Folding KK preflop?

[Jezza]

Very hard to do this I would like some opinions.

I have folded it only 3 times preflop ever, this hand was the 3rd time ive done it. There was another time maybe a month ago where I almost did, but didnt and ran into AA .

FWIW I told him what I was folding after using a lot of my timebank, he said nothing and mucked.

Game #1981487633: Hold'em NL ($2/$5) - 2006/05/29 - 15:56:19 (ET)
Table "Trinidad" Seat 6 is the button.
Seat 1: TommyLee ($276.50 in chips)
Seat 2: Canon ($480.50 in chips)
Seat 3: GrandX1 ($502 in chips)
Seat 4: Anrik ($325.75 in chips)
Seat 5: Webers ($121.35 in chips)
Seat 6: Devestatr ($1129.27 in chips)
Seat 7: The_Sea ($328.50 in chips)
Seat 8: booboo21 ($500 in chips)
Seat 9: tez104 ($477 in chips)
Seat 10: Grim ($953.36 in chips)
The_Sea: posts small blind $2
booboo21: posts big blind $5
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to Devestatr [Ks Kd]
tez104: calls $5
Grim: raises to $25
TommyLee: folds
Canon: folds
GrandX1: raises to $60
Anrik: folds
Webers: folds
Devestatr: raises to $100
The_Sea: folds
booboo21: folds
tez104: folds
Grim: folds
GrandX1: raises to $250
Devestatr: folds
Returned uncalled bets $150 to GrandX1
GrandX1: doesn't show hand
GrandX1 collects $237 from Main pot
----- SUMMARY -----
Total pot $237 Main pot $237 Rake $0
Seat 1: TommyLee folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: Canon folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: GrandX1 collected $237
Seat 4: Anrik folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Webers folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Devestatr (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: The_Sea (small blind) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: booboo21 (big blind) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: tez104 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 10: Grim folded before Flop (didn't bet)
****HAND ENDS****

[aliensyndm]

Bit pants that really, it's decision time with the kings, it's either push your whole stack in there or bin them isn't it ? Once you call the raise the guy only has another $250 behind him so if you believe you are behind to AA you don't have odds to call the raise. You either gotta believe your kings are good and stick him all in or bin them and lose $100 or so. Haha just as I was typing this reply I got dealt KK, couple of limpers, I raised to 4 BB and........


and.....


everyone folded


He's certainly played that hand showing immense strength, someone raised to 5 BBs, he then raised that, you've raised both of them and he's come back over you. If that doesn't scream aces I don't know what does. Of course that doesn't mean he had them. Perhaps it was KK also ?
From the information you have it would certainly seem like it was aces, I mean assuming you have no other info on the player.
$500 is quite alot to put in preflop when you aren't guranteed to be ahead isn't it ? You'd want all the cash in pre-flop if you had the aces wouldn't you and that seemed to be what he was doing, I mean surely he didn't think the other people had marginal hands. Tough fold to make man, not sure if I would have managed it myself

[Beanie]

I think I'd agree with the fold there Jez - aslong as this guy isn't a complete muppet I can't see him making that play with anything other than AA. He's being aggressive towards a re-re raise and there isn't a case that can be made for that kind of play with QQ or likewise, unless he has a very specific read on you and somehow reads your raise as a bluff.

Your raise looks like it wants a call and so from his point of view if he has anything else he doesn't have any reason to believe you're not holding AA yourself, and if thats the case he'll be taken for most of his stack, and will get a call.

Could be KK also I suppose, but even then as I say he has no reason to believe you don't have AA if he has that so its a bold move.

Im blabbing, but in my humble opinion its a correct fold, and exactly the same chain of events which led to me putting down KK preflop (the solitary time I have done so) which was up against AA(which I only found out cos someone called with A3 .)

[Jezza]

Sorry guys I forgot the player info as well, Hes a very good TAG, a pro I would imagine but not certain on that


Jez

[aliensyndm]

The fact he's a pro probably makes it less likely to be AA
If he is and he recognises you as a decent player he might think he can get you off QQ and KK, perhaps he has KK himself. Then again, perhaps he did have AA and there was no trickery involved. Annoying not to know isn't it ?

[mrmuzeman]

Hes got AA there and hes a poor player too on this hand imo. Cant see what other hand makes the move to $250. KK even wldnt, it would be all in I would say.

Not sure about your initial raise though but it worked out ok so was well played

I prob raise to between $160 and $200 and call when he goes all in back at me and get stackod.

[christianu]

Yeah I have never folded KK pre flop.

However at 25c/50c levels it could so easily be A6 as it was before when i thought with my KK oh shit he's got aces after a raising battle pre flop, he didnt he had A6 and he made a straight on the river

But that does scream aces there Jez, but we will never knowwww.

[Doc]

I'd be loath to fold KK pre-flop, barring certain unusual situations in tournaments etc, as I think it is almost always a big error.

I ran some hand sims here, and for AA against KK, you are between 17% and 20% to win, depending on shared suits. For you to 'know' that he has AA, you typically are looking at having raise, re-raise and then him coming over the top, at least, to make such a call.

In the example here, you have $440 in the pot and it costs you another $150 to call - i.e. you are getting almost 3-1 on your money. If he is holding the Aces and a King comes on the flop (about 1 in 8 times) then you're going to stack him (another $250). If an ace comes on the flop, you're going to get out of the hand for just $150 (the call pre-flop). Most other flops you're probably all-in.

So, IF he holds AA, then you lose $150 more 12% of the time (when an ace flops), 12% of the time you make $690 (when a King flops), about another 6-8% of the time you make $690 (where you get a King on the turn or river, or make a straight or flush), while the balance (about 70%) you lose another $400.
An approximate EV for here is +$18 +$83 +$48 -$280 = -$131

If he holds KK, then your EV is +$220 (half the pot on the table), although probably less, given he has position - say maybe +$180

Anything else, your EV is probably about +$300-$400, maybe more

so the question is are you more than 75-80% (maybe more) sure that he has AA?

I don't know that you can be that sure in most situations. A very plausible explanation is that the guy is running a squeeze play on 'Grim'. Plenty of players would do that with KK, QQ, AKs etc. From his perspective, as long as neither of you have AA, then he has a decent chance to win the pot there and then. If he is called, he has position, and if he is put all-in he can fold if he wishes.

I'd say that is enough to doubt to justify a call, or even an all-in yourself.

[Doc]

oops - just realised that he was the original raiser.
Still not sure that folding is correct though. I don't think I'd go all-in with aces there - I'd have to figure you for a big pair, so I might well wait till the flop to make more money.

[aliensyndm]

Speaking of pocket aces, here's an interesting hand I just had.
I am dealt A diamonds A clubs in the small blind. There's been 1 limper I think.
Ok way out position so healthy raise is put in. The big blind folded and the limper called. The flop then came down T J Q all in diamonds.
I led with a pot sized bet and the limper minimum raised me.
Argh the dreaded minimum raise, often a sign of a very strong hand.
Still what the hell is a very strong hand there ? It's gonna have to be pretty beefcake cos it's seriously draw heavy ! Is he trying to convince me he has flopped a flush ? Well if so I know it's not the nut flush as I have the ace.
If he flopped a flush surely he would be aware that I could hold the ace and hence would have to protect his hand with more than a minimum raise ?
Or QQ JJ are also possible hands for me and can easily fill up, if he has a flush he'd be wanting to more than minimum raise surely
Perhaps this guy has a set like TT ? Still in big danger of an outdraw though.
Minimum raise seemed a bit strange here.
I gotta look at my own hand here, I already have a hand in the fact it's a pair of aces, that will beat a missed draw so to say. I have the nut flush draw and an inside straight draw.
So after the minimum raise what would anyone have done here ? I've no info on the player btw as I had just sat down.

[mrmuzeman]

I had an EXTREMELY similar thing to this. Very the same (it was even diamonds!) bar he went all in, instead of min raising me. also it was QJrag. I called figuring for top 2 which makes me 50/50. He had flopped a flush with 43d but I hit a river diamond. It was defo the right move though cos KQ with Kd makes that move which im well infront of. Also QJ makes the move for top 2 and im actually a min favourite over that with my draws and poss of board pairing.

In your circ you got min raised which is more likely to be beating you already than an all in i would say but the range of hands is still fairly similar. Its a tough one but you have to play there. I think you can discount AK, QQ and JJ in the main because they wouldnt have limped vast majority of the time. Id imagine here its either 98, QJ, Q10, J10, KQ with Kd, 1010 or random flopped flush with any 2 cards.

Not sure what is the best play, its probly 50/50 your in decent shape or a bit behind. Pots offering you 3/1 odds to draw but you are out of position which makes more case for a reraise all in. If he wasnt that deep id put him all in, if he was very deep maybe call is best either way im def playing.

[Jezza]

I definately go for it there on the flop and reraise all in with the nut flush draw, without it I prob fold.

[mrmuzeman]

I agree there, in the heat of the moment and as im OOP id just say fuck it ive got a big hand and a big draw if you can beat that fair play which is what I did on my one.

ALL IN

[aliensyndm]

You got that pretty much bang on muze. My figuring was he's probably got something like QK with king diamonds or perhaps JQ for top 2 pair.
I really couldn't see QQ or a set. Yeah he could have limped with JJ or QQ or TT but I don't think he would minimum raise with a set there.
He had about 95BBs and I had him covered, so the pot was 10 BBs, I led 10 BBs into it, he minimm raised it to 20. There's now 40 in the pot, me to act and he's got another 70 or so BBs. Now if I call 10 and a complete blank hits the turn can I call 70 BBs ? Not really I don't think.
The main problem is I am way out of position and I don't wanna end up committing alot of chips on the turn without odds.
I figured there was a very good chance I was actually favourite for the pot with the draw I had hence if I was gonna play I had to put him all in.
Even if I wasn't favourite for the decision I was now left with, ie put in about 70 BBs to win 110BBs that certainly was enough to compensate for any few % I thought I might be behind if he had flopped a flush or straight.
A straight with no diamonds and I'm 50/50 for the pot. A straight with 1 diamonds and Im slightly behind, just. A set isn't actually too bad, against say JJ I am still 42% ish here. Flush is the worst where I could be around the 30% mark. But I'm putting in 70 to win 110 and flush is realistically worst case scenario, there's many more scenarios where I my draw makes me ahead or I am perhaps ahead anyway. 70 to win 110 is only a small amount out what I would need for odds to that anyway and combined with all the other likely scenarios I think that is all in ever tme surely ?!
I put him all in and he flopped over JQ for top 2 pair - perfect - I am actually favourite for this pot with all my draws and I am pleased I called it right. I have the flush draw, the straight draw and the board pairing outwith Qs or Js to make me 2 pair all going for me. And luckily I did hit the draw, I caught the 2 diamonds on the turn which then puts him as about 10-1 dog to fill up and he missed. Amusingly enough I got an ace on the river not that it actually effected the hand in any way.

Then the very next hand I am dealt aces again. I raise again, some guy is all in for 1 BB Everyone else folds and I end up with a 3.5 BBs pot for my troubles, ah well eh, canny moan !

[mrmuzeman]

I put him all in and he flopped over JQ for top 2 pair

Yeah that was what I put my opponent on when I called mine, so its nice to see the read being correct for yours even if it wasnt for mine.