Rugby Union: 24/25th Nov

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Odds from STAN JAMES

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I thought i would just lump them together. 1 thread would be great. 3 would be asking too much. then again i think folks like things split up into smaller sections. In time they all develope and comes together. This always seems to be on sky sports News when im at work Saturday night. I used to enjoy betting on it. Saturday nights at 5pm etc. That wont help any of you today. Right poker + concentration. good luck folks

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Boks packing too much power
by Geoffrey Riddle

WALES are readying themselves for the arrival of recently-appointed coach Warren Gatland, who starts in his post next week.

But by this evening the New Zealander may realise how much work he has on his plate as newly-crowned world champs South Africa should win the inaugural Prince William Cup match in Cardiff.

Caretaker coach Nigel Davies has a rotten role trying to prepare a squad for a one-off match and you have to admire the way he has gone about it.

The likeable head man has made some decent decisions with his hand on the tiller, the best of which has been to recall burly centre Gavin Henson for his first start in red for over a year.

Henson provides a focus to the Welsh attack that they have lacked since he last played a regular role back in 2005.

Ospreys team-mates Sonny Parker and fly-half James Hook will look to the Bridgend boy to make space in attack, and to limit the oncoming traffic from the opposition midfield.

Henson will also assist Hook in the kicking department and his thumping boot has been noticed by Coral, who make him 5-1 to score a penalty from inside his own half.

The Springboks come to town after a slightly fortuitous draw saw them lift the World Cup only five weeks ago. Nine of the starting 15 who defeated Brian Ashton's team in the final make the run-on side again, although the highly-touted triumvirate of Victor Matfield, Fourie du Preez and metronomic kicker Percy Montgomery all miss out.

Departing coach Jake White can still call on some of his most trusted lieutenants however, and skipper John Smit, wild-eyed flanker SchalkeBurger and the speedy Bryan Habana all line-up. The key selection is Smit though, and the hooker can lead the pack in the crucial sub-plot of the fixture – the forward battle.

The visitors should strangle the life out of the Welsh eight, and the presence of Rhys Thomas at prop in his first start in a Welsh jersey should be a serious concern for both him, and Welsh supporters.
Only two months ago an under-strength Australia went to Cardiff and came away with a 12-point victory to top Pool B at the World Cup.

South Africa are certainly not the same side that swept all before them in France, but a seven-point deficit looks too low for a squad of comparable ability to the Wallabies.

The Millennium Stadium's roof is due to be closed, and without the elements taking a hand in the outcome, the 8-11 about there being more points in the second half looks value.

Before the World Cup, Wales couldn't buy a point in the second half of a Test but that all changed as the principality's need to chase the game increased with each fixture.

The Springboks scored and conceded more points in the second half than in the first during the French jamboree and at these levels we have to get involved.

Recommendations
South Africa -7, 3pts 10-11
More points in the second half, 1pt 8-11

WALES M Stoddart; M Jones, S Parker, G Henson, T Shanklin; J Hook, D Peel; G Jenkins, H Bennett, R Thomas, I Evans, A W Jones, C Charvis, R Sowden-Taylor, J Thomas
Replacements T R Thomas, D Jones, L Charteris, A Popham, M Phillips, S Jones, T James

SOUTH AFRICA R Pienaar; J P Pietersen, J Fourie, F Steyn, B Habana; A Pretorius, R Januarie; C J Van Der Linde, J Smit, J Du Plessis, B Botha, J Mulle, S Burger, J Smith, R Kankowski
Replacements B Du Plessis, H Van Der Merwe, A Van Den Berg, H Lobberts, W Olivier, A Ndungane, C Jantjes

Venue Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
Referee C White (England)
Weather forecast Stadium roof closed

www.racingpost.co.uk

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The quirks in the domestic fixture list means that the Guinness Premiership returns for one week only this weekend, sandwiched as it is between Heineken and EDF Energy Cup matches.

The last time we visited the domestic league was back in October, where Gloucester lost their unbeaten record, eventually going down 15-10 at London Irish. The Cherry and Whites narrowly top the table by a solitary point from fierce rivals Bath but the layers reckon their lead will be much more than that at the end of the regular season, making Dean Ryan's men a general 4/6 shot to go into the Championship play-offs as top seeds.

Leicester are next in the market, varying from 10/3 with Ladbrokes to 9/2 with Boylesports. The Tigers haven't made that good a start to the season and are currently six points off the top and I would imagine with the Heineken Cup now their priority, they will just do enough to reach the Premiership knockout stages and that second and third is now their realistic target.

Second placed Bath may only be a point behind Gloucester, but they will be wary of the fact that several teams will improve markedly now they have all their international players back from World Cup duty and they will be hoping to cling on to their top four spot for as long as possible. Qualification for the knockouts is a possibility but a general 14/1 quote sums up their chances of topping the table.

At the foot of the table, Leeds are still 1/4 favourites to be relegated, though their narrow 26-21 win against relegation rivals Worcester a couple of games back has done their chances of survival the world of good. The Warriors are next in the market at a biggish looking 13/2 with Betfred, given the fact that it already looks a straight fight between these two teams for the bottom spot. Worcester currently prop up the table and both sides will be looking to pick up losing bonus points from tricky looking games this weekend.

BATH v BRISTOL (Saturday, 14.15)
Bath have made a very good start to their Premiership campaign and their second place in the league is fully deserved on their performances so far. Their only defeat in their last eight games in all competitions came at Edgeley Park in the EDF Energy Cup against Sale back in September. Steve Meehan's men have also turned the Rec into something of a fortress and they have now been unbeaten there for a year since Bristol beat them back in November of last year. Bristol will be flying after their hardfought win over tournament favourites Stade Francais in the Heineken Cup last Sunday. Although Stade will point to conditions hindering them massively at the Memorial Stadium, Richard Hill's men played superbly and fully deserved their victory. However, this weekend's match may well be the hangover from this performance, as we see teams lose time and time again after a big performance in a cup competition the week before. Nevertheless, Bristol will fancy themselves in this local derby here, having only lost once to Bath in their last six meetings. Records are there to be broken though and with Bath having played in the eminently easier European Challenge Cup the week before, they should come into this match the fresher side and can come out on top on Saturday afternoon.

Verdict: Bath by ten.

LEEDS v LEICESTER (Saturday, 14.45)
The 1/4 offered about Leeds finishing bottom of the table seems very skinny to me at the moment, as although they are playing in the European Challenge Cup, they have shown they can win matches and having won three of their last four, they won't be short on confidence - even if they lack a bit of quality - when Leicester visit Headingley on Saturday afternoon. Leicester have had a mixed Heineken Cup campaign so far, being soundly beaten by Leinster on the opening day of the tournament before bouncing back to form with a 39-0 victory over Edinburgh last weekend. The Tigers have lost their last three games away from Welford Road and their last victory on the road was a narrow 20-17 win against Wasps at Adams Park in the midst of the World Cup. Leicester should win this but it won't be easy for Marcelo Loffreda's men as Leeds will have their tails up at the moment and should give them a couple of early scares. However, cream usually rises to the top in the (aptly named) Guinness Premiership and Leicester should have more than enough firepower to deal with Leeds here and get their domestic season back on track.

Verdict: Leicester by twelve.

GLOUCESTER v HARLEQUINS (Saturday, 15.00)
League leaders Gloucester have also made a stunning to start to the Heineken Cup and it's becoming clear that they are the side in England to beat at the moment. Of course, to win both competitions takes a very special side indeed and it remains to be seen which tournament they put their heart and soul into but from what I've seen so far, the Cherry and Whites seem more than capable of juggling the two successfully. Harlequins have not been as successful in the Heineken Cup so far, but had previously made a very good start to their domestic campaign and will be no pushovers for Gloucester at Kingsholm - especially if there is a downpour or two. The Cherry and Whites have an excellent record against Quins, having won nine of their last ten fixtures against the Richmond-based side. In fact, Quins' last victory at Kingsholm came back in 1999, so this gives you some idea of the dominance that Gloucester have had over their rivals this weekend. The Gloucester juggernaut should keep on rolling this weekend but I'm not sure I'd be taking handicaps of 12 and above on the Cherry and Whites, especially with unsettled weather forecast, as Quins are no mugs and could push them all the way.

Verdict: Gloucester by eight.

SARACENS v LONDON IRISH (Sunday, 15.00)
Saracens came close to pulling off a Heineken Cup shock last weekend when they ran Biarritz tantalisingly close 22-21 down in the south of France. However, they lost nothing in defeat and come into this match in a good run of form which was only disrupted by a home defeat to Gloucester back in September. London Irish come here safe in the knowledge that they are the only side to have beaten league leaders Gloucester in the Premiership this season - a dour 15-10 victory a few weeks ago. They have since had a successful sojourn in the Heineken Cup, with back-to-back victories over Treviso and the Dragons to add to their CV and they should go into this game brimming with confidence. However, Vicarage Road has become a difficult place to get a result and Irish will have to be at their very best if they are to beat Sarries on Sunday. However, the strange statistic that surrounds this game is that whilst other teams have tried and failed to win at Vicarage Road, Irish love it here having won five of their last six matches here. Nevertheless, Sarries did do the double over the Exiles last season and could well do so again this time around. As with a lot of the games this weekend, I would be wary about taking too high a handicap on Sarries but they should do enough to win.

Verdict: Saracens by six.

WASPS v NEWCASTLE (Sunday, 15.00)
Both of these sides have made an inauspicious start to the season with Wasps especially disappointing so far. However, Ian McGeechan's men were missing several players - including key England squad members - during the first few games and their re-introduction to club rugby has seen an upturn in the fortunes of Wasps Rugby Club. Wasps have lost only one of their last six games in all competitions and they're now ready to transfer this change of fortune to the Premiership. Newcastle are struggling in the Premiership of late and their away form need serious attention should they harbour any ambitions of reaching a Heineken Cup place this season. Their last win on the road came just over a year ago when they beat a struggling Sale side 26-18 at Edgeley Park and they've not come anywhere near a win away from home since. This shouldn't change this weekend, as Newcastle have an appalling record at Adams Park and have yet to win a match there. The two previous games last season went the way of the home side and this should certainly happen on Sunday afternoon. Wasps need some victories under their belt if they are toqualify for the Championship knockouts at the end of the season and whilst they are not out of the running by a long stretch, they are playing catch-up and do need some points on the board. Depending on conditions, don't be surprised to see them go for the bonus point here.

Verdict: Wasps by fourteen.

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