Just a bit of interest for me this thread , and after working out the odds and sods of it all ive decided this is the next attempt to get rich quick or die trying !
Im not totally ruling out 0-0 laying for this challenge ,infact im embracing it ,but what ive realised from looking back at my recent efforts is that i keep getting nailed when laying something 0-0 under the odds of 10 , theres just something that tells me that 0-0 is so random that you may as well lay a a 0-0 @ 8.8 as much as a 0-0 lay @ 30 , but i think ive finally realised this isnt the way to go, unless im convinced otherwise and i have good stats to back up my low priced 0-0 lays .
So for my next challenge i have decided to take the long plan method and go for shorter odds ,roughly 1.06 , and hopefully get a bit of a run going , i know the rewards are small to begin but they do increase gradually and the point of this thread is to get as many consecutive winning football bets as possible as to stop me from have to keep depositing or doing boredom bets and losing thousands !!
Basically i have reckoned up how many 1.06s it would take to turn £30 into £1000, then once i got going i couldnt stop , so i decided to stop at 100 bets ! Sounds a lot , but spread over 2-3 months its just 1 bet a day ,and i`ll be aiming to get 2 in most days when possible .
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all bets at an average of 1.06 (correct score market 5% deduction , total goals market 1% deduction)
So thats the plan anyway , and if i fail i`ll just get up and try again !!
I`ll be doing any bets within football , whatever markets appeal at the time that i can back up statistically and look good enough to throw in the mix . I`ll try to copy and paste my selections before kick off so as the momentum builds you can get a feel of the pressure i`ll be under if and when i get to £1000 mark and it gets hotter than hot !
Wish me luck fellas , 100 winners will be here in no time !!
Thanks fellas , hopefully it will get more interesting as i progress nearer my target . I see it as a good opportunity to get value on these type of bets as traditional bookmakers would of gone something like 1/50 under 4.5 ,wheras betfair enables you to get 1/12 as the traders are looking to get their profits when the 1st goal goes in so lay the original bet at higher odds than i feel it should be . Tha manager of copenhagen said pre-match that this game would be one with very few chances as they NEVER score many goals at home as they play on the counter attack ,which is why they have such a good away record -this season scored 16 away in 4 games yet scored just 1 at home in the same number of games , losing also to ajax at home in the CL yet winning at the amsterdam arena . Then take into account Benficas defensive mindset , they conceded just 6 goals in 12 away CL games last season . In my opinion under 4.5 goals should have been 1.01 (1/100) , so even though its only small stakes to begin with im trying to get into the right mindset to succeed with this task and if i keep getting 1.08 (1/12) on what i believe to be 1.01(1/100) then i will get there eventually !!
(1) Copenhagen 0 Benfica 0 Bet UNDER 4.5 goals @ 1.08 Bank £32.36
For bet number 2 ,after nearly laying Tallinn ,ive decided to go for the under 4.5 route . As though i feel Newcastle should really outclass the hosts here , it is away from home and Newcastle are pretty poor away in all competitions and you NEVER rule the draw in any game !!
In all honesty i cant see Levadia scoring ,though with titus shambles at the back you never know and that would mean Newcastle needing to get 5, impossible with this team of powderpuff nonces , and im certain Newcastle would take a 1-0 or 2-0 win if offered it now, so wont be pushing too much to get 3 or 4 if indeed they do manage get ahead . The last round saw them dominate Ventspills ,yet only win with a late winner and a similair outcome maybe on the cards. Levadia would also probably take a small defeat if offered it ,and this may well not be a very good game to watch with Levadia hoping to keep an away goal going against them against a mighty team from the premiership.
The weather wont be much good for football ,and the pitch is nowhere near premiership standard . All this points to a lack of goals for me .
(2) Levadia Tallinn - Newcastle UNDER 4.5 goals @ 1.13
Bank £36.36
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Slavia Prague are pretty solid at home and will not want Tottenham to get a crucial away goal here so will go pretty slow attack wise from the outset hoping to nick 1 on and take it from there ,they know Tottenham are the better team and wont want to go behind ,especially at home .
Tottenham on the other hand will see this as a winnable tie , tie being the important word ,there is 2 legs and they will be reminded of this ,no chasing the game if they fall behind , and if they manage to get ahead expect them to sit on it , theyre not the best of travellers but are defensively very sound ,rarely conceding over 2 goals in away games ,2 defeats this season have seen a 2-0 loss to Bolton ,both early goals inside 10 mins , and a 1-0 loss an Man Utd where they arguably should of had at least a point .
For me this game will all be about the 1st goal ,and i expect whoever gets it to protect it . This looks a banker low scoring affair ,but as always im taking the safest option on offer and going for UNDER 4.5 goals .
(3) Slavia Prague - Tottenham UNDER 4.5 goals @ 1.09
I managed to get a bit of 1.11 in the West ham game last night ,matched via my mobile internet so couldnt post on here unfortunatley , but i did under 3.5 goals when 1-0 in the 60th minute ,and 1-0 it stayed for another easy win . Slow steady progress is the order of the day .
(1) Copenhagen - Benfica UNDER 4.5 goals when 0-0 after 15 mins @ 1.08 £32.36
(2) Levadia Tallinn - Newcastle UNDER 4.5 goals @ 1.13 before kick off £36.36
(3) Slavia Prague - Tottenham UNDER 4.5 goals @ 1.09 before kick off £39.47
(4) West Ham - Palermo UNDER 3.5 goals when 0-1 60th min @ 1.11 £43.59
Last season Genclerbirligi scored 28 at home ,conceding 18 ,away they scored just 19 , conceding 21 winning 13 drawing 8 and losing 11 , all in all a very mediocre team ,but whos games usually have 2 goals on average , they dont score many nor do they concede many .
Maniasspor where the 3rd highest away scorers last season with 28 behind just fenerbahce 41 and galatasary 31 , conceding a mammoth 32 in 17 away games , and at home they werent shy either scoring 29 and conceding 27 !
Last seasons fixtures both went to Genlcer where they won 2-1 at Gencler and 3-0 at Maniasspor. This season Maniasspor have started on fire scoring goals for fun ,and as usual are very attack minded and no doubt they will ne keen to get after gencler to make up for last years 2 defeats against them ,and gencler who havent started that well will be keen to get their season going against a team they have a great head to head record against . All in all i CANT see this game ending 0-0 as both teams will be eager to attack and feel it is a game they can win for differing reasons .
(5) Genclerbirligi - Maniasspor 1 goal or more @ 1.08 before kick off - starts at 6:00
To be honest I haven't noticed this bet before.Without doubt going to have a crack at this but will put on a seperate thread so I don't hijack yours.
I just know trickrick and kiko will be thinking along the same lines.
Well well probably not a suprise to most R2R regulars, but I've already tried a similar bet here ...Read from post 48 onwards... Still painful viewing..
Very interesting idea MITK. Nice to see Bet 5 landed after 37 mins and the score currently sitting at 0-4. Just as well this wasn't one of your under 4.5 as that would see a pretty sweaty last 5 mins I would imagine.
The longest consecutive winners thread !!
.GIF "Thumb(1)")
