Rugby Union, France, Top 14.

[Doc]

For me:

Toulouse -5, Albi -5, Perpignan -15, Biarritz -21, Brive -9, Montauban +18

[Snodser]

HT; TLS 8 -ASM 10

John Smit (2, ASM) is having a nightmare, lost 5 throws from 8.
Blood subbed after 27 mins. "Super Mario" Lesdesma is doing OK, Smit might not be back in the 2nd half.
ASM playing very structered rugby and TLS are flinging it about a bit against the wind. Mind, with people like Clerc & Heymans you can afford to do that.

Elisade has missed 1 Transfo.

James has hit the post and sent another wide, Baby missed one from 57 metres, by a whisker.

TLS def. look the more comfortable and will have the wind in the 2nd half.

Bloody cracking game though.

[redroar]

Wow what a result for Clermont.

[Snodser]

Originally Posted by Snodser

Toulouse v Clermont:

Should be a cracker with full squads on both sides.
Toulouse do have one eye on the H-CUP but Noves will not want to lose at home. I see maybe 2 tries per team with kicking for position or goal very important. A bounce of the ball could decide it. Of ten managers questioned 4 went for ASM , 6 for Toulouse.

Clermont +6

Toulouse 11 - 23 Clermont.

Good result for me but I would call the "real" score 11-16.

Reason being Rougerie's try. Clerc on the break trys to step inside and his knee goes (ligaments) in the confusion Rougerie kicks on and ASM get 7 points. TLS could have got a try at the death but this is rugby, not soccer, you don't bad mouth the ref . He reverse's the penalty and that was that .

Both sides left a lot of points behind them but even without all that TLS would have at best shaded this game.

Most worrying thing for Toulouse are the injurys:
Dusautoir KO after 2 mins, Sowerby, and Clerc 1st choices & all doubtfull for the semi against L-Irish.

Great game all round with just one tiny "handbag" at the end and the only hint of yellow was on ASM's shirts.


One down

[Snodser]

Just used the language option in the tool-bar to translate this thread into french! hilarious

Could barely make head nor tail of it

[Snodser]

Originally Posted by Snodser

Biarritz v Auch:

BO need a 5 pointer in the race for 4th, Auch are relegated and saving themselves for their last few home games and a bit of a party with the fans. Weather is ok,

Biarritz -21

26-3

BO get their 5pts

[Snodser]

Originally Posted by Snodser

Brive v Dax:

Dax have injury worries up front so I will not be surprised to see simulated scrums in the 2nd half. Brive are missing a few too but should manage a win. All that in mind,

Dax +10

Montepelier 30 - 0 Dax

Dax very disappointing against a very average Brive side and sure to be relegated

[Snodser]

Originally Posted by Snodser

Perpignan v Bayonne:

Dourthe on the bench usually means---------- Bayonne on a day trip.
Saving themselves for 2 upcoming home games to ensure they stay up. Suits USAP who are in a race with BO for 4th.
They will aiming for 5 points,

Perpignan -16

38-13

& 5pts for USAP

[Snodser]

Originally Posted by Snodser

Albi v Montpelier:

Trinh-Duc back for Montpelier so 2 good squads on the park. A win would do Albi a world of good. M have less pressure being a bit too far from a place in H-Cup and sure to stay up.

Montpelier +6

25-12

Montepelier never in the game

Good news for Albi as they get 5 pts (for the 1st time this seson if I'm not mistaken) and take a big step away from relegation.

[Snodser]

So far so average
6 picks, 4 wins......... need a big performance from Montauban tonight

[Snodser]

Originally Posted by Snodser

Stade Francais v Montauban:

SF to win. Montauban dreaming (and thats how it will stay) of H-Cup. Will be bucketing down tonight so even though Paris are putting out a good team,

Montauban +18

SF 25 - 18 Montauban

Montauban get a well deserved defense bonus at the death (& no one could have complained had they won) but Paris did little to justify their prestige in this game.
They had no buisness claiming a place in the H-Cup and will go no further than the semi's in the "Bouclier".
Galthie has announced he is stepping down (imo will not be missed) so Paris will start from scratch next year.

I feel no sympathy for the man as he is a "pundit" on french tv for the international games and never misses a chance (like all who came before him) to comment on ..............
the italien of sud af origine / the scot of kiwi origine & the welshman from australia, (we won't even mention Dalaglio & Vainkolo).

Obviously he makes no comment on the origins of the french team............in fairness he can't.......... has'nt got the time.............................................. ...... Well, a match only lasts 80 minutes.

[Snodser]

Game over..............7 picks , 5 wins............

Averege, very average....................................... by that I mean its no better or worse than what I did pre-TDP. & its worse if I take into a/c ML & GP



Why bother?






I'll sleep on it

[redroar]

If you think a 70% strike rate is average then you should quit now. Do some research on professional tipsters. They'd be delighted with 70% and the fact that all your picks are 9/10 or better puts you well ahead of the average.

[Doc]

I'd echo that - anything above 55% is very good when it comes to handicap betting. 60% is outstanding. Anything higher than that is unlikely to be sustainable in the long-term as it implies the bookies are very bad at their job - and they aren't.

Remember 55% @ 1.91 is 5% profit, 60% is 15% profit, 65% is 24% etc

[Snodser]

Ok lads, I see your point.

However my point is I'm no further along the road than I was before I started posting. I came in here to improve.

As a general rule I took 6/7 bets on the T14 each week with a min of 4 wins. Same as these days.

Never had less than 4 wins, usually 5, now and again 6 & twice 7.

Came in here to improve that......................

As for not being sustainable , I've checked my a/cs before posting the above.