Simple really , rather than BACKING 1+ and hoping for a goal whilst getting increasingly agitated as the odds go out and out with every passing second , ive decided to go the other way and try to LAY big goals numbers at large odds and see how many i can reel off on the spin
Basically i`ll be looking to find teams who dont score or concede many and just lay 5, 6 or even 7 goals . The total goals markets are very favourable to the backer as thats where most people who use Betfair bots set them to work and you`ll notice the odds keep changing every 2 seconds for £2 and £3 bets at odds that i feel are too low to be realistic.
This i see as value , even if it does take a while to get totally matched if your wanting a big bet ,as the odds often are quite short on what should be much bigger for the backer . As a layer i aim to take full advantage of this loophole . Also total goals markets are only 1% commission which also helps
Right here we go then
Tonights French cup between league 2 Creteil and top flight Nice . Sure to be a tight affair , Creteil dont score or concede many and are very hard to break down at home , sure to go defensive here against a higher tier team they`ll be looking to nick a 1-0 and if they do manage to get ahead they`ll be certain to shut up shop . Nice are woeful away from home attack wise ,playing 13 away so far and scoring just 3 goals, but importantly theyve only conceded 13 in those 13 games .Again they are sure to go for a tight backline and hope to nick a 1-0 . All in all everything points to a tight low scoriung affair and a lay of 5+ looks a sure thing .
Bet 1) Creteil - Nice LAID 5+ @ 13.89 to win £3.28
MITK
Edited - Forgot to post it earlier , starting bank £40.00
Last edited by Man In The Know : 05-01-2007 at 20:32.
LOL,thanks (i think) - It keeps me occupied and its a pretty cheap hobby when betting like this. Im past the point were i want to win money , nowadays i just want the interest and things like this add to my already considerable enjoyment of football
Tommorows FA cup tie between Tamworth and Norwich looks to be bad choice if the Beeb were looking to show a giantkilling . Both teams have conceded plenty this season , but importantly for me have tightened up considerably recently . Also with defences being tightened , the obvious has happened and the goals have stopped flowing as freely as they were at the start of the season for both teams.
Norwich have conceded 29 away , but only 9 in their last 6 including a 3-1 defeat at Palace when down to 9 men for a long time ,and conceding 2 in each of the games with high flying Southampton , Wolves , and Sheff Weds who are scoring for fun just now . Norwich have also only scored more than 1 in 1 of their last 12 games , a 2-2 at Wolves. They have to face that calibre of attack here .
Tamworth lie 2nd bottom of the conference , but just like Norwich have tightened up recently , conceding more than 1 just once in their last 8 , that a 2-1 defeat at then league leaders Oxford . They have also only scored more than once in 1 of their last 8 , a 3-1 home win over Woking .
All in all on early season form this game smacks of goals , but recent form says otherwise ,and recent form is key in my mind . Added to that that its live on BBC which will add more pressure ,especially on higher division Norwich , a tight edgy game could be in the offing . Norwich`s class should tell in the end and we should see goals ,maybe 2 or 3, but whatever way you look at it we shouldnt see 6 !!!
Bet 2 is going to be a lay of 6 goals in this game , but i wont have time to write the preview 2moro morning as this game starts at 12:30 so im posting it now .Bet details posted when placed
6 goals or more
14£1.00 Ref: 2848211976 Bet matched: 13:32 06-Jan-07
6 goals or more
14.01£2.00 Ref: 2848211976 Bet matched: 13:32 06-Jan-07LayYour
OddsYour
Stake
6 goals or more
18.84£2.42
Managed to get out at ht when i could see Tamworth tiring once going 2 down for a £4 loss if 6 goals or level if under 6 goals , not doing this anymore , too much like hard work , back to the drawing board
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Total goals LAYS
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Ref: 2848211976 Bet matched: 13:32 06-Jan-07 
