Six Nations 2008

[Pie-chucker]

In half their last 10 games England have been tryless and averaged 1.3 tries per game.
Can't see this as being an England carve-up against these tough nuts. Think this will be close.

11pts Italy +7 HT handicap @ 10/11

[traeth]

some of my six nations betting principles

go with italy at home with the handicap at h.t.
go against england on the handicap as they are overated
go with the form sides
go with the new coach

i've been gloating all week about our win against a poor second half England but today i'm going against all my principles and having a bet on England -6 h.t. @ 1.91 stan james.

my reasoning
I like the look of England's back row , I was impressed with Flood in attack last week, Italy were lucky not to be well behind last week when the rusty Irish missed a few early chances. Wilkinson should kick for territory ,Borthwick and Shaw should disrupt their lineout and the scores should come [ hopefully two early tries]

[Doc]

and the counter........

Wales were crap for the first half of that game and made England (who were quite good) look better than they were.

England have little experience in the back row. 9 and 10 are crap (at least at the moment). Flood is a tidy footballer but poor in defence. Vainakolo has about the same work rate as an Arab ice sculptor
Balshaw is quite possibly the worst (as in net points gifted to the opposition) international player in the world right now.

Italy +13 for me.

Forza Azzurri!

[traeth]

Originally Posted by traeth

having a bet on England -6 h.t. @ 1.91 stan james.

my reasoning
I like the look of England's back row , I was impressed with Flood in attack last week, Italy were lucky not to be well behind last week when the rusty Irish missed a few early chances. Wilkinson should kick for territory ,Borthwick and Shaw should disrupt their lineout and the scores should come [ hopefully two early tries]

h.t. score Italy 6-20 England...

coming from two early tries , England average , Italy poor...you need England to implode again Doc , could happen the way they are playing ,making basic mistakes

[slick]

they didnt quite impolode but your bang on with them making basic mistakes once more as they did against the Welsh last week, Englands defence is the worst i've seen for a long time.

I enjoyed the French game last night and for a short while thought the Irish were going to pull it off, it did show the French are very beatable and the way the fixtures now pan out I wouldent be surprised to see wales win the grand slam so long as they keep focused on that Ireland game and not to to far ahead to meeting the French at the Millenuim staduim

[traeth]

week 3 these odds from bet365

23 Feb 15:00 Wales 1.12 Italy 6.00 Tie 34.00
23 Feb 17:00 Ireland 1.16 Scotland 5.00 Tie 26.00
23 Feb 20:00 France 1.36 England 3.20 Tie 23.00

the handicaps

23 Feb 15:00 Wales -13.0 1.90 Italy +13.0 1.90 Tie 17.00
23 Feb 17:00 Ireland -12.0 1.90 Scotland +12.0 1.90 Tie 17.00
23 Feb 20:00 France -7.0 1.90 England +7.0 1.90 Tie 17.00

From what i've seen up to now I think that i'll be going with the home teams to overcome their handicap.

I will be posting more throughout the week , any other thoughts out there?

[Snodser]

Hi all, new member, so would appreciate remarks on do's and don'ts.

My view, for what its worth.....

Munster & Leinster both won this weekend, So the Irish should be on a high.
Bortulussi(10), who has scored most of Italys points, is reported injured (shoulder)and unlikely for saturday.
Poitrenaud broke his leg yesterday so is out for France. Floch replaces him which is probably good news for France if unfortunate for Poitrenaud.
Clerc 2 tries and Heymans 1, were on fire for Toulouse this weekend.

I agree with traeth, home teams to win, but have a litte doubt about Ireland winning by 12. Ireland are overly dependant on O Gara and Scotland will probably field Paterson, who does not miss often.

Then again, I am a greenhorn.

[traeth]

welcome snodser , great to have a knowledgeable new member.

my reasoning for Ireland to beat the handicap is that they appear to be improving in this six nations , they looked a bit rusty in their opening match and did not have any luck in the first half when they should have scored two /three tries .Their second half performance against France was very good.
Scotland on the other hand appear to be getting worse , they were unlucky early on in their match against France , they looked poor against an average Wales performance and never looked like scoring a try . Their only scoring threat were their penalties.

[Snodser]

Thanks traeth,

I agree that Ireland are getting better, then again could they have got any worse?
They did play well but the french defense was excellent.................................,
...........in the 1st half .........................also, playing three Fiats (Demsey, Murphy & Kearney) against the French back three Ferrari's,
added to a bit of bad luck with the bounce of the ball, were some of the reasons for their defeat.

They did fight back, by using "the Munster way" led by O'Gara, not O'Driscoll!
and strikingly, not using the style/method imposed by the coach(EOS).
They were helped by the French assuming it was all over and throwing on some very inexperienced players, some patently out of thier depth.

Scotland did not impress but are "canny" enough to draw the Irish into a trench war, throw in a bit of rain and swirling wind (ok, that is rare in Dublin in febuary) and you could get a lowscoring game.
I will be checking the weather forecast and team selection in the hope that EOS has made some much needed changes.

PS: Forgot to mention, the very experienced Pape along with the solid Milo-Chuslki are back in the french squad, more good news for the french.

PS2: Backing Ireland for the Triple crown and France for the Championship(again!).

[Pie-chucker]

Welcome Snodster!

Scotland have gone over once in last 5 games; Patterson boot again for points. The mediocrity of these two will all but cancel itself out. Suppose Ireland could sneak over the handicap.

Wales over. Too much ambition in the backs but they'll have to play both halves.

England have scored 24 pts in the 2nd half of their last 5 games. Total. All Jonny boot.
Frogs too good.

What will the 3 homes accumulator pay? 1.85? Looks to be one way in.

[Snodser]

I like the home accumaltor, also having a look at alternative handicaps with PP. Any thoughts anyone?

[Snodser]

Some examples, W-7, I-6 & F-3 pays approx. 3/1
W-4, I-3 & F-3 pays approx. 5/2

[Ceirtlis]

There was abit too much back slapping in Ireland about their performance against France for a team that lost. There is no doubt that if the game had of gone on another 5 minutes Ireland would probably have won but in all honesty i dont think they would have been within 10 points had the French coach not starting bringing on 19 and 20 year olds towards the end. Im not convinced that Ireland have turned the corner yet after some truly horrendous performances but after the france game there is at least some positive to build on. Scotland have offered nought so far. I can see Ireland just squeezing over the 12 point handicap.

[Pie-chucker]

On the alternative handicap, I'd put in Ireland -18 at 13-8 to increase value or allow you to go conservative on the other two.

Ireland gave away ONE penalty against France. If they can keep that discipline, where are Scots points going to come from?

SELL Scotland multi-points @ 50
SELL total score @ 40

[Snodser]

I see your point on Irl -18 but I am too chicken to take it!
Thanks all the same.

France are being very brave with their 9 & 10.
Not saying they are bad players but Parra is 19 and Trinh -Duc 21 & france England are always "hard" games, I believe England will target them from the off.
Milo- Chulski has had to drop out injured.
Traille to kick, not something he does every weekend.

Murphy replaces Dempsey at 15 for Ireland, don't think it will make much difference.
May see O'Driscoll leaving the field early, he passed a fitness test today but I doubt he will last the match.

I don't believe any of the above will alter wins for the home teams this WE but I will have a look at +h/cap for the away teams.

All thoughts much appreciated.