To push or not to push ?

[aliensyndm]

OK here's an amusing hand I had the other day. It's NL hold 'em cash table.
I'm in the big blind and am dealt 5c6c.
Two other limpers. Flop comes 2d 7c 8c
Mmmm now that's a pretty nice flop for me. Huge draw. I instantly know from pot odds etc I'm about 54% to make either a flush or a straight. Of course that doesn't mean I'm 54% to win the pot as there could be sets/higher flushses etc but it's a huge draw of course.

So I'm first to act and out of position. I don't wanna be drawing to this so I lead out at it. There's a pretty decent chance the other 2 haven't caught any of this and I'll pick up this pot here and then. Pot had 3.5 BBs so I led for 4 BBs, overbetting it a little almost.
Now the next person raises to 10 BB and the other limper folds, intriguing. Now we have some action.

Now I have no read on this player. I basically have two choices. Call the 6 or re-raise ie put him all in. I'm not folding on the flop here of course.
Now I have to think what kinda hand has this guy got ?
Could it be he sees weakness in my bet and has decided to make a play at me and get me to throw my cards down ?
He could have an overpair such as TT, JJ etc
He could have 2 pair such as 7s and 8s
He could have a draw himself like AcQc or 9 10 or even 9c10c
He could have a set such as 222 777 888

Now do I call the 6 or put him all in ? If I just call the 6 I feel I could put myself in an akward situation. Firstly I am out of position - this doesn't help.
Secondly there are quite alot of cards that are gonna scare my hand into not knowing whether I am still drawing live ! If a 7 falls has he made a house ?
If a 2 falls has he made a house ? If a jack falls has he made a straight ?
This could lead to me putting in a fair chunk of cash way behind.
Thirdly if the turn does fall an absolute blank and he put's me all in on the turn (or makes a very large bet) I can't call. You could I suppose argue I would be calling for the rest of his stack anyway but I don't want to be calling bets drawing to what will be a 1 in 3 shot not knowing I am guaranteed to get the rest of the cash !

There is then of course pushing all in. I much prefer this option. On the flop is the place I am most likely to be ahead in this pot. I am 54% to complete my draw. Now this doesn't mean I am 54% for the pot as it depends what I am drawing against, but I still have a huge draw here.
Of all the hands I could be against I am way ahead alot of them and almost even money against the possible worst ones, there is only 1 hand that I'm in big trouble against.

Against 2 pair I am favourite about 51% - 49%

Against over pair I am favourite about 55% - 45%

Against another flush draw I am slight underdog, now this varies depending on the cards as I still have 2 active cards to hit and win the pot as well.
eg 5c6c v AcQc = 43.33% - 56.67%
5c6c v Kc3c = 45.15% - 54.85%

Still not exactly a total disaster that.

Against a set I am a bit behind, 42.12% - 57.88%

Worst case scenario is to be up against a similar but better hand to my own, ie 9c10c here I am way behind at 27.98% - 72.02%
Amusing that although on the flop the nuts are a set of 8s I am in better shape against the nuts than I am against a draw.

Any other kind of hand like A8 etc I am of course a bit ahead around 56%-44%


Now I am slightly behind in a few of those scenarios but I have to wonder if someone with AcQc is calling an all in bet on the flop ? I would guess no but you never know I guess. I reckon alot of the time I am picking up that pot there and then which is fine. Pick it up on the flop where I am either gonna be slightly ahead or slightly behind worst case scenario. I've put them to a decision for all their chips. Are they really gonna call with AcQc and expect to be ahead ? Also no tough potentially very wrong decisions to make on the turn. If I am putting my cash in for this pot I want it to be on the flop, not on the turn.

It turns out the guy had a set of 7s and called pretty quickly. I made a straight on the turn via a 4 and then he didn't fill up on the river, sweet
Now there's a few things to weigh up. Am I only every gonna be called when I am behind ? I don't think so, I reckon I will get called by 2 pair there quite alot. I also reckon I will be called by people who think I am triyng to steal the pot. I also reckon I will get quite alot of hands to fold there, the hands where I am slightly behind like AcQc hence that adds on a bit to my EV.
Basically if I am called I am gonna be like 42% at worst (bar 9c10c) to win and many other times I am gonna win the 18 BBs that are already in the pot.
I think that certainly makes pushing all in the correct play. Call the 6 and I could put myself in all sorts of bother. I also have no chance of winning the pot there and then by just calling and hence the AcQc isn't going to fold.

Anyway that was my analysis of the hand, agree/disagree anyone ?

[Beanie]

If it was me playing that hand as soon as he reraises I'm pushing all in and not giving it a second thought, but its interesting to read all your thoughts on what he might have(something I still don't do nearly enough.)

I think you hit the nail on the head when you mention that if you just call then the turn(if it doesn't help you) leaves you with a real problem. If it doesn't help you then chances are its not gonna scare him(since you have most of the draws available) and so there's no way you're seeing the river cheaply(perhaps unless he too is drawing, and then you're in bad shape anyway.) Like you say whether you check or bet its fairly likely you'll be left with a bet you can't really justify calling.

I'm always looking to put the decision on other people and this is a prime chance to do just that, with a superb draw to back it up. If he has a bigger flush draw or something then thats just one of those things and you still have quite a few chances to win, so its push every time for me.

[mrmuzeman]

Yeah just go for it when you get 'THE BIG DRAW' as I like to call it, theyre fairly rare to get as it is.

A key thing also to bare in mind is your out of position which when on a draw as you know is a lot worse than having position. Being all in neutralises that whole problem plus of course youve got your folding equity. If you get called well lets flip a coin its no big deal really and you cant fault it. I know the players who win the most money will play like that with these types of hands.

[aliensyndm]

I'm basically certain that all in is the correct play it's just nice to go through the analysis step by step sometimes. Obviously I don't try and attempt to work out the %s during the hand, I already know these anyway.
It's nice in that pot that I hit my draw, I was just waiting on him to fill up on the river grrrrr. It's a nice hand to flop in a tournament as well. Raise all in and pick up the pot there and then or yer a coinflip for it. Obviously it only makes much sense to do this at a stage where the blinds are pretty big. No point getting into a coinflip when the blinds were 10/20 and you have 1500 chips or something !

[mrmuzeman]

I forgot about the stack, what size was it? I presume he didnt have a full buy in at all here?

[Jezza]

Yeah good analysis alien and everyone and btw




ALL IN