Rugby Union: Challenge Cup

[Snodser]

Had forgotten about this but you can guess why.

Here are the fixtures, In bold the bookies favorites.

May be some value in the h/caps, I'll have a little look .


Sale Sharks v Brive 4th April 18.30

Bath v Leeds 5th April 13.15

W'cester v M'pelier 5th April 14.00

N'castle v Castres 5th April 20.00

[redroar]

Here are the teams for tonights game.


Sale: Foden, Cueto, Bell, Thomas, Ripol, McAlister, Wigglesworth; Sheridan, Bruno, Roberts, Schofield, Cox, White (capt), Lund, Chabal.
Replacements: Lawson, Sigley, Ignacio Fernandez Lobbe, Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe, Cliff, Hodgson, Laharrague. Brive:Palisson, Sid, Estebanez, Cooke, Bolavucu, Petitjean, Mahe, Harbut, Bonrepaux, Bordoy, Van Zyl (capt), Liebenberg, Van Rensburg, Bonvoisin, Azoulai

Snodser your our resident french expert how does the Brive team look to you. The only players I know are Davies,Thompson, Johnston and Cohen and they're all missing.

[redroar]

The handicapp is 21.5pts at the moment. Sale are playing a strong team and are taking this competition very seriously as they may struggle to qualify for the heineken cup through the league. My only cocern is how patchy their form has been of late and their tendency to do the bare minimum to win games.
I like McAllister at out half and they have a tasty looking back three. I'm leaning towards taking them with the handicap.

[Snodser]

Originally Posted by redroar

Snodser your our resident french expert how does the Brive team look to you. The only players I know are Davies,Thompson, Johnston and Cohen and they're all missing.

I would have said "non-resident".

According to the press, the Brive team will be different to above, who's right?, God Knows.

Palisson,Bolavucu,Estebanez,Fanolua,Sid,Petitjean,Mahe,Bonvoisin(c),Azoulai,VanderMerwe,VanRensburg,Short,Buys,Thompson,Toderasc.

SUBS; Harbut,Bonrepaux,Liebenberg,Classen,Neveu,Dambiell e,Ligairi.

Important info;
Brive are 11th in the T14, 6pts ahead of 12th(Albi) and 10pts ahead of 13th(Dax). That would suggest they are safe enough.
However, there are 10 more games to be played. As we get closer to the end(T14) the 3/4 teams sure of reaching the final phase will start resting players, which could lead to some upsets. Brive lose 1 game and a rival wins........ things could get difficult.
From what I can see Brive are not going out for a win, they are keeping their powder dry to ensure staying up(T14). Does that mean the players will just roll over? not so sure. HOWEVER the management has expressed that this CUP is not a priority this season.

Sale look strong on paper and Chabal will be out to impress & grab a seat for this summers tours.

As a rule I don't like h/cap bets, even less @-22.

I'll await your thoughts

[Snodser]

SALE; Pool Games against French teams.

Sale-M'pelier 49-6
Bayonne-Sale 14-53
Sale-Bayonne 32-10
M'pelier-Sale 14-14 (last game, made no diff to fin. pos.)

So the stats say they will win handsomely.

[Snodser]

Saturdays games:

Worcester v Montpelier:

Montepelier will have a go. They are missing Trinh Duc but McHugh is a reliable kicker. Worcester are likely to win but
Montpelier +17 10/11 PP. looks good value to me.

Bath v Leeds:

Has to be Bath, but can they make the h/cap. -21?.

Newcastle v Castres:

Castres are not sending out a full strenght team. They have kept Teulet so a lot will depend on Newcastle discipline.
Logic says Newcastle, its the h/cap that I'm looking at.
Can anyone tell me how good/bad they are in that dept?.

For the 'mo I like Newcastle -8, but I'll hold off.

[redroar]

I'm going to take a punt and take sale minus 22. I dont think brive will roll over but their idea of making a game of it will probably involve punching everything in sight.

Good luck anyway

[Snodser]

Hi redroar, i'll go along with you but have you taken a/c of the rain?

[Snodser]

Ok, You can call me a turkey (or is that chicken?) but I make choices on info I get or discover and I don't have enough .

So, .25pts on Sale -22 (10/11) & .75pts on Sale -16 (1/2)

Bets of luck to all

[redroar]

18-0 aftrer 20mins!! Brive could'nt care less

[Snodser]

Sale 49 - 24 Brive: (21-12 ht)

Result .

I have to say that I thought you were a little harsh redroar.

I unfortunately could not see the game but considering Brive went out with an understrength team I think there's no shame losing 4 tries to 6. As for "punching" & "could'nt care less", well , can't agree.

I know both england and france pretty well and imo, there"s very little difference between the two countries/people's mentalities.

But thats a debate for another forum.

We won a few bob & if among all who followed there is but one who has some gen. on the rest of this weekend's games may he/she come forward. Bye

[redroar]

I may have spoke prematurely as brive made a better fist of it then I expected. They had a player binned and were lucky not to have a couple more. I'm not pertaining that the english are angels just a few of the european games this season have seen some pretty base thuggary by the french teams.

[redroar]

With regard to the first game tomorrow Bath are fielding close to a full strenght team while leeds are missing around ten of their first fifteen.

The handicap is a big one at 26pts and you have to wonder about leeds motivation for this one. A better leeds team lost by 59pts to sarries last week all but confirming their relegation. If the weather is decent you'd imagine that bath could cover that spread. I'll have a look at the teams and the forecast before KO and get back to you.

[Snodser]

Don't have enough info and worst of all don't have enough time.

So I'm going to play safe.

Bath -19 4/6 PP

Montpelier +20 4/6 PP

Newcastle -6 4/7 PP

and a treble.

[redroar]

I'm of similar mind. Bath game is'nt on tv and the forecast is for rain. Leeds are poor but are they 26pts poor?

I'm going to put a big bet on bath @ 1/10 and try and build the bank up for later games.

Do like Montpellier +17 though.