Six Nations 2008

[traeth]

i've gone with my early feelings and have gone with the home teams to overcome the handicap
Wales -13.0 @ 2 with bet365
Ireland -11.0 @2 with bet365
France -6 @ 2 with sportingodds

I cannot see the Irish giving much away at Croke Park and have yet to see anything from Scotland.

I agree with you snodser that the French have inexperience players at 8,9 and 10 in Parra, Trinh-Duc and Picamoles. It has been reported that they have less than 100 minutes of international experience between them. I was considering a large bet on a French win @1.45 , but with Elissalde injured I have decided against it and have had a free bet form betfair on the straight win. With those inexperienced players and Englands poor second half performances the one bet that I'm going to consider overnight is the h.t./f.t. of England/France . My thinking being that England will start well and kick a few penalties but once the French management realise their mistake and introduce their experience from the bench in the second half.


I would appreciate any comment regarding the ht/ft bet as I'll decide at lunch time.

[Snodser]

I've gone with straight wins and smaller h/cap wins for the home teams.(chicken, I know)
After seeing the France -Ireland game I won't be going near ht/ft.
France are too unpredictable.

PS: would not be surprised to see some yellow cards........

[traeth]

France 13 - 24 England h.t. (7 - 13) ...good English performance will stand them in good stead for their trip to Scotland in two weeks time

Ireland 34 - 13 Scotland h.t. (14 - 6) ...Scotland were more adventurous them previous games but Ireland punished them with some decent tries ,Scottish were defensive poor in the second half.

Wales 47 - 8 Italy h.t. (13 - 8) ...poor first half performance from Wales and Italy did look dangerous until that intercepted try which resulted in Italy being downhearted and Wales getting that surge of confidence .Shows how much a difference one mistake can make in international rugby. Lets hope we don't get overconfident for that triple crown match , its never easy in Dublin for the Welsh.

two out of three for me this weekend

[Snodser]

Lucky rebound for England in the 1st half , a ref who is and has been a disaster in international rugby for a long time now, France panicking and running the ball for the sake of it lost them the game. They really have a mental block when it comes to England.

Italy revealed an excellent fullback, unlucky with 2 kicks off the posts. They have taken the place of the French in the penalty stakes--- in case of doubt the ref will always go against them----- How the welsh 5 avoided the bin we will never know.

Ireland showed some magnificent finishing and allround discipline but the Scots were very naive.

I know you want it Traeth but I can not see Wales beating Ireland in Dublin & strange as it may seem I believe Irland may come out of Twickenham with the Triple crown!
Wales may have a chance in France but I feel it may end in tears.............hope I'm wrong;=)

[traeth]

Originally Posted by Snodser

I know you want it Traeth but I can not see Wales beating Ireland in Dublin & strange as it may seem I believe Irland may come out of Twickenham with the Triple crown!
Wales may have a chance in France but I feel it may end in tears.............hope I'm wrong;=)

In Dublin I'm looking forward to the clash between Henson and BOD , I was at the 2005 grand slam match when Henson got the better of BOD.
Wales finish off in Cardiff with the last game of the day , I know as i've turned down the offer of a ticket due to lack of accomodation with the right type of "friends".

[Snodser]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Snodser

I know you want it Traeth but I can not see Wales beating Ireland in Dublin & strange as it may seem I believe Irland may come out of Twickenham with the Triple crown!
Wales may have a chance in France but I feel it may end in tears.............hope I'm wrong;=)

In Dublin I'm looking forward to the clash between Henson and BOD , I was at the 2005 grand slam match when Henson got the better of BOD.
Wales finish off in Cardiff with the last game of the day , I know as i've turned down the offer of a ticket due to lack of accomodation with the right type of "friends".


--------------------------------------------------------


Well.............never mix buisness with pleasure, that avoids the "friends" issue...

That was then and this is now, BOD may not be as good as he was but no offense, Henson only wins in the "haircut and fake tan stakes". Don't get me wrong, he is a good honest centre, but no more.... BOD is still far superior, mind you this could all be academic, injury may rule BOD out.
Anyway, we'll see what happens and exchange views between this and then.
Hopefully without the hiccup of the french loss!

PS; I'm trying to drum up some interest for other rugby threads. Started one on the french league and would love if someone had some "tips" on the Guinness & Magners league. Spread the word if you would be so kind, Cheers;=)

[traeth]

I know very little about the French 14 , i've read your thread and you are up to speed with the French scene, i realise that Clermont are the up and coming side but i've already lost money on them due to their failure in the Heineken
my knowledge is limited to the magners and hopefully some of the welsh interest in the Heiniken

cheers mate

[Snodser]

Originally Posted by traeth

I know very little about the French 14 , i've read your thread and you are up to speed with the French scene, i realise that Clermont are the up and coming side but i've already lost money on them due to their failure in the Heineken
my knowledge is limited to the magners and hopefully some of the welsh interest in the Heiniken

cheers mate

First off, thanks for taking the time

Any leads you may have on the Magners/Welsh side are more than welcome.

This being a 6 nations Thread I'll post any insights on the Top 14 over there.

Again, Many thanks

[traeth]

Weekend March 8th/9th odds from Paddy Power
Saturday
Ireland v Wales
Ireland 1.53 Draw 21.00 Wales 2.50


Scotland v England
Scotland 3.75 Draw 23.00 England 1.25

Sunday
France v Italy

France 1.03 Draw 51.00 Italy 11.00

The handicaps, selected Paddies odds as at the moment they are the most generous to Wales


8th Mar 2008
13:15 Ireland -5.0 1.90 (5.0) 23.00 +5.0 1.90 Wales

15:15 Scotland +9.0 1.90 (9.0) 21.00 -9.0 1.90 England

9th Mar 2008
15:00 France -21.0 1.90 (21.0) 23.00 +21.0 1.90 Italy

my view for this weekend with a Welsh bias are:
Wales @2.50 without the handicap
England @1.91 to overcome the 9 point handicap
Italy @1.91 with a +21 handicap

[Pie-chucker]

Agree, Traeth.

My nap bet would be for England to waltz over the handicap for a 20pt win. Just can't see where Scotland are going to score points if the Eng defence is as solid as in Paris.
Suppose I'll be looking at the Murrayfield weather; will definitely be looking at the spreads.

Wales win? Will probably take the +5 wimp option.

[traeth]

like you pie waiting for the weather report from scotland before placing my England bet .
Wales team for saturday
Lee Byrne (Ospreys); Mark Jones (Llanelli Scarlets), Tom Shanklin (Cardiff Blues), Gavin Henson (Ospreys), Shane Williams (Ospreys); Stephen Jones (Llanelli Scarlets), Mike Phillips (Ospreys); Gethin Jenkins (Cardiff Blues), Huw Bennett (Ospreys), Adam Jones (Ospreys), Ian Gough (Ospreys), Alun Wyn Jones (Ospreys), Jonathan Thomas (Ospreys), Martyn Williams (Cardiff Blues), Ryan Jones (Ospreys, capt).
Replacements: Duncan Jones (Ospreys), Matthew Rees (Llanelli Scarlets), Ian Evans (Ospreys), Gareth Delve (Gloucester), Dwayne Peel (Llanelli Scarlets), James Hook (Ospreys), Sonny Parker (Ospreys).

Gatland has gone for the steady influence of Jones at outside half ,Alun Wyn Jones coming back , so choosing Bennett to throw he is going for that Ospreys lineout to counter the Irish strength in the lineout. It is the one area that I feel that the Irish have total dominance over us , I'm not so worried about any other area so clean lineout ball should give Wales the match in my eyes . If Ireland can take our ball there I think we will be in trouble, looking forward to this match.

[Bigkegman]

Havent looked at the forecast since this morning but it's going to be cold during the next couple of nights but quite fair during the days and Friday and Sat light showers

[traeth]

Originally Posted by Bigkegman

Havent looked at the forecast since this morning but it's going to be cold during the next couple of nights but quite fair during the days and Friday and Sat light showers

thanks keg , i'd prefer a dry windless day if england are to overcome that handicap , i'll be keeping an eye on the reports and may not bet until just before noon on saturday

[Snodser]

Originally Posted by traeth

so choosing Bennett to throw he is going for that Ospreys lineout to counter the Irish strength in the lineout. It is the one area that I feel that the Irish have total dominance over us , I'm not so worried about any other area so clean lineout ball should give Wales the match in my eyes . If Ireland can take our ball there I think we will be in trouble, looking forward to this match.

I don't have the stats but I've seen all the games in the 6 nations so far and the Irish lineout is anything but dominant.
They may be replacing Jackman with Best, O'Connell for O'Driscoll but they are most definitely not the force they used to be.

I believe discipline could be The Big Factor and if O'Gara is on his game he could cause a lot of pain to Gatlands boys.

[kompressaur]

Bettingzone previews

This is probably the most interesting weekend of the Six Nations so far and the results over the next few days will go a long way to deciding the destiny of the trophy. If Wales manage to beat Ireland at Croke Park on Saturday, then a second Grand Slam in four years will be within touching distance and will cap an incredible first season in charge for Warren Gatland.

However, Ireland have been slowly improving with every game and were equally as impressive as Wales were in dispatching Scotland a fortnight ago. The other sides are all in a heap following England's defeat of France in Paris and now Brian Ashton's men sit alongside France and Ireland on four points.

It's quite conceivable that we have four sides all on six points going into the last weekend of the tournament so every point will count this weekend and France in particular will be looking to punish Italy accordingly. With that in mind, Wales are the even money favourites with the layers to win the competition, with France just behind them at 7/4. England are as big as 6/1 with bet365 and Coral whilst Ireland are generally around the 8/1 mark.

Wales look short to me given that they've still got two very difficult games left to play. They are in a great position at the moment but they are not certain to beat either Ireland or France so I wouldn't advise anyone to go steaming into the even money. Having said that, if they do lose to Ireland but manage to beat France, their points difference should see them to victory.

So there's plenty to play for this weekend and the coaches will be putting their calculators to one side and will just be concentrating on getting their sides ready to win their respective fixtures this weekend. All three home sides will fancy their chances of a win, though England will be a tough test for Scotland but this is the fixture of the entire calendar that Frank Hadden's men want to win.

IRELAND v WALES (Saturday, 13.15)

This is probably the most interesting fixture of the weekend and the one which pretty much holds the key to the destination of this season's championship. Wales have been carrying all before them this season and the coaching set-up of Warren Gatland and Shaun Edwards has certainly dragged Wales back to the upper echelons of European rugby. However, a gifted win over England aside, they have not really been tested yet and this weekend's match at Croke Park is arguably their toughest test of this Six Nations so far. Rob Kearney will start at full-back for Ireland after Geordan Murphy and Girvan Dempsey failed fitness tests on Thursday. Ireland coach Eddie O'Sullivan was prepared to give rivals Murphy and Dempsey until lunchtime to prove their availability but their failure to recover in time has forced O'Sullivan to implement his contingency plan with Kearney of Leinster moving from left wing to full-back. Ulster's Tommy Bowe switches flanks to take Kearney's place on the left, Shane Horgan is promoted from the bench to plug the gap at 14 and Luke Fitzgerald is called onto the bench. Stephen Jones has retained his place after an impressive return to the side in his country's 47-8 victory over Italy - but he will have a new half-back partner. Mike Phillips has been preferred to Dwayne Peel at scrum-half as one of four changes made by Gatland. The other three all come in the pack, with Alun-Wyn Jones returning to the second row in place of Ian Evans after recovering from an ankle injury suffered in the win over England. Huw Bennett returns at hooker with the chief task of steadying the Wales lineout, which malfunctioned against Italy, while prop Adam Jones regains the tight-head role from Rhys Thomas. This is a proper test for Wales and one where they may come unstuck. The layers are giving Wales a three point start at Croke Park and although they've got their tails up at the moment, Ireland have also been quietly improving and the three points may not be enough. It could just be that Wales needed those three victories to restore morale and maybe they are back to their 2005 best. However, I'm not sure they've been properly tested yet and Ireland look a decent bet this weekend in a match that they should win.

Verdict: Ireland by seven

SCOTLAND v ENGLAND (Saturday, 15.15)

Having been tipped up as potential dark horses in this year's Six Nations, Scotland have let their supporters down badly and their latest defeat against Ireland came after another pretty abject performance and they could well go into the last weekend of the competition needing a win against Italy to avoid the dreaded wooden spoon. England managed to pull a fantastic performance out of the bag in Paris a fortnight ago and their victory against France brings them right back into this competition but how they must be rueing the madness that was the second half against Wales on the opening weekend. But for that, they would have won three from three now and would probably be strong favourites for this tournament. However, things never pan out like this and England now travel to Murrayfield knowing that a win here will give them an outside chance of Six Nations glory. Scotland have recalled number eight Simon Taylor for Saturday's match but there is no place for Scott Murray in Frank Hadden's matchday squad. Taylor will make his first appearance since the World Cup quarter-final defeat to Argentina after recovering from a hand injury. The exclusion of Murray from the 22-man squad comes as a surprise, with the 87-cap lock's recall expected to see him handed at least a place on the bench. Stade Francais number eight Taylor replaces Kelly Brown who drops to the bench, and Hadden has shown belief in his team by making just one further change, as Graeme Morrison replaces Glasgow Warriors team-mate Andy Henderson at inside centre. England coach Brian Ashton had called up Danny Cipriani to make his full debut for England at full back, but having chosen nightclub over country in the week, Iain Balshaw comes in at fifteen, with Charlie Hodgson taking his place on the bench. Other changes in the England side sees Bath hooker Lee Mears preferred to Bristol veteran Mark Regan, who misses out completely, with Leicester forward George Chuter providing bench cover. The other switch is enforced, as Leicester flanker Tom Croft takes over from Wasps' James Haskell. Haskell suffered an ankle injury during the France clash and was replaced by Croft barely 20 minutes into the game. This is a tough one to call. England are clear favourites with the layers but I think that they were slightly flattered against an inexperienced French side and if Scotland can find some form and structure, then maybe there just might be a surprise on the cards. The Scots always play well against the English at Murrayfield and there's a small chance that they could win as they did two years ago - though they did go into that game in better form. I think that the Scots will either nick this or England will win comfortably. The 4/1 offered by Sportingbet is maybe a tad too high, so the Scots are worth having a small bet on at that price, though it's more speculative than anything else.

Verdict: Scotland by three.

FRANCE v ITALY (Sunday, 16.00)

France will want to bounce back from their defeat to England at the earliest possible moment and their fixture against Italy on Sunday gives them the perfect opportunity to do just that. Marc Lievremont's youth experiment failed badly against Brian Ashton's old warhorses but he has unearthed a couple of gems in Morgan Parra and Francois Trinh-Duc and this bodes very well for Les Bleus' future. It's pretty obvious that this tournament doesn't rank highly on Lievremont's list of priorities at the moment and his team selections have suggested he is keeping one eye firmly on the future. Italy have been solid without being spectacular and it is likely that their best chance of a victory in this competition will come in Rome against Scotland next weekend. France have named three uncapped players in their startingXV for Sunday's clash. Prop Fabien Barcella, flanker Ibrahim Diarra and centre Yann David have all been handed call-ups, with Lievremont making a raft of changes following Les Bleus' 24-13 defeat to England two weeks ago. Veteran lock Jerome Thion is selected even though he has been suffering with a buttock strain this week, while young Montpellier flanker Fulgence Ouedraogo returns to the back row, with Julien Bonnaire dropping to the bench. Behind the scrum, Lievremont has gone with an all-Clermont-Auvergne back three by uniting recalled duo Anthony Floch and Julien Malzieu - who have two caps between them - with winger Aurelien Rougerie. Italian coach Nick Mallett will have to do without Mauro Bergamasco for the rest of the tournament after he was banned for 13 weeks for eye-gouging last week. Cammi Calvisano's Alessandro Zanni will have the responsibility of taking over Bergamasco's role against Les Bleus. The good news for Mallett is the return to the starting XV of Gloucester lock Marco Bortolami, who will start his first match of the 2008 tournament after overcoming neck and eye injuries. France need to win this by a big margin to improve their points difference but I'm not sure that the handicap should be around 21 on the balance of it. Italy weren't brilliant against Wales but the return of Bortolami should add some steel and structure to their pack and their lineout especially. It's not the strongest of bets this weekend, but France are afforded a little too much respect by the layers and I'm not sure they deserve it.

Verdict: France by fifteen