was fastest on friday. Amazing.

Anyway with the rain had a few other interest punts.
Satil ponts @ 40/1 and Button podium 66/1, following Bettingzone on these.

I really cant see Alonso finishing this race. With the rain, hs desperation to get back in the title hunt and frustration with Hamilton. Couple ths with his unreliability this weekend and engine problems anf the 15/4 at Expekt aint looking too shabby not to be classified.

Other bets that may take your interest. Top 2 to be hamilton/massa any order at 5/4 laddies, not quite big enough, want 6/4 personally.

I really not sure, who will win. if the rain falls, it should be a cracker.

[Rissso]

I think Hamilton will make his third win in a row. He is in top form
these days, no regrets to the opponents. His qualifying 2nd place will
turn into the first very quickly. The best will be if it happens before
they reach the first curve. Massa will be fighting, but the yesterday´s
crash in the Grand Prix 2 race won´t repeat . Did anyone see that
crash? Leading two riders collided after several metres and fly away
from the track

[Rissso]

My next bad forecast was born... Seems that McLaren won´t win today, no wonder they have only one victory in Magny-Cours. That is why I will go on and bet again on F1 .
It´s unbelievable, but I even won in 1993 when Prost finished in first place after he left the track in that race, it was . Later on, I never bet on Schumacher. It would be easy money, but I didn´t like him, so rather bet against him .

[wazik]

Its always nice when your bets in the bag after the first lap.

Bank
Starting bank: £300
Current bank: £414.87
Bets: 9 (24 points)
Winners: 6/9

[kompressaur]

Lewis Hamilton has been eased to as big as 8/13 for the world drivers' title despite extending his lead in the standings with a third-placed finish in the French Grand Prix.

Ferrari claimed their first one-two finish for 15 grands prix - but it was not enough to prevent Hamilton from stretching his World Championship lead.

Kimi Raikkonen led home Ferrari team-mate Felipe Massa after winning a pit-stop battle at Magny-Cours, with Hamilton having to settle for third.

However, heading into the British Grand Prix at Silverstone next Sunday, Hamilton holds a 14-point cushion over McLaren team-mate Fernando Alonso who could only finish seventh.

Remarkably, this was Hamilton's poorest result since he was third on his debut in the season-opening Australian Grand Prix.

Since then the 22-year-old Briton had finished runner-up on four successive occasions prior to his back-to-back wins in Canada and the United States.

But it is now eight successive podiums for Hamilton, who was on a three-stop strategy, and while he will be happy with the gap to Alonso, the Ferraris are back in the picture.

That's reflected in the betting, with Coral's reaction typical as they eased Hamilton to 4/7 from 4/9.

Alonso is 7/2 second favourite to retain his crown, with the Ferrari pair of Massa and Raikkonen now 5/1 and 8/1 respectively.

Hamilton is 6/1 with Coral to finish on the podium in every race in 2007, 7/4 to win his home Grand Prix at Silverstone, and 1/7 for the BBC Sports Personality of the Year award.

"By his own ridiculously high standards, Lewis Hamilton's third place at Magny-Cours will come as a huge disappointment to his many fans, but he's still the man to beat as he heads to Silverstone with a 14 point championship lead," said Coral's David Stevens.

"However, if Ferrari can maintain their fightback, the title race should be a lot closer than it seemed it would be two weeks ago."

That view was backed up by Ladbrokes spokesman Nick Weinberg who said: "Hamilton may have extended his championship lead but the vast improvement of the Ferraris means that the Brit is unlikely to have it all his own way.

"Ferrari's season has received a timely shot in the arm. Success in France will provide a good platform from which they can mount an assault upon the McLarens of Hamilton and Alonso.

"The notion that this season's title will be battled out in-house by the McLarens has been dispelled."

Bettingzone

[wazik]

That was amazing in qualifing today by Hamilton, never really showing any speed and then just nailing it when he had to. I didnt fancy him much for this race before qualifing but it will be intresting tommorow.

Schumacher starts in 6th, how did that happen?? The field should hang their heads in shame, it must be a blip, who can I take him on with??

Havent seen any prices yet but I cant imagine I will be looking at the top 4. Just looking at the race order and apart from Schumacher not too many surprises, Hiedfeld only 9th I spose. He wasnt happy with the car, I think he has a back injury as well and from his comments he has a lot of fuel.

Wurz improved his qualifing performance after getting some stick about it from his boss and he could get ahead of the red bulls who look steady but not as good as they have done. Wurz has ran heavy quite a lot this year and the Red Bulls tend just to go with a normal strategy.

In 6th, 7th and 8th its the three guys that I often view as a bit weak Schumacher, Kovalinnen and Fisi, not so much Fisi as he is experienced and consistent but I feel a lot of the time he doesnt have the speed. Usually I would be looking at Trulli for points starting 10th but hes not been happy with his car but I'll look into it.

Just spotted this at PaddyPower - "If Lewis Hamilton fails to finish in the points or does not complete the race, Paddy Power will refund all losing bets on him to win the race." 2.10 at the moment but after looking at only a few sites theres better prices available and you have to think the chances of him not finishing are reasonably small.

Wurz to beat Barrichello @ 1.83 at PP
Starting together from 13th and 14th. Honda have made improvements to the car but its still gimped. I quite like Wurz he always seems to have decent pace but is shit at qualifing, hes done a bit better here and 13th isnt too shabby. Barrichello is a good solid driver but I think the Williams should be faster over the full race. The only reservation I have about this one is that they are at the back of the middle pack which starts really at Schumacher in 6th. I cant really see anyone behind giving them any hassle but even in Wurz does get away in front (which he should with Barrichello on the dirty side) there isnt really anywhere for him to go with the Red Bulls in front. I think he wins this but it'll prolly be a race long battle.

Trulli points 2.5 @ ladbrokes
As I said above with this grid most times I would bite your hand off for this but to quote Trulli from F1.com "I have been struggling with the set-up and I have really found it hard to get hold of the car. We tried to improve the set-up this morning but we didn’t succeed. It seems that whatever I tried to do I would be slow." Doesnt exactly fill me with confidence and if Heidfeld who starts in front of him gets passed the 2 Renaults in front it wont be so easy for Trulli to get by them so I'll pass on this.

Wurz points 4.0 @ skybet, Expekt
Thinking here is that Wurz who I am guessing is fuelled heavily will be mixing it with the Red Bulls early with nobody behind really being able to challenge him. If he can get past one or both of them and then leapfrog one or two by missing a stop then all of a sudden hes 8th or 9th. With Schumacher and Kovalinnen in the middle of a competitive pack theres potential for a small mishap somewhere and potentially a couple of retirements due to technical probs. I am not sure if 4.0 is a good price...does he finish in the points more than 1 out of 3 times.... I think maybe.

Kubica to beat Heidfeld @ 1.57 at BS (1.45 at expekt)
Hmm, Kubica starts 5th with the usual 4 in front and behind he has Schumacher, Kovalinnen, Fisi and then Heidfeld in 9th. The only one of them that has a car capable of lapping at the same speed as him is Heidfeld who has looked a bit off his game in the last race and this one so far. Thats a bit harsh maybe, he finished 5th in the last race from 7th on the grid thats a good result but he never really threatened Kubica who finished 4th from 4th. So 1.57 that Heidfeld fails to beat him from a harder position than he couldnt last week seems decent. Those 3 cars in front of Heidfeld will seriously hold him up and he may find as hes heavy on fuel (I think) that he cant get passed them and will have to wait till they pit.

Wurz to beat Rosberg @ 1.67 @ BS
Again with Wurz... starting in 13th with Rosberg in 17th. I would imagine that they would be on similar strategies. I have the same worry with this as I would above that Rosberg should get past the 3 cars between them without too much trouble and there isnt really anywhere to go for Wurz unless he can get past the Red Bulls early which is a pretty big ask. I am not sure this is a wonderful price but its a possible double with Kubica to beat Heidfeld.

Kubica without top the 4. 2.5 @ Skybet, ladbrokes
Theres a lot of Kubica to beat x,y,z about this week and they are all pretty shitty prices. He did it last week from the same position and I dont see any reason why he cant do it again. I would argue with the order of cars behind him this week it should be a lot easier. I am thinking a crash, retirement or absolute wonder drive from Heidfeld is the only thing stopping him.

Trulli to beat Schumacher 2.55 @ Expekt
There we go. I found one at last. Thanks Expekt we love you. 10th vs 6th and Schumacher looked fast in qualifing whereas Trulli kind of didnt... I have only heard of one person who rates Schumacher and thats him, even his brother doesnt like him. Realistically though I dont think 2.55 is much to shout about. If he doesnt crash or retire then Trulli who doesnt seem very happy is going to struggle to get up and past him, not really known for his overtaking finesse Trulli. Bah!

Hmm, quite a lot on offer this week but I am going to fire into the Kubica without the top 4 @ 2.5 Ladbrokes 2 points.

[wazik]

Wurz never really got going today and as I feared may happen he got by Rosberg who had a stormer and had nowhere in front to go, glad I managed to put myself off Wurz today as I was tempted to have a small bet on him for a points finish. As I suspected Trulli had a bit of a stinker eventually retiring but he lasted long enough to win the match bet! Schumacher loses even when his oppenent fails to finish.

Kubica bet was only really in doubt for a minute or two when he came in for his last pit stop before Heidfeld in case Heidfeld came out in front of him but apart from that it wasnt really ever in any danger.


Bank
Starting bank: £300
Current bank: £444.87
Bets: 10 (26 points)
Winners: 7/10

[mullet1984]

Good write up mate, i had Heidfied at 3/1 without top4, little annoyed, and had Massa who could have easily won.

Not the best weekend but i ll bonuce back

[wazik]

Yeah unlucky man. Thats the reason I usually leave my bets until after the qualifing. Sure before qualifing the prices are much meatier but theres so little between the whole field that its a total minefield. Qualifing is really really hard to predict because your talking about 1/000ths of a second making a difference, one tiny wee miniscule error can be the difference between starting 4th or 12th. The most I ever try and predict before qualifing is the winning team and thats based more on previous races and practices. Thats us half way through the season now theres plenty more winners out there for us I am sure.

[wazik]

hey folks, not a lot of notice for this as qualifing starts in about 45mins but just been having a look at the qualifing prices.

Kimi has been fastest in practice so far with Hamilton 0.1 or so behind him but still 3.75 on betfair (3.5 on laddies) seems a large price for Hamilton to win the qualifing especially after the performance in the last race when he pulled out that miracle lap right at the death. I expect Kimi to take it but I think Hamilton will be closest to him.

I am not having a bet as I will be disciplined and stick to my plan so far as it seems to be working quite well and the qualifing between those top 4 is really tight but it stuck out as a decent price.

[wazik]

From the practice sessions before qualifing it looked like Kimi and Hamilton were the men to beat, I dont know if Hamilton would have won that today if he hadnt crashed but I reckon it would of been between him and Kimi. I was surprised at the pace Massa had, through practice he looked quite a bit off the pace of the other 3 and he doesnt seem to like this track much but he was pretty fast. I suspected as has happened previously that McLaren would run light in the qualifing to get ahead of the Ferraris to try and get a hold of the race as the Ferraris are quicker over long distance now that they have failed to do that it looks like it will take a lot to stop Kimi winning this very easily.

Kimi is available to win the race at 1.8 at ladbrokes. Only 1.76 available on Betfair and as low as 1.57 in some places. I cant see anyone stopping him tommorow.

Trulli pts evs at bluesq
Trulli starting in 8th and potential to move up I think, he has Webber two in front who you can never guarantee will finish a race with reliability always a question of the Red Bulls and Kovalinnen in front there is potential there. He shouldnt have too much trouble from behind once Hamilton has passed but he the will have to make up at least one place. I think he prolly will sneak in 8th but not for me at evens.

saftey car yes evs at skybet, 2.4 at expekt
Seems a big price this. I would be extremely surprised if there werent a few bumbs at that first corner, even then the second and third could be messy as well, slow corners + large pack = mess. The reason for this price is that there is a sea of gravel surounding the track so unless someone leaves a load of debris on the track when they go off they will most likely be out of harms way. Hmm maybe a 1 pointer.

I found something intresting on bet365 today. Not sure if its new or I just havent noticed it before but they have group betting, like match betting but with 4 instead of 2.

Group 2 consists of:
Nico Rosberg 2.50
Alexander Wurz 3.25
Rubens Barrichello 3.75
Jenson Button 9.00
David Coulthard 21.00

The only car from the bottom 3 that can compete with the pace of the Williams is Coulthard who starts 20th. Rosberg starts 11th and Wurz 12th which is a nice place to start as you are just outside the top 10 and can pick your fuel load exactly as you want it instead of having to run your fuel down to the correct amount if you make it through to Q3. Meaning the 2 Williams should have optimum strategy tommorow and as far as I can see the only question is which one of them wins this bet. Essentially you are getting 2.50 on Rosberg to beat Wurz or 3.25 for the other way round.


Group 3:
Takuma Sato 2.00
Anthony Davidson 3.25
Scott Speed 8.00
Adrian Sutil 8.00
Vitantonio Liuzzi 11.00

Similar to group 2 really, the top two here shouldnt really be getting caught by the others. Davidson has been doing well recently and I have seen worse bets than to beat this lot.

Theres even less match bets around this week than usual. Expekt have never let me down up to this point and I have emailed them requesting prices so I'll have a look round later on. For now I am having 3pts on Kimi to win the race, I dont think Massa or Alonso have either the strategy or the pace to beat him.

[wazik]

Looking forwards today to see how Hamilton gets up through the field, first chance to see him not starting up at the front and how he responds. All the commentators talk about how good he is at overtaking now we get a chance to see with him under pressure to score as many points as possible. See if he can get past the BMWs compared to Alonso who couldnt a few weeks ago and Massa who made it all the way through the field two weeks ago as well.

I was having a think about the race last night and thinking about Coulthard starting all the way down in 20th with his teammate in 6th and wondering if with a bit of luck, a few retirements and a storming drive from DC theres a chance he could come right through the field and hit some points.

I was trying to work out what price I would take and came to the conclusion that anything 11.00 and above would be worthy of a 1 pointer. Checking around this morning and DC for points is as low as 4.5 in some places!!

Did these people bust out the crack pipe before pricing this up? I would need 4.5 for a Red Bull to finish the race with their reliability never mind finish in the points. Best I can find is 9.0 on Betfair but I had really got my hopes up of finding someone with 16.00ish. No bet.

Frustrates me a bit the way F1 is priced. It seems the bookies just stick some markets up with shoddy prices and think "we priced it up, thats all we need to do" and then they wonder why they dont take much money on it. Its cos you all have the same markets with the numbers changed around a bit!! Put a bit of effort in! (I do love Expekt though, I mailed them last night cos they didnt have match bets up and within an hour they had them up and sent me a nice email to tell me, wish me a good weekend and to enjoy my bet, thanks Expekt we love you)

OK so its never going to be as popular as football or other sports but it does have a large fan base. I dunno maybe its just not that popular as something to bet on. Apart from sportinglife its not easy to find anyone looking at F1 from a gambling perspective.

Rant over. Apologies.

[wazik]

oh dear...if you are not watching this turn it on, its raining a bit.