Both players flopping a set

[aliensyndm]

OK this just happened a fucking gain. I cannot believe how often this seems to be happening. My pocket deuces ran into pocket jacks, fortunately I smelt something fishy and only lost 35 BBs but still, rancid like.

[aliensyndm]

AND A FUCKING GAIN. 9s v Ks this time. Luckily it was a smush stack so didn't cost much, still

[aliensyndm]

fucking taking the piss now. 4s v 6s and it stacked me. I cannot believe how often this is happening to me

[aliensyndm]

Ok and now it's 6s v 9s. What the fuck is going on ? Cost me half a buy in this time. Why is this happening to me so often ? Fucking unbelievable

[Jezza]

savage variance for you there alien I mean you know it will happen just as many times in your favour as it does against in the long run blah blah blah but still it is brutal to be on the arse end of it so often as you seem to be recently


Jez

[aliensyndm]

Man I swear I'm getting all the negative shit lately. Good example although not exactly a bad beat is I made the nut flush on an unpaired board and the pot stood at 30 BBs, now some guy had led to this pot from the small blind with a half pot bet and from certain other things I was pretty certain he had something. I bet 15 BBs into a 30 BBs pot with the nut flush, seems a bit mental I know but it disguises my hand well and I'm certain I'm up against something good and don't want outdrawn. The guy check-raised me all in hence my plan works perfectly and I call in about 0.00001 seconds and sure enough he has a set and it fills up on the river to a house

But I did just catch a break and hit a card to bust a guy so I can't complain.
I've just gone through the hand again and I think I played this all wrong, lemme explain......

I have a note on the guy, he seems to like to raise to 4 with AK and will check the flop if he misses. I limped in mid position with K Q suited and one guy limped after me. Now the dude raises to 4 BB from the big blind.
Now KQ suited is a seriously dodgy hand to call a raise with. This I know. Large danger of being dominated by AK. Also flop a K or Q and if it's AA you are in trouble etc. Bad hand to call a raise with I know but I did, the above unchiller just happened to me hence I am a little pissed. Anyway I made the dodgy call and I flop K 10 4 with two of my suit(10 and the 4).
Now top pair with decent kicker and a flush draw. Inviting flop. The top pair is irrelevant though in the sense that if the guy is getting involved in the pot it's probably AK and hence I'm fecked. The pot was 10 BB's and he led out for 5 BBs. Now do I call or raise here ? I chose to minimum raise. Whilst I think it's pretty likely I am dealing with AK it could of course be QQ JJ and they are gonna give the hand up there and then I would think. I should get some information with the raise. He came back over the top and raised it to 20 BBs hence it was another 10 BBs to me to call. Now this is probably where I made the mistake I think. I can of course call the 10 and see if my flush hits or my queen does - I'm basically convinced this is AK and not AA btw. I could of course re-raise all in. Upon this decision there are 40 BBs in the pot. The guy has another 80 BBs or so in front of him. So it would be 80 to win 120 basically. Now I've basically decided it's AK I am against, even if it is AA I am actually better off to win that pot than AK. Obviously the danger hands are KK or 10 10 or 4 4. From what I have seen of the player I don't think it's a set, I really think he would probably check a set rather than lead out half pot.
So if I am against AK I am 46.36% to win that pot - I am spending 80 to make 120 so that's fine. If it's AA without the A of my suit I am 50.1% even better, if it's AA with the A of my suit I am 44.95% but that's still ok.

The problem is I made the wrong decision and just called the 10
The turn didn't make my flush but it was a jack. Ok so I now have an open ender and a flush draw. Not bad but with only 1 card to come I am 31.82%
The guy then led 20 into this pot and I put him all in hoping possibly for a fold. I should have put him all in on the flop after he re-raised to 20 where I may have possibly gotten a fold - although him being a donkey I doubt he would throw his AK there but at least I am pretty certain I am very close to even money for a pot which at the time of the decision I would be getting odds for. I've gone and whacked all the cash in here when I am only around 1 in 3 to to make the hand. Stupid cunt eh ? I got lucky and the river was a 9 and I made my straight. So I guess I can't complain too much about all these sets right ? Still you can see what a dodgy call pre-flop can get you involved in ! Upon the flop if I play it right I am ok but I played it wrong and it could have cost me big time. Recgonise and correct the errors in your play, that's what it's all about !

[mrmuzeman]

Yeah you see Alien and I know you know this - the reason you made dodgy decisons after the flop like min raising, calling when you might raise etc was basically cos you were out of your comfort zone with a hand you shouldnt normally play after a decent raise.

Dont really like the min raise at all (as you know ) id just call there try and hit my flush not bad odds 3/1 with position to boot. Your min raise could scare him into checking the turn and you taking another free card though so theres always that. But if I were worried about AK you could get re-reraised so id keep the pot small and just call that slightly naff bet. You have 3 Q outs as well very likely so the odds are about correct plus with position your very likely get more out of him if you hit.

Im not overly keen on forming massive pots on draws really unless its an epic draw (15 outs on flop) and they have decent folding chance.

[aliensyndm]

Yeah I said it in the initial post, I'm in a pot with a hand I shouldn't be. I mean I have a note on the guy saying he raises to 4 pre-flop with AK and hence I almost "know" his hand and yet still I call fully well knowing I am probably dominated by AK ?!?!? Bad play from myself.
Well the min raise was also hoping to get a free turn if needed yeah, problem is as you say AK might re-raise there and it did.
Why get into coin flip draws with numpties I mean they aren't gonna lay down AK there with a king high flop no matter what I do. That's part of the reason you call these raises with pocket pairs trying to hit a set and hence bust the guy !

[mrmuzeman]

No biggy anyway Alien took a sweet pot with it, getting a more priced in sweet outs scenario as you go

I think you musta got caught in the old but it was soooooted mode and them diamonds are so priddy!

Hardly the worst play ive ever seen or anything so I wouldnt worry too much about it (it was sooooted) but yeah KQ slap on the wrist for Dundee

[Jezza]

Originally Posted by mrmuzeman

KQ slap on the wrist for Dundee

Yeah I am not so much in love with preflop call there - but you already know all that stuff and dundee was obviously feelin frisky

On that flop tho I think you have to play it strong. When he leads into you I would put in a hefty raise and if he comes back again I would just push in. I would also play a set in this spot like this so I feel I have to play this hand the same incase anyone is paying attention to what I raise flops with. You felt commited and if this is the case you should just play it very aggressively to maximise the chances of him folding - this is more likely to happen on the flop than the turn. Not only this but your chances are a LOT better % wise on the flop than the turn and it is better to put your money in there than on a bricked turn (also what happens if a flush comes for you on the turn and he check/folds - you missed some of your equity). If you get his money in on the flop here it really doesnt matter what cards come out, given the hand range you put him on (which I totally agree with) you are never really a dog there so you can quite happily play a big pot.

Jez

[aliensyndm]

Guess what ? Happened a fucking gain. 8s v As this time.
How many times is this gonna happen ?

[Doc]

If I remember our previous discussions on pre-flop strategy, I think you normally like to play small pairs, even to a raise, in the hope of making a set?

At a 10 handed table I'd think there is something like a 50% chance that someone else will hold a pair when you do. The chance of you flopping a set in such circumstances is about 1/8, so as a first approximation there is about a 1/64 chance of it happening to both of you together.

If we account for all of those, we get 1 in 2 times another players has a pocket pair when you hold one, and 1/64 of those you both flop a set. That equates to a little under 1% of the time. Half of those I guess he has a higher pair than you. If we also allow that you get a pocket pair about 1 in 13 times, then about once in every 500 hands is the answer to your question

If you multi-table and other players play similarly in style to you (set-camping), then it would be expected nearly every session!
I guess it happens less often because not everyone plays this way and also you (or the other player) will sometimes be raised off the hand pre-flop.

Our of interest, have you kept any count of the times where you are on the other side of the 'bad beat'?

[aliensyndm]

Erm doc if you read my first post in this thread I give a pretty detailed answer to my own (rhetorical) question.

[aliensyndm]

Which is different to your somewhat wrong explanation there.
Yes it's around 1 in 8 you will flop a set but you can't simply say for both players to do it that it will be 1/8 * 1/8
If one person flops a set, it makes it less likely the other person will.
Would the odds of three people flopping a set be 1/8 * 1/8 * 1/8 ie 1 in 512 ?
Of course not, much much higher. In fact I work it out in this thread and it's only 0.04625%
Chances of both flopping a set works out around 1 in 98 assuming the other person holds a pocket pair.
This also excludes flops where one person flops quads and the other a fullhouse.

[mrmuzeman]

Id estimate that I only manage to flop a set about the same amount Alien gets set over setted lately. I did losed my stack when I flopped top set to a flopped straight though last night but at least I still had a 2/1 chance of escaping