Tri-Nations Rugby Union

[traeth]

Starts this weekend , these odds from bet365

New Zealand 1.40
South Africa 3.50
Australia 11.00

New Zealand are a similar price to win this one as they are to winning the world cup in France.
I can only see the All Blacks losing one match , their away fixture in South Africa , New Zealand seem to have the best squad but have been unlucky and have lost four second rowers to injury.
If the All Black do send a slightly weakend side to S.A. they could lose this comp as I see both side beating Australia.

I would rather take New Zealand to win @1.40 in this tournament than to win the world cup @ 1.40

I will post the previews from planet rugby for each nation below

[traeth]

Tri-Nations Preview - New Zealand
Wednesday 13th June 2007
In case you have been living in a cocoon for the past couple of years, New Zealand are the world's number one rugby team.

They are odds-on favourites to take the Rugby World Cup in France later this year, they have a squad depth that creates a green mist of envy over the faces of all of coach Graham Henry's counterparts, they are unbeaten in 23 matches at home (likely to be 24 by the time the Tri-Nations starts assuming they beat Canada) and they play a brand of rugby that has neutrals all over the place swooning with delight.

Most of the players in visiting teams fall over themselves to confess that even against the All Blacks B team - whatever that may be - all the other international A teams would struggle. Everyone tries to find a chink in the armour, but the armour on this team is eerily like the armour of the advanced model in Terminator II: even if you cleave it apart once, it simply melts back together, forms itself into a lethal cutting tool, and then slices its opposition apart.

One final test probably awaits in the form of Jake White's Springboks. White has masterminded the All Blacks' only two defeats of the past couple of years, basing his tactics on size and speed and a shamelessly bullish implementation of the two. Only the Boks have been able to bundle the All Blacks to the floor, and keep them there until the final whistle.

Graham Henry's start-of-year re-conditioning programme could have been a protest against the amount of rugby foisted upon all the players by the various competition bodies, but lurking in the back of Henry's mind might also have been an idea that his players needed just a little more muscle to cope with their likely challengers from across the time zones.

That re-conditioning appeared to be backfiring for a time, with several players getting early-season injuries mid-season in the Super 14, and many not up to speed initially. In the first Test against the weak French, the All Blacks as a team struggled to get into top gear.

But last week's French re-match saw a vast improvement, and it signalled the start of an upward trend for this team. The trick is to know when to peak ... Tri-Nations or Rugby World Cup? Time will tell.

Strengths: The best front row in the world, a perfect combination of physicality and speed in the back-row, the best fly-half in the world, and a set of backs that know each other's ins and outs intimately. Oh, and a reserve XV every bit as good as the first XV in most positions.

Weaknesses: There lingers a doubt about the ability to withstand a sustained physical onslaught, and the line-out is prone to occasional bouts of the yips. But instances of either symptom are few and far between, and becoming fewer and further.

Coach: Graham Henry is an ex-grammar school headmaster who has taken Auckland to four consecutive NPC titles, the Auckland Blues to a brace of Super 12 titles, taken Wales out of a deep slump, and taken New Zealand to the brink of greatness. The Rugby World Cup would cap a fine career.

Captain: Richie McCaw made his All Blacks debut at the age of 20 in Ireland in 2000, and inherited the captain's mantle from Tana Umaga after the Grand Slam tour of 2005 - he had been heir apparent for a long time. He is by some distance the best openside in the world.

Previous campaigns:

1996: Champions
1997: Champions
1998: Third
1999: Champions
2000: Second
2001: Second
2002: Champions
2003: Champions
2004: Third
2005: Champions
2006: Champions

2007 prospects: They really ought to win. There could be a stumble on the road in Durban, but expect the performances to improve and improve as the tournament wears on.

Fixtures:

June 23: v South Africa, ABSA Stadium, Durban - 15.00 (13.00 GMT)
June 30: v Australia, Melbourne Cricket Ground - 20.00 (10.00 GMT)
July 14: v South Africa, Jade Stadium, Christchurch - 19.35 (07.35 GMT)
July 21: v Australia, Eden Park, Auckland - 19.35 (07.35 GMT)

Squad:

Forwards: Ali Williams, Andrew Hore, Anton Oliver, Carl Hayman, Chris Jack, Chris Masoe, Greg Rawlinson, Jerry Collins, John Schwalger, Keith Robinson, Keven Mealamu, Neemia Tialata, Reuben Thorne, Richie McCaw, Rodney So'oialo, Ross Filipo, Tony Woodcock, Troy Flavell.

Backs: Aaron Mauger, Brendon Leonard, Byron Kelleher, Conrad Smith, Dan Carter, Doug Howlett, Isaia Toeava, JoE Rokocoko, Leon MacDonald, Luke McAlister, Ma'a Nonu, Malili Muliaina, Nick Evans, Piri Weepu, Rico Gear, Sitiveni Sivivatu.

By Danny Stephens

[traeth]

Tri-Nations Preview - South Africa
Wednesday 13th June 2007
For perhaps the first time ever, the Springboks head into this year's Tri-Nations series with a sense of fear and awe attached to their name by their opponents.

South African rugby is on a high.

Coming off the back of unprecedented Super Rugby success, with the Bulls and the Sharks both winning home semi-finals, Springbok coach Jake White and captain John Smit seem ready to assert some dominance in world rugby.

Not only has there been domestic success, but the national line-up is looking settled and fairly polished to boot.

The pack is big. There are no two ways about it; it is a big and mean South African pack, and that has always meant something when facing Australia and New Zealand.

The backs, whilst not being perhaps the slickest and most cohesive outfit, are scoring tries - albeit relying on the likes of Bryan Habana and Jean de Villiers to carve them out of nothing.

But perhaps this optimism needs to be tempered somewhat. Whilst the rugby has been plain-sailing, the backroom politics have been torrid, with Jake White incessantly clashing with his employers.

Added to this is the thought that if you get on top of this large South African side, as England did in the first half of their last meeting, the soft underbelly of this side is all too easily exposed, and there is perhaps not a lot left after speed and power are nullified.

Strengths: This team, as said before, is a settled outfit, and the forwards' power must be rated as their chief weapon. Added to that, is the backline's ability to pounce on opposition errors to score quick and easy tries.

Weaknesses: The chief weakness of this side is its conservatism. White is a conservative selector, and the players are big and powerful, but it is questionable whether they have the pattern and ability to win the big games when mere strength is not enough.

Coach: Jake White is under fire, make no mistake. A shocking season last year, which also saw him fall out with the bosses of SA Rugby over contractual and then transformation issues, sees him under vast pressure this year. Added to this, is the endless Luke Watson-saga. Besides the politics, this needs to be the year where White actually proves that all his talk about building the perfect Rugby World Cup combination can come good. It could go either way.

Captain: Hooker John Smit has not always been the public's favourite. And like Jake White, his play has become more and more conservative and traditional. In past years, his form has not been good at all, but this year's Super 14 emerged as his finest performance in a competition yet. He has shown that the players back him, but the question remains whether he is able to lead a Springbok side to victory when they are trailing the All Blacks or Wallabies with only minutes to go.

Previous campaigns:

2006: Third
2005: Second
2004: Champions
2003: Third
2002: Third
2001: Third
2000: Third
1999: Third
1998: Champions
1997: Second
1996: Second

2007 Prospects: All the talk has been positive, and the Australians and New Zealanders have enjoyed talking up the Springboks ahead of this year's competition. But it is going to be a tough campaign for the Springboks. The All Blacks are still the most exciting team in world rugby, and the Australians may be a dark horse if they can hold the fort in the front row. The Springboks will finish second.

Squad: Os du Randt, Gurthro Steenkamp, John Smit (captain), Gary Botha, BJ Botha, CJ van der Linde, Victor Matfield, Bakkies Botha, Johann Muller, Albert van den Berg, Schalk Burger, Pedrie Wannenburg, Juan Smith, Danie Rossouw, Bob Skinstad, Pierre Spies, Fourie du Preez, Ruan Pienaar, Michael Claassens, Butch James, Derick Hougaard, Jean de Villiers, Jaque Fourie, Wynand Olivier, Waylon Murray, Ashwin Willemse, Akona Ndungane, JP Pietersen, Percy Montgomery, Francois Steyn.

Fixtures:

16 June: v Australia, Newlands, Cape Town 15.00 (13.00 GMT)
23 June: v New Zealand, ABSA Stadium, Durban, 15.00 (13.00 GMT)
7 July: v Australia, Stadium Australia, Sydney, 20.00 (10.00 GMT)
14 July: v New Zealand, Jade Stadium, Christchurch, 19.35 (9.35 GMT)

By Chris Waldburger

[traeth]

Tri-Nations Preview - Australia
Wednesday 13th June 2007
The Wallabies are virtually down and out. They are regarded as no-hopers for both the Tri-Nations and Rugby World Cup tournaments - or so their critics would have us believe.

Following the unprecedented poor performances of the Australian franchises in the Super 14 - the Brumbies in fifth place were their best performers, followed by the Force in seventh, while the Waratahs and Reds propped up the bottom of the table - the critics were convinced that the Wallabies are there for the taking.

And they did indeed look vulnerable in their opening match of the year against Wales - they were indeed there for the taking. However, the Aussies showed some real character in coming back to sneak a 29-23 win and then whitewash the Welsh (31-0) in the second Test. They showed further growth in thrashing the Fijians 49-0 the following week.

While a number of questions remain over the Australians' ability to step up in crunch matches, they at least showed they will not be the cannon fodder most expected them to be.

What makes it even more interesting is that with the 2007 Tri-Nations series reduced to a six-Test tournament (two home matches each) - to allow for the
Rugby World Cup which kicks off in France on 7 September - the attrition rate will be a lot less on the teams, which will certainly benefit the Wallabies.

The key for Australia will be how their old guard of George Gregan, Stephen Larkham and Stirling Mortlock perform. These remain the key players for the Wallabies and that is why a shortened event - which reduces the risk of serious injury - can benefit them.

You still wouldn't make them favourites, but anybody writing the Wallabies off do so at their own peril.

Strengths: They have experience in abundance in the backline - three of the wisest heads in world rugby in George Gregan (a world record 123 test caps), Stephen Larkham (107 caps) and Stirling Mortlock (56 caps). Then there is their continuity game. When the Wallabies get this going they trouble any team in the world.

Weakness: Question marks remain over the ability of their tight forwards and their scrum in particular. Any team that puts them under pressure in the set pieces will disrupt their game plan. They also don't have real dept, especially in the 9/10/12 channel.

Coach: A career rugby coach, John Connolly has more than 15 years coaching experience at the elite level. He took over from predecessor Eddie Jones as Wallaby coach in February 2006. The man, known to many in rugby circles simply as 'Knuckles', says he is ready for the challenge of preparing the Wallabies for the Rugby World Cup in France in 2007. But first he has to get through this year's Tri-Nations.

Captain: The decision to appoint 'co-captains' (Stirling Mortlock and Phil Waugh) is seen as both visionary and foolhardy. However, it does allow for smooth transition when the wise old heads of Mortlock, Gregan and Larkham move on next year. After returning from his first tour (Europe November 2006) as captain of the Wallabies, Stirling Mortlock is primed to extend his leadership credentials ahead of the 2007 Rugby World Cup. Phil Waugh became the 74th player to captain the Wallabies, leading the team on against Wales at Millennium Stadium on last year's year-end tour.

Previous campaigns:

2006: Second
2005: Third
2004: Second
2003: Second
2002: Second
2001: Champions
2000: Champions
1999: Second
1998: Second
1997: Third
1996: Third

2007 prospects: They will put up stern resistance, but their tight forwards frailties and lack of depth will count against them. Third place (or last place if you will) finish.

Fixtures:

June 16: v South Africa, Newlands, Cape Town - 15.00 (13.00 GMT)
June 30: v New Zealand, MCG, Melbourne - 20.00 (10.00 GMT)
July 7: v South Africa, Telstra Stadium, Sydney - 20.00 (10.00 GMT)
July 21: v New Zealand, Eden Park, Auckland - 19.35 (07.35 GMT)

Squad: Adam Ashley-Cooper, Alistair Baxter, Mark Chisholm, Sam Cordingley, Matt Dunning, Rocky Elsom, Adam Freier, Mark Gerrard, Matt Giteau, George Gregan, Stephen Hoiles, Julian Huxley, Stephen Larkham, Drew Mitchell, Stephen Moore, Stirling Mortlock (c), Wycliff Palu, Benn Robinson, Nathan Sharpe, Guy Shepherdson, George Smith, Scott Staniforth, Lote Tuqiri, Dan Vickerman, Phil Waugh (c)

By Jan de Koning

[Citizen Kane]

Sorry guys for not posting lately. To be honest I've been busy and rather embarassingly didn't realise Rugby had it's own forum so was periodically checking Other Sports and then logging out.

Any way really fancy SA to overcome the margin tonight v Aussie. SA coming off good Super14 and confidence high will expose a limited aussie team up front IMO. Classy outside backs should enable points to mount late in the game. Aussie will be relying on old heads to keep things close but personally think the SA forwards will be too strong.


1pt SA -12.5 @ 1.95 (Centrebet)

GLA

Cheers
CK

[Citizen Kane]

Not worth it's own thread but NZ v Canada and NZ B v Aussie B games may offer some pointers for AB's form for Tri-nations so will post some thoughts here.

Weather fine in Hamilton at the moment for game tonight.

I may regret this but for the first time in my life I'm tempted on -73.5 start. There is a huge gap between these sides IMO and with the weather fine and players pushing for a top 15 spot I expect a clinical performance tonight.

Junior AB's (NZ B) playing Aussie B in Dunedin tonight and from memory Aussie have never beaten NZ in Dunedin (don't like the cold ). Juniors at -12.5 looks a fair bet.

1pt NZ -73.5 @ 1.90 (Centrebet)
1pt Muliana to score @ 1.50 (NZTab)
1pt NZ Juniors -12.5 @ 1.90 (NZTab)

GLA

Cheers
CK

[traeth]

Originally Posted by Citizen Kane

Sorry guys for not posting lately. To be honest I've been busy and rather embarassingly didn't realise Rugby had it's own forum so was periodically checking Other Sports and then logging out.

Any way really fancy SA to overcome the margin tonight v Aussie. SA coming off good Super14 and confidence high will expose a limited aussie team up front IMO. Classy outside backs should enable points to mount late in the game. Aussie will be relying on old heads to keep things close but personally think the SA forwards will be too strong.


1pt SA -12.5 @ 1.95 (Centrebet)

GLA

Cheers
CK

hi CK , i'm on S.A. -10 @1.91 WITH BET365 on Thursday , they are -11@2.0 today.

i have watched both sides against Wales and England , it was S.A. that looked most impressive of both sides and they were more clinical ,S.A. front row looked good , whilst the Aussies front row was only average.
Gregan made a big difference to Australia and putting Gitaeu back to centre made them much more dangerous , but shows their lack of depth in those key positions.
Home advantage andbthe boost in confidence will be a factor i believe , i realise that White is having trouble but thesies were only average against Wales second choice.

Aussie v JAB on Eurosport now

[traeth]

Result

South Africa 22 - Australia 19... my bet lost

two drop goals to S.A. to win , referee was not very good ,Australia played better than I expected ,South Africa only had one game plan and could not change it.

South Africa v New Zealand next week , got to be the ALL Blacks even after their "poor" win against Canada.

I will post my thought next weekend , and would apppreciate other views as well

[traeth]

South Africa v New Zealand
these are early prices from betfair New Zealand @1.69 South Africa @2.52
before saturday's match i was considering this as the match the All Blacks could lose , i did not see anything in saturday's match to think that either Australia or South Africa can threaten the All Blacks

This preview for the All Blacks from BBC

Saturday, 23 June , Absa Stadium, Durban , Kick-off: 1400 BST

New Zealand coach Graham Henry has named his strongest side so far this year to face South Africa on Saturday.
He has made eight changes to the team that beat Canada for New Zealand's first game of this year's Tri-Nations.
Isaia Toeava replaces Luke McAlister at centre and Carl Hayman, Anton Oliver and Tony Woodcock form the front row.
South African-born Greg Rawlinson ousts Ross Filipo at lock, Jerry Collins is on the flank and Rodney So'oialo plays at number eight.
Rawlinson will be making just his second Test start; his first was also against the Springboks 10 months ago when the All Blacks won 45-26 at Durban's King's Park Stadium, where Saturday's Test will be played.
First-choice lock Chris Jack has remained in New Zealand for the birth of his first child, while three other second-rows, Ali Williams, Jason Eaton and James Ryan, are injured.
The game will be the All Blacks' first in this year's Tri-Nations tournament, which opened with South Africa claiming a last-gasp win over Australia.
Both the Springboks and New Zealand are unbeaten so far this year.
The Springboks will name their team on Wednesday, and may be without injured captain John Smit, who limped out of the win over Australia with a hamstring injury.
The uncapped Bismarck du Plessis has joined the squad as cover, while loose-head prop Gurthro Steenkamp (knee) and flanker Juan Smith (thigh) are also striving to overcome knocks sustained against the Wallabies.

New Zealand team to play South Africa, Saturday 23 June:
Muilaina; Rokocoko, Toeava, Mauger, Sivivatu; Carter, Kelleher; Woodcock, Oliver, Hayman; Flavell, Rawlinson; Collins, McCaw, So'oialo.
Replacements: Mealamu, Tialata, Filipo, Masoe, Weepu, McAlister, MacDonald.

these are the the All Blacks results of the last 10 meetings between the two from Rugby Museum of New Zealand


02-Sep-2006 Lost - 20 - 21 Royal Bafokeng Stadium Rustenberg
26-Aug-2006 Won - 45 - 26 Loftus Versfeld Pretoria
22-Jul-2006 Won - 35 - 17 Westpac Stadium Wellington
27-Aug-2005 Won - 31 - 27 Carisbrook Dunedin
06-Aug-2005 Lost - 16 - 22 Newlands Capetown
14-Aug-2004 Lost - 26 - 40 Ellis Park Johannesburg
24-Jul-2004 Won - 23 - 21 Jade Stadium Christchurch
08-Nov-2003 Won - 29 - 9 Telstra Dome Melbourne
09-Aug-2003 Won - 19 - 11 Carisbrook Dunedin
19-Jul-2003 Won - 52 - 16 Loftus Versfeld Pretoria

I think this could be close so i've taken that early price on New Zealand

the South African team will be selected tomorrow .

[traeth]

this preview and team news for South Africa from the BBC.

S.A. lose their captain Smit , which will be a big loss. The scorer of the drop-goals on saturday Steyn is on the bench again.

South Africa v New Zealand
Saturday, 23 June ,Absa Stadium, Durban ,Kick-off: 1400 BST

South Africa skipper John Smit has been ruled out of Saturday's Tri-Nations Test against New Zealand in Durban with a hamstring injury.
Smit, who is expected to be out for two weeks, is replaced by hooker Gary Botha while prop Os du Randt comes in for the injured Gurthro Steenkamp.

Both the Springboks and New Zealand are unbeaten so far this year.
The game will be the All Blacks' first in this year's Tri-Nations, which opened with South Africa claiming a last-gasp win over Australia.
Smit and Steenkamp both left the field with injuries during that game.
Gary Botha will make his first start for the Springboks while uncapped Sharks hooker Bismarck du Plessis has been named on the bench.
Lock Victor Matfield, who led the Northern Bulls to a first Super 14 title earlier this year, has been named as skipper.
"It was the logical choice," said Springbok coach Jake White. "He's got a wealth of experience and took over last weekend when John left the field."

South Africa: Montgomery; Willemse, Fourie, De Villiers, JP Pietersen; Butch James, Ruan Pienaar; Du Randt, Gary Botha, BJ Botha, Bakkies Botha, Victor Matfield (capt), Burger, J Smith, Spies.
Replacements: Du Plessis, CJ van der Linde, Muller, Rossouw, Claassens, Olivier, Steyn.

[traeth]

South Africa v New Zealand

These are the handicap from bet365
South Africa +5.0 2.00 Hcap Tie - New Zealand -5.0 17.00 New Zealand 5.0 2.00

South Africa have played one tri-nations match
South Africa have home advantage
South Africa have injuries to key players in various positions

New Zealand have injuries/absentees to 5 second rows, so have third choice.
New Zealand look like they are full strength in other positions
New Zealand in their second test against France looked fit,ready and supported well.


This match could be a rehersal for the World Cup final so I can see the All Blacks wanting to confirm their dominance of the rugby world.

Northern hemisphere referee is Alain Rolland (Ireland) , one of the better ones from the N.H. Not usually affected by the home crowd.

I can see this being New Zealand by 12 points , which is on the border for a handicap bet, so my bet is split this week

New Zealand @1.63 with betfair on Wednesday 3 pts
New Zealand -5 @2 with bet365 tonight 2 pts

Anyone else taking an interest in this match?

[Computer Guy]

not taken anything yet, but cant honestly see beyond an AB win

[Pie-chucker]

ABs haven't yet hit their straps - thought performances against weak French were (by AB standards) stuttering. SA are tough nuts on home soil.

But. Blacks are fresh and should be too good. I'm taking their performance superiority on the spreads (22-30). It's 25 pts for a win, for starters, and ABs should be comfortably over.

BUY superiority NZ/SA @ 30 at 2pts

[traeth]

today's result
South Africa 21-26 New Zealand
The All Blacks come from behind with two late tries to beat the Springboks in their Tri-Nations clash in Durban.

which means a very slight loss for me , Carter missed three penalties , which is a rare occurance which cost me , cannot see the All Blacks losing the rest of the matches now unless they decide to rest a lot of players

[Pie-chucker]

Supremacy made up at 25. Bloody missed penalties, all gettable, turned decent profit into small loss.

ABs in Melbourne next Saturday. I would expect one of Henry's 5 or 6 personnel changes.