Guinness Premiership: this Weekend

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It was a fairly low-key start to the Guinness Premiership last weekend as the Rugby World Cup rumbles on and the majority of English rugby fans were still feeling the hurt from their international side's abject performance against South Africa when the first games kicked off at 3pm last Saturday.

England looked a shadow of the side that lifted the trophy in 2003 and whilst no-one expected the side to match that of the Springboks in terms of ability, they certainly expected them to go down fighting. However, Josh Lewsey's nonchalant kick out of touch in the game's last moments summed up the passion and desire in the England first XV at the moment and radical changes are needed if they are to ever reach the giddy heights of 2003 again.

Back to the domestic front and there were wins for Bath, Harlequins, Newcastle, Gloucester, Leicester and Saracens, with the latter being particularly impressive against Wasps away from home. However, Ian McGeechan's men are seriously under-strength with the World Cup going on at the moment and it would unwise to read too much into that result.

Nevertheless, one performance that stood out last weekend was Lesley Vainikolo's debut for Gloucester at Leeds on Sunday. The ex-rugby league star not only scored in his first league game for the club but added another four tries to that as the Cherry and Whites destroyed Leeds at Headingley. The top try-scorer in the Premiership last season only managed nine so the Volcano is well on his way to achieving this and the 5/2 still available with bet365 that he finishes the season as top try-scorer could look very big indeed after a few weeks or so.

The opening results of the season have split the layers somewhat with Coral's favouring Gloucester in their regular season betting - going as short as 6/4 about the Cherry and Whites - whilst Hills are siding with Leicester, 15/8 being shortest in the industry. However, after a shaky first ten minutes, Gloucester looked very good last weekend and it would be no surprise to see them as firm favourites to top the table after the World Cup has finished.


LEICESTER v BATH (Saturday, 15.00)
Leicester recorded a comfortable 26-13 victory away to Bristol last weekend to get their Guinness Premiership campaign off to the perfect start and they will be looking to add to this when they host Bath at Welford Road on Saturday afternoon. Leicester have only lost one of their last 38 Premiership matches at home and Bath will have to be at their best here to break that run. Steve Meehan's men have only won one of their last ten matches at Welford Road and despite a morale-boosting win over Worcester at the Rec last weekend, they should struggle here. Leicester have not won their first two Premiership matches since the 2000/01 season but it would be a massive shock if they weren't to replicate that here.

Verdict: Leicester by twelve.

HARLEQUINS v LEEDS (Saturday, 17.00)
Harlequins have started the season with a narrow 35-27 win over London Irish at Twickenham - a victory they can attribute to Chris Malone, their new fly-half signed from Bristol over the summer. They will be looking forward to big things from the Australian and they have another opportunity to record a win this weekend when they host relegation favourites Leeds at the Stoop this Saturday. Leeds fought hard last weekend against Gloucester but were ultimately outclassed and they can expect more of the same from a streetwise Quins side here. Dean Richards' men are in good form at the Stoop and have won their last five matches there. The Middlesex venue used to be a bit of a fortress and Quins will be hoping that they can make this the case again this season. However, Leeds do have a fair record against the London side in the Premiership and although they have yet to record a victory in the league since they beat Worcester at home back in February 2006, they will be hoping that they can get their season off to a flyer by producing a shock result here. However, I cannot see it happening and whilst Leeds may not be as bad as people suggest, they may just need a few more Premiership games under their belt before they record their first victory back in the top flight.

Verdict: Harlequins by ten.

WORCESTER v WASPS (Saturday, 17.00)
Worcester and Wasps both suffered reverses last weekend, with the Warriors losing to Bath and Wasps on the receiving end of a beating from Saracens, which means that this weekend's fixture at Sixways has a little more spice to it as neither side will want to lost two on the bounce in the Premiership. Worcester have won their last three at Sixways - which were all last season when they cheated relegation. Their predicament last year came around after a bad start to the season and new coach Mike Ruddock will not want a repeat of that scenario. Wasps are having real trouble on the road at the moment and having lost to Saracens at Twickenham last Saturday, they will view this game as a must win if they are to have any ambitions of topping the table this season. Nevertheless, it is hard to make a rock-solid case for Ian McGeechan's men. They were always chasing the game and having lost ten internationals, their team did look a little inexperienced. Hence, this could be a good time for Worcester to capitalise here and they may well rate a decent bet to beat their more illustrious opponents this weekend.

Verdict: Worcester by five.

LONDON IRISH v NEWCASTLE (Sunday, 15.00)
London Irish were beaten narrowly by Harlequins at Twickenham last weekend and whilst they had chances to win the match, they could not take them and hence they return to the Madejski Stadium this weekend to face Newcastle, who made the perfect start to the season by beating Sale at Kingston park last Sunday. The Exiles have a cracking record at the Reading venue and will certainly be suited to playing back in front of their home fans. Newcastle have been in good form of late up in the north east, but their fortunes vary away from that ground and they have only won one game from their last fourteen - which was against Sale back in November 2006. Probably more telling for this fixture though is the fact that the Exiles have won their last three games against the Falcons in all competitions and should make it four this time around - especially as Newcastle have been further weakened this week with the loss of Toby Flood who has been called up to the England squad. Newcastle should fight hard in this match but expect Irish to ultimately come out on top.

Verdict: Irish by seven

SALE v BRISTOL (Sunday, 15.00)
Sale were massively disappointing last weekend against Newcastle, eventually going down 33-12 to the Falcons. Philippe Saint-Andre's side were always chasing the game and when Chris Jones got sin-binned in the second-half, it was virtually game over as Newcastle scored 14 points without reply. Sale need to be winning these games if they are to replicate their championship winning season of a year ago and Saint-Andre will be expecting nothing less than a win from his side as they begin a new season in front of the Edgeley Park faithful. Last season's surprise package Bristol also got off to an inauspicious start when they were beaten at home by Leicester and could find this season a whole different kettle of fish. Amazingly, Sale have only won one of their last ten Guinness Premiership games - where Bristol beat them twice - but it should be a different story this time around with Charlie Hodgson back in the squad. The fly-half is a different player in front of the Sale crowd and last weekend's return to action should have brought him on a treat. On form, you could go for neither of these sides, as Bristol have also lost their last three in the league, though an injury-free Sale side is a different proposition to the one that limped towards the end of the last. Sale should spark back into life this weekend - they'll have to if they harbour any league aspirations.

Verdict: Sale by twelve.

SARACENS v GLOUCESTER (Sunday, 15.00)
This is an early season top of the table clash after both sides posted impressive victories last weekend. Gloucester - aided by a spectacular debut by Lesley Vainikolo - easily overcame Leeds at Headingley whilst Saracens won one of the double header games at Twickenham against last season's Heineken Cup champions Wasps. Sarries are beginning to bring some consistency to their game - something which has held their progress back for the past five or so years. They have now put together a run of six games unbeaten at Vicarage Road and it is that sort of form that coach Alan Gaffney will be hoping lifts them from nearly men to genuine Premiership contenders. Gloucester though will be a tough nut to crack and the Premiership favourites will be in a really strong position if they manage to win this match on Sunday. Although a lot of the spotlight will be on Vainikolo, the rest of the squad ooze class and they look set to be there or thereabouts at the end of the season. This game is a tough one to call and I wouldn't be surprised to see either side win. Sarries will fancy their chances given that they are playing at home but Gloucester looked sharp last weekend and they get my vote.

Verdict: Gloucester by four.

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