Tri-Nations Rugby Union

[traeth]

Australia v New Zealand

these odds from bet365
Australia 4.50 Tie 26.00 New Zealand 1.20

Australia +12.0 1.90 Hcap Tie - New Zealand -12.0 17.00 New Zealand -12.0 1.90

After seeing the performances against South Afica for both sides , not much difference in the scores ,but the impressive last 10 minutes by the All Blacks compared to the capitulation by the Aussies to South Africa it got to be New Zealand for me .
Last week New Zealand did not overcome the handicap lost me some money. This week the Alll Blacks should have ironed out a number of errors which may see them overcoming the hcap.
From the stats I read on Sunday, New Zealand made 14 handling errors , allegedly one by each player, three handling errors from New Zealand is usually too many for them.
Australian defence was decent against South Africa , South Africa needed two late drop goals to overcome that defence which was still firm at 90 minutes.

Any thoughts before I place my bets

EDIT , re-reading this looks like I change my mind from the start to when I get to the end ..strange

[kompressaur]

A clash of two of the class sides in world rugby await us as arch-rivals Australia and New Zealand do battle at the Melbourne Cricket Ground in Game 3 of the Tri Nations on Saturday.

The competition has been thrown into disarray this past week with revelations that South Africa will send a 'B' side for their away fixtures in the south pacific, bringing the competition into disrepute and rendering it a one-horse race should the All Blacks win in Melbourne.

The Wallabies will be desperate to stop this from happening and have added incentive as the clash doubles as a Bledisloe Cup fixture.

Having been accorded no respect before their match against the Springboks and now feeling outraged at the South African Union's aforementioned decision Australia will need no motivation as they seek to prove that they are still a major force in world rugby.

One way to do this would be with victory over the world's top side but they will be up against it and appear over-matched in most areas.

Their forwards will once again try to hang on by their fingernails as they face a vastly superior pack. They would have got a boost from their showing against the Springboks a fortnight ago and will look to use this as a springboard but, despite prop Matt Dunning's claim to the contrary, the Kiwis will dominate up front.

Where the Wallabies can gain parity or even ascendancy is in the lineout. New Zealand was exposed here to some degree last week and with the likes of Dan Vickerman and Nathan Sharpe patrolling this area for the Wallabies they will fancy their chances.

They should also be able to contest at the breakdown better than the Boks with George Smith a constant menace in the loose.

Once again the keys to victory will be the experienced inside pairing of George Gregan and Stephen Larkham who can and will control the game if given the opportunity to get on the front foot. If this is the case prepare to see their grossly under-rated backline fire.

The Australians have had a week to prepare for the encounter; the All Blacks on the other hand have flown straight to Melbourne from the Republic after last Saturday's hard-fought 26-21 win.

The forwards, in particular the loose trio of Jerry Collins, Rodney So'oialo and Richie McCaw, laid the platform for last week's victory and they will aim to do the same again.

After getting the better of the Boks in the scrums they will undoubtedly have their way with the Wallaby eight in this area of the game and unless the Australians can find a way to gain equality expect penalties and possibly yellow cards to be the outcome.

The Kiwis should also have the advantage at the breakdown with McCaw leading the way. His battle with George Smith will be one to watch and could prove decisive to the outcome.

Chris Jack's return at lock will immeasurably bolster a lineout that was a source of consternation last Saturday but it is still weak spot.

Coach Graham Henry has been forced into naming a re-shuffled backline with Isaia Toeava and Sitiveni Sivivatu both out.

Henry has moved Mils Muliaina from fullback to centre with Leon McDonald slotting into the 15 jumper while Rico Gear takes Sivivatu's wing birth and Luke McAlister is preferred to Aaron Mauger at second-five eighth.

They loose nothing with the changes and Muliaina's distribution skills are a big upgrade over Toeava's so expect the wingers to get more chances than last week.

Once again the keys for the All Black will be getting their share of possession, recycling it quickly and giving Dan Carter plenty of time to make his decisions.

But they know they will be up against it. With a huge crowd at the 100,000 plus capacity stadium and the giant chip the Australians have on their shoulders as motivation, the Wallabies have more chance than any team to pull off the upset.

Prediction: New Zealand by 6 - The All Black's should be too strong but Bledisloe Cup matches in Australia are notoriously close affairs. If Carter has his kicking boots on expect him to be the difference.

Setanta Sports GB - Rugby

[edtkh]

10pts New Zealand -4 pts (1.40 @ Ladbrokes)

Personally, I wouldn't go heavy on this one although, if pushed, I'd have to back NZ to clear the -10 handicap at Ladbrokes. On the back of what I saw against SA last week (Carter's kicking was as horrible as I could ever remember), it's hard to convince myself I should go too big on this one, although I'm convinced a much better showing is on the cards considering NZ are now at home and it'd be humanly unimaginable for Carter to have 2 such terrible games on the trot, can you?

Nevertheless, I'd be more than happy to back NZ on the -4 handicap as they bid to capture the Tri-Nations...

Note the bet is effectively NZ -4.5pts as there's a market for the draw after accounting for the handicap.

[Pie-chucker]

If the ABs line-out continues to stutter then this could be typically Bledisloe close. Blacks won't be helped by flying Durban to 100,000 at the G. I'd call this an NZ win, but only just.

Aus +10 @ evens at 15pts
NZ win by 1-5 points @ 15-2 at 4pts (both bet365)
Ht/Ft Aus/NZ @ 5-1 at 3pts (centrebet)

[Hippy Dave]

Originally Posted by edtkh

I'm convinced a much better showing is on the cards considering NZ are now at home

Umm, I didn't know Melbourne was now in NZ Good luck.

[Hippy Dave]

Ok, here's how I see it.

Carter played poorly against SA - why shouldn't he do that again, maybe he's entering a period pf poor form, even the greatest sportsmen in the world ever have bad spells.

NZ have had a hectic period of playing/travelling. Aus have had rest.

Aus pack showing signs of improvement.

Poor weather conditions will not help NZ's style.

Aus at home.

I'll be selling NZ supremacy on the spreads (around 8 or 9 I think it is). If it looks early on that I may be very wrong, I'll switch to NZ, take an early loss, and hope they crush Aus. The only worry here is if NZ start strong and Aus finish strong. But I'm always happy to take on the chance of that unlikely event happening.

[Hippy Dave]

Well, 15-6 to NZ, but Oz have missed 2 very makeable penalties. I've let my postion ride, and I can still see Oz winning this. They need to sort out the scrum though. Carter has had a poor first half, NZ not that impressive overall - I've got a suspicion that they've done what they always do, and peaked between World Cups once again.

[Pie-chucker]

Yeah, HT and Aus struggling to stay in touch. Spin quote NZ 14-16 and that to me is a buy. Think this will be a kiwi steamroller half.

BUY NZ @ 16 at 3pts.

[Pie-chucker]

That's match supremacy.

[Hippy Dave]

This, in theory, is where Oz's lighter schedule should kick in. Can't see NZ running away with it.

[traeth]

If the All Blacks can eliminate their handling errors they should win easily , their front row and back row are totally dominant at the moment

[traeth]

ref is being fussy in certain areas , lineout and scrums but both sides getting away with slowing the ball coming out of rucks

[Hippy Dave]

It's easy this betting game isn't it

I know they were helped by the yellow card, but Oz were starting to get on top despite their shambolic scrum, and some shocking calls on the line ours by the ref.

I'll say it again, NZ have peaked between WCs, just like they always do

[Pie-chucker]

Great game. When was the last time kiwis ahead at HT and then lose?

Expensive yellow card for me on the HT spreads.

[traeth]

Originally Posted by Hippy Dave

This, in theory, is where Oz's lighter schedule should kick in. Can't see NZ running away with it.

result Australia 20 - 15 New Zealand

good call dave , no points in the second half for New Zealand totally against what I expected

the only plus point for me is that Wales performed well in the first test in Australia