Tri-Nations Rugby Union

[Hippy Dave]

Originally Posted by Pie-chucker

Great game. When was the last time kiwis ahead at HT and then lose?

Expensive yellow card for me on the HT spreads.

They said just after HT that the last 55 matches NZ have led at HT they have won.

[edtkh]

Originally Posted by Hippy Dave

Umm, I didn't know Melbourne was now in NZ Good luck.

Oh yes, I'm sure that's the best you could come up with...

A shame nevertheless...

[Hippy Dave]

Eh?

[kompressaur]

World Cup favourites New Zealand were matched at 1/50 on Betfair before Australia staged a stunning fightback to beat their bitter rivals 20-15 in Saturday's Tri-Nations clash.

With the All Blacks 15-6 up and dominating, some punters on Betfair backed them at 1.02 to win the match - risking £100 to win just £2 - while Australia drifted to an equally eyecatching 35/1 to stage an unlikely comeback.

But when the world's premier prop Carl Hayman was sent to the sin-bin in the final quarter, the Wallabies finally discovered their spring and two converted tries in the last 20 minutes saw them home 20-15.

Betfair spokesman Tony Calvin said: "In international terms, I can't remember too many bigger betting turnarounds in a rugby match in recent years.

"But Betfair punters steadfastedly refuse to believe that the All Blacks won't win the World Cup, despite their past failures to justify favouritism on the main stage, and they are still backing them at 4/9 to succeed England as world champions.

"Australia are surprisingly still available at 14/1, with England dismissed as 41/1 chances."

New Zealand also remain red-hot favourites for the Tri-Nations at a general 1/7, with Australia on offer at 9/2 across the board and South Africa a top-priced 20/1 with William Hill.

Bettingzone

[traeth]

Australia v South Africa (Sat)

These odds from skybet

Match Result Australia 1.20 Drawn Match 21.00 South Africa 4.33

Handicap Betting -11 Australia 1.91 Handicap Draw 17.00 +11 South Africa 1.91

Australia v South Africa (Sat)

Gregan made his debut against Italy in 1994
Australia v South Africa
Saturday, 7 July
Telstra Stadium, Sydney
Kick-off: 1100 BST

Australian fans will get their last chance to see veterans George Gregan and Stephen Larkham in action on home soil on Saturday.
They will form the Wallabies' half-back partnership in the Tri-Nations match against South Africa in Sydney.
Mark Gerrard replaces Lote Tuqiri after the winger was suspended for two games.
South Africa are resting the bulk of their 1st XV ahead of the World Cup and field just two starters from the 22-19 win over the Wallabies last month.
Australia go into the match top of the table on points difference but all three sides have won one match and lost one match and the points difference is negligible.
In addition to bringing in Gerrard, they will also field two enforced changes because of injury.
They are two great warriors of Australian sport and I'm sure they will receive a fitting farewell from the supporters
Stephen Hoiles replaces Wycliffe Palu at number eight and Adam Freier comes in for Stephen Moore at hooker, but all eyes will be on Gregan and Larkham.
Gregan will extend his record for Test appearances to 133 while Larkham will bring up his century of caps.
Both players are retiring from international rugby after the World Cup, with scrum-half Gregan joining French side Toulon and fly-half Larkham moving to Edinburgh.
"We've just been so blessed in this country to have such incredibly consistent players playing in two of our key positions over the past 12 or so years," said Australia coach John Connolly.
"They are two great warriors of Australian sport and I'm sure they will receive a fitting farewell from the supporters on Saturday night in what is such a crucial Test for the Wallabies."
South Africa coach Jake White has been defiant over his decision to rest his big names ahead of the World Cup, which has been heavily criticised by the Australian authorities.
Backs Ruan Pienaar and JP Pietersen are the only players who started South Africa's 22-19 win over Australia in the opening match of the 2007 Tri-Nations in Cape Town.
And Gregan and Larkham's combined caps total of 231 is two more than that of the entire South Africa side which will take the field at Telstra Stadium, the renamed Olympic Stadium.
White has been forced to make a late change with Jannie du Plessis making his Test debut after prop Cobus Visagie dislocated an elbow during training.
Bobby Skinstad continues his comeback after a four-year retirement by captaining the side.

Australia: Huxley; Gerrard, Mortlock (capt), Giteau, Ashley-Cooper; Larkham, Gregan; Dunning, Freier, Shepherdson, Sharpe, Vickerman, Elsom, Smith, Hoiles.
Replacements: Hardman, Baxter, McMeniman, Lyons, Waugh, Staniforth, Mitchell.

South Africa: Fortuin; Paulse, Murray, Olivier, Pietersen; Hougaard, Pienaar; Van der Linde, G Botha, J du Plessis, Ackermann, J Muller, Van Heerden, Wannenburg, Skinstad (capt).
Replacements: B du Plessis, Andrews, Van den Berg, J Cronje, Claassens, Grant, Pretorius.

[traeth]

Australia v South Africa

A strange stat is that the team leading at half time lost the match.
These are the results from the previous games in this years tri-nations .

Saturday, 30 June 2007
Australia 20 - 15 New Zealand h.t. (6 - 15)

Saturday, 23 June 2007
S Africa 21 - 26 New Zealand h.t. (11 - 6)

Saturday, 16 June 2007
S Africa 22 - 19 Australia h.t. (10 - 16)

Australia should be on a high after coming from behind to overcome the All Blacks.
South Africa team is a weakend side from their two home fixtures.

In the handicap betting market none of the teams that were negative have overcomme the handicap , will Australia do it this time?
Any opinions out there?

[Pie-chucker]

I don't think this Springboks B team will be any sort of 'easy meat', certainly not savaged by Wallabies. In places they are going the 13 point handicap and that would be the Boks on handicap for me.

[traeth]

Originally Posted by Pie-chucker

I don't think this Springboks B team will be any sort of 'easy meat', certainly not savaged by Wallabies. In places they are going the 13 point handicap and that would be the Boks on handicap for me.

I agree with you pie about the understrength boks not being an easy game , I would have liked a 16 point handicap and I would have been on South Africa -16 straight away but 13 points are too close to call considering how close the Aussies came in S.A.

Australia have a couple of changes due to injuries Adam Freier coming in for Stephen Moore at hooker and Stephen Hoiles replacing Wycliff Palu at number eight. Hoiles is a completely different number 8 to Palu.
The Aussie perceived weakness of their front row has not been fully exposed due to some excellent "cheating" against the boks and All Blacks , but will they be able to out-think the boks front row and the New Zealand ref again this week?

[Pie-chucker]

Boks to run them close-ish.

Sell Aus/Bok shirt numbers @ 17 at 2pts
1st stoppage in play: try @25-1 at 2pts
Draw either HT or FT @ 12-1 at 2pts
(fixed odds with Centrebet)

[traeth]

this match just about to start and even though i'm not very confident i've got to have a bet so i've had a small bet on Australia -11 my reasoning being:
Top pairing 9 and 10 for aussies
back row superiority
home advantage
too many inexperienced players in one S.A. team

[traeth]

watching this match and S.A. dominating
at 17 minutes S.A. lead 17-0
betfair odds S.A. @1.73 to win
looks a good bet to me so i go to place bet
i get the message ...no money available in the "AUS wallet"..fuck sake
i transfer the money and Australia go and score
now Australia 7-17 South Africa
thanks to a betfair technicality i do not make a bet...save some money , after seeing yesterday's tennis should have avoided in-play betting on the favourite.
At 30 minutes Australia playing much betterthan S.A.

[stonecold]

Wish i had that luck ended my current rags to ritches thread dam aussies

[traeth]

Originally Posted by traeth

Australia v South Africa

A strange stat is that the team leading at half time lost the match.
These are the results from the previous games in this years tri-nations .

Saturday, 30 June 2007
Australia 20 - 15 New Zealand h.t. (6 - 15)

Saturday, 23 June 2007
S Africa 21 - 26 New Zealand h.t. (11 - 6)

Saturday, 16 June 2007
S Africa 22 - 19 Australia h.t. (10 - 16)

Australia should be on a high after coming from behind to overcome the All Blacks.
South Africa team is a weakend side from their two home fixtures.

In the handicap betting market none of the teams that were negative have overcome the handicap , will Australia do it this time?
Any opinions out there?

today's result
Australia 25 - 17 S Africa h.t. (10 - 17)

my bet on Australia -11 lost , i should have taken heed of my own previous post

i'm blaming everyone here who read my post and did not remind me

[Pie-chucker]

Was keen on SA running it close last week, but the trip to Christchurch for these B Boks is a bridge way too far. Despite all the modern physio, diet and recovery techniques, a week between Tests that includes travel still seems to take the edge of a side. eg NZ in Melbourne two weeks ago.

Kiwis (Dan Carter?) haven't really clicked this winter, but I think they will here. There's 10/11 available at a handicap of 23, but I'm going the greedy route to get odds against on a handicap of 24.5 with Centrebet.

NZ -24.5 @ 11/10 at 40pts

Kiwi romp and, at last, handicap overs is the call for me.

[edtkh]

Originally Posted by Pie-chucker

Was keen on SA running it close last week, but the trip to Christchurch for these B Boks is a bridge way too far. Despite all the modern physio, diet and recovery techniques, a week between Tests that includes travel still seems to take the edge of a side. eg NZ in Melbourne two weeks ago.

Kiwis (Dan Carter?) haven't really clicked this winter, but I think they will here. There's 10/11 available at a handicap of 23, but I'm going the greedy route to get odds against on a handicap of 24.5 with Centrebet.

NZ -24.5 @ 11/10 at 40pts

Kiwi romp and, at last, handicap overs is the call for me.

Pie-chucker, what do you make of a NZ -32.5 line? Ladbrokes offering 3.25 for that one which I'm still trying to tempt myself to back...

I've been thinking about this one over the last couple of hours. While I fancy the AB's to clear the handicap as much, my experience with them suggests they very often clear the spread line by quite a fair bit (when they do clear, that is!) especially in the wake of their Aussie debacle the last time out...