Running a bluff

[Jezza]

Here is a big bluff I ran in a cash game last night. Any comments on the hand appreciated - what do you think of it? Ill just post the whole hand up and explain my thought process afterwards once I have a few comments. I realise preflop is loose but I had position and the stacks were deep. If I didnt have both of these factors in play then I would have just folded preflop.

Seat 1: Frant1sekLipa ($544.95 in chips) DEALER
Seat 2: jervas ($628.35 in chips)
Seat 4: borderboy ($462.50 in chips)
Seat 5: iloveu2 ($102.60 in chips)
Seat 6: SUITEDPOWER ($640.10 in chips)
Seat 7: bouba95 ($266.55 in chips)
Seat 9: Heimdall1983 ($872.49 in chips)
Seat 10: NuttyProffesor ($566.10 in chips)
jervas: Post SB $3.00
borderboy: Post BB $6.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to SUITEDPOWER [D7 DA]
iloveu2: Call $6.00
SUITEDPOWER: Call $6.00
bouba95: Call $6.00
Heimdall1983: Fold
NuttyProffesor: Fold
Frant1sekLipa: Fold
jervas: Raise $27.00
borderboy: Fold
iloveu2: Fold
SUITEDPOWER: Call $24.00
bouba95: Fold
*** FLOP *** [CJ DQ C7]
jervas: Bet $36.00
SUITEDPOWER: Call $36.00
*** TURN *** [D2]
jervas: Bet $90.00
SUITEDPOWER: Call $90.00
*** RIVER *** [C4]
jervas: Check
SUITEDPOWER: Bet $330.00

[Hippy Dave]

To be honest, that's the kind of bluff I look to use a lot (albeit at lower levels), but you have to know your opponent very well to pull that off.

[raisin man]

I've been using that bluff sparingly since I got back for Vegas. I've realised that people really don't want to put their whole stack at risk even with an overpair. Most of the time you'll take it down.

If you don't it'll set you up for some good big hands in future when people put you on a bluff again.

[mrmuzeman]

I was speaking to Jez about this hand yesterday so ill just say what I said then. Tbh I think this is a kind of break even type bluff this one ish. On the turn its clear hes has something good, it just depends how good.

His normal range (disregarding 10% zomg factor which of course cant be disregarded, paradox there) is AQ for top pair, AA, KK for overpairs or QQ, JJ for the sets. He did hammer it up from out the SB remember so its gona be a quality holding.

So it just comes down to what sort of player he is. Against a donk this river bluff is seriously non profitable cos the donk would hardly fold ever. If hes a smart regular who you know to be a decent player then hes folding the top pairs and overpairs but calling with the sets. I dont think even a 'good' player is gona find a fold with the set there.

A river diamond is the fcuking ticket here though if hes got a top notch hand cos hed likely actually even lead into you which would have been sweet. So I think flop and turn are absolutely fine.

Its just for this bluff on this board to work he does have to fold more than half the time otherwise there is just no point (bluffing 330 to win 330). I reckon you get 60% folds out of 'good' players (fold AQ, AA, KK), 40% folds from 'ok/avg' players (fold AQ and KK) and probably 20% folds (AQ) from 'donks' so meh. Thats my crude math on it anyway. The majority of players on 3/6 would take up the first 2 categories there which results in 50% folds so = break even play for me.

[mrmuzeman]

So if this is a break even play what are the pluses/minuses


Benefits

BLUFFOED. That Bluffo feeling of taking down a sweet pot with pish.

IMAGE CREATION. If you get called players see youre capable of making such bluffs and will call your pot bets lighter at the river when invariably you have the goods.


Negatives

UNECESSARY VARIANCE. Bigger win/loss swings instead of a 0 balance from checking behind.

THE GEORGE MICHAEL SCENARIO. Aka getting caught with your pants down.

[Jezza]

Ok preflop has already been discussed. The flop is marginal I agree. He is a fairly decent regular, Ive played several thousand hands w him and my tracker stats show he is a winner. Raising out of the blinds is usually a big sign of strength and I expect his range to be AQ, AK and the big PPairs. He might just be cbetting AK on the flop and I do have a position with a hand that has some potential to improve even if I am behind at this point in time so I chose to peel a card off. Folding would be the standard play here and be a-ok as well. The turn is a wonderful card for me and he leads strong again. By this time like has been said already it is clear he has a hand and not AK. This is the minimum of AQ for jamie golds fave top top. It could also easily be AA/KK or a set of jacks or queens. I doubt he has clubs or he would probably have checked the turn (and it would have to be AK clubs precisely). I do not have immediate pot odds to chase the diamond flush by any stretch of the imagination however this is a true case of implied odds. There is no WAY he will put me on backdoor diamonds and given we know he has a big hand he is guaranteed to call me 100% on the river if I hit. If he does have a set then its stackzor time or if he even has AQ I am sure he will call a pot bet on a dia river as my hand looks like a draw at the moment (I would have raised a set by this point at some time). So I called it pretty quickly. Unfortunately I missed the river but ofc the scare card hit. He clearly doesnt have clubs I would say from his betting patterns and he checks, obviously fearful of my hand. Even tho I have a pair I cannot check here and hope to win given my read that he has a good hand, I have to either check and lose or try and bluff to win. I figured he was good and tough enough to lay an overpair to this river. I also know he has played with me so much he surely knows I play pretty tightly and usually show up with the goods when a big pot goes down. So I took a chance and tried it on. FWIW I am this aggro with the nuts as well as with a bluff (the huge bet at the end) so he has to really find the heart to call here.

He used half his timebank and then called with........
Dealt to jervas [CQ SQ]


G A Y

[kompressaur]

I just chanced a big bluff. Phew. Called and i was out.

Game #4824321254: Hold'em NL (50/100) - 2007/06/26 - 00:52:19 (UK)
Table "5" Seat 5 is the button.
Seat 1: Piglet2nd (4600 in chips)
Seat 2: Powerhaus (1905 in chips)
Seat 3: Ste190574 (3235 in chips)
Seat 4: KMAN19 (3420 in chips)
Seat 5: Wacka1948 (2445 in chips)
Seat 6: Kev051011 (6440 in chips)
Seat 7: Jimnicksi (2995 in chips)
Seat 8: kompressaur (3882.50 in chips)
Seat 9: Draggoch (720 in chips)
Seat 10: Mrsogden (3230 in chips)
Kev051011: posts small blind 50
Jimnicksi: posts big blind 100
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to kompressaur [6s 7s]
kompressaur: calls 100
Draggoch: calls 100
Mrsogden: folds
Piglet2nd: calls 100
Powerhaus: folds
Ste190574: folds
KMAN19: folds
Wacka1948: folds
Kev051011: calls 50
Jimnicksi: checks
----- FLOP ----- [6h 8d 3s]
Kev051011: bets 500
Jimnicksi: folds
kompressaur: calls 500
Draggoch: folds
Piglet2nd: folds
----- TURN ----- [6h 8d 3s][2d]
Kev051011: bets 500
kompressaur: raises to 1000
Kev051011: calls 500
----- RIVER ----- [6h 8d 3s 2d][Ks]
Kev051011: checks
kompressaur: bets 2282.50 and is all-in
Kev051011: folds
Returned uncalled bets 2,282.50 to kompressaur
kompressaur: doesn't show hand
kompressaur collected 3500 from Main pot
----- SUMMARY -----
Total pot 3500 Main pot 3500 Rake 0
Board [6h 8d 3s 2d Ks]
Seat 1: Piglet2nd folded on the Flop
Seat 2: Powerhaus folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Ste190574 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: KMAN19 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Wacka1948 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Kev051011 (small blind) folded on the River
Seat 7: Jimnicksi (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 8: kompressaur collected 3500
Seat 9: Draggoch folded on the Flop
Seat 10: Mrsogden folded before Flop (didn't bet)