An Exercise in Hand Reading

[Jezza]

Hi guys,


Well it is harder to read hands during HU play. Thats because you practically have to play every hand, and ranges for people preflop are an awful lot wider than in usual full ring games. A raise means hardly nothing, I raise practically every button hand I have heads up and most decent opponents do the same. Its a tougher test in general, but the rewards are larger in the long run.
On the flop his call tells us a few things. He must have SOMETHING as I doubt he is calling just to bluff me later on (I suspect this player is capable of that) - if he was going to try that it would not be out of position. There is a straight there already but I doubt he has that as he would have most likely CR the flop with that, or perhaps led it (the flop flush draw plus all sorts of nasty cards that can off means he is unlikely to try and slowplay a straight OOP for sure). If he had two pair then I think he would CR right now given the amount of bad cards than can come off on that board, the same goes for a set. So he must either have a pair on the board, a flush draw, or possibly a straight draw.

The turn is good, it did not complete the flush, it did not pair any of the board cards (to possibly give him trips) and the only straight draw that hit would have been a gutshot (Surely he doesnt have that). So he checks and I bet full pot. Wtf? He min check raises me? This is really weird given our read. I am a bit scared now of J10 incase he really did draw to a gutshot, I guess it would have to be J10diamonds if that was the case. However I am not convinced - its only a min raise. Yes, this is usually the sign of a strong hand but here the stacks are deep and I clearly have some sort of hand. If he really had a straight wouldnt he be trying to get it all in now on this draw heavy board? So why only the small raise? Given our read on the flop that he either had a pair or a flush draw, I think we can discount the flush draw option now from this turn action and it seems more likely that it was the pair now. What has probably happened is that the 9 has made him some sort of pishy 2 pair and he is trying to sucker me in. However if this is the case he has made a mistake by min raising here. I can perhaps draw out on the river and counterfeit him. I can also perhaps bluff if 4 to the str8 or the diamond fell on the river (and it would be a bluff given our read) as I have position. This WOULD be a ballsy play but its definately a possibility. I am sure now he doesnt have a set now also as he would be raising harder with that than letting a card come off on this nasty board. I dont think it is bad to fold this turn, certainly if he had raised all in I was folding. But given the odds we were being layed, the chance of outdrawing, and the chance of bluffing I decided to call.

Well the river was pretty good as long has his 2 pair did not include a 7. I guess we will see from his bet if that is the case. A strong bet here and I am folding for sure. A check and I might consider a value bet (or possibly a check behind just to see, but I would think I was winning). However he does a very small bet in relation to the size of the pot. Its even less than my turn bet before I raised it ffs! Given the size of this pot I am sure that if he had a full house, or even a straight he would bet big. It is clear I have a hand and yet he seems to just want to get to showdown. This is the famous "blocking bet" play that I detest so much (you will remember I took the piss out of it in one of those 4 hands I posted the other week). It turns his hand face up for me. He must have made two pair with the 9 on the turn and now this river has counterfeited him and he is left with just top pair no kicker in this big pot. He wants to get to showdown and he doesnt want raised so he is trying to tempt me into just calling this bet. It is not a bad play to just call here, but I decided to put my money where my mouth (and read) was and raise all in. The pot is huge now and he cant really fold, however it is bet at the end that got him into this fine mess really (And the weak turn raise).

Unfortunately we cant see EXACTLY what he had, because he called me pretty quick and he mucked (I won). HH on this site do not show mucked cards. However I guess I must have been right.

[Feb 14 03:31 pm:39] : Dealing river.
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:39] : Board cards [8s 7d 4d 9h 7s]
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:44] : David W bet $64
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:49] : BBDefendah called $64 and raised $161 and is All-in
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:53] : David W called $161
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:54] : Showdown!
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:54] : Seat 5 : BBDefendah has Ac As
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:55] : Seat 5 : BBDefendah has Ac As
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:55] : BBDefendah has Two Pair: Aces and 7s
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:56] : BBDefendah wins $799 with Two Pair: Aces and 7s

[Jezza]

Here is a really tough hand. Its from 300/600 HU NL on full tilt poker. I should say now that although it is roland de wolfes account playing this hand the big rumour was that it was not de wolfe playing at all, but patrick antonius. This made a lot of sense as he felted everyone that came his way this night. Anyway onto the hand. If it makes it easier (it sure did not for me when I was watching this hand). OMGCLAYAIKEN (who is a high stake online pro as well) has 75o this hand.......What does patrick have (and why do you think this)...

Full Tilt Poker Game #1556505940: Table Halbert (heads up)
$300/$600 - No Limit Hold’em - 3:14:06 ET - 2007/01/08
Seat 1: Roland de Wolfe ($89,000.50)
Seat 2: OMGClayAiken ($31,290.50)
OMGClayAiken posts the small blind of $300
Roland de Wolfe posts the big blind of $600
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
OMGClayAiken raises to $1,800
Roland de Wolfe calls $1,200
*** FLOP *** [9d 5d 9s]
Roland de Wolfe checks
OMGClayAiken bets $2,400
Roland de Wolfe calls $2,400
*** TURN *** [9d 5d 9s] [As]
Roland de Wolfe checks
OMGClayAiken checks
*** RIVER *** [9d 5d 9s As] [7h]
Roland de Wolfe checks
OMGClayAiken bets $6,600
Roland de Wolfe raises to $84,800.50, and is all in

[Scottieboy08]

Do you like Clay's river bet Jez? Is he really value betting on the end (against K high), or to not show his hand? Tbh, it seems like the river principle here. I really don't know if a hand like KT (think Antonius may re-raise with KQ, KJ pre-flop) would call thinking Clay has complete air. I could be wrong though.

Hmm, obviously Clay's 2pair has been counterfeited here. On first look, I think Antonius could have a 9, however he could have something like 6d8d and caught the gutshot on the river. Although I'm thinking Antonius might check-raise the flop with this so it could be less likely. Not a rag-A, just can't see the all-in being a wise move. I would like to point how fukin annoying river check-raisers are at times (so I hate myself at times lol).

OK, i'm going for some sort of 9 (T9, 98, 97, J9 etc.), with a slight chance of it being an 'advertising' air shot. I will look at it later when I've got a bit more time.

[Doc]

very hard to say exactly. He has called $1200 into a $2400 pot, but he'll be out of position for the hand. I'd say he has to have something decent to do that - unless the game has been hyper agressive.

The flop check says that he is either drawing or very confident in his hand. On the face of it, it isn't a particularly threatening flop for many hands that might have raised him. He's called a 2/3 pot bet though, so he definitely has something. A nine is a possibility, but with two diamonds he might well lead or check raise here. I'd say more likely he is slow-playing a big pair or something like 88 or 77.

The turn check is called so we don't get much extra information there

The river is interesting. His opponent has made a 3/4 pot bet after checking the turn, when he could have checked it for free. Having raised pre-flop and continued to get money in the pot you have to read him for part of the flop. I can't see most players check-raising all-in here on a bluff. The A or the 7 has helped him I feel.

A9, A7, 77, 99 and AA are all possibilities here. I'm going to go for AA.

[christianu]

Id fold and just not really know what he has, its a very tough one. Ill come back to it.

Dont tell me he makes a sick call?

[Jezza]

He timebanked and called. Patrick had 22 for basically a bluff. Sick call.