Rugby; H-Cup & Challenge Cup semi finals

[Snodser]

H-Cup

London Irish - Toulouse 26/04/08

Saracens - Munster 27/04/08


Challenge Cup

Worcester - Newcastle TBA

Bath - Sale TBA

(these games will be played the same weekend as the H-Cup)

[Snodser]

Loads of time, but as things stand I see a Toulouse - Munster final.
After watching last weekends games, and taking into a/c the hectic schedule of the Top 14 I feel Munster have enough experience and will be fresher.

So unless Munster have some serious injury worries ,
Munster will win

[redroar]

Early prices up for the Worcester/Newcastle game are:
home 8/13 away 6/4 handicap -4 10/11

No teams as of yet but I imagine they be close to these:


Worcester: Delport; Garvey, Gear, Tuitupou, Benjamin; Drahm, Powell; Windo, Lutui, Taumoepeau, Rawlinson, Gillies, Hickey, Sanderson (capt), Horstmann.
Replacements: Ruwers, Mullan, Bowley, Wood, Carlisle, Arr, Pennell

sanderson is a doubt for this but otherwise its full strenght for worcester.

[redroar]

I had this one closer to 2/5 for Worcester but I think the bookies may have been influenced by the relative league positions

I think worcester are a good bet for this and my reasoning is based on recent form, five straight wins before a battering to wasps(who has'nt got one) and a very narrow loss to probable finalists bath. Mike Ruddock is a very under rated coach, he has a tendancy to be a bit forward orientated(newcastles pack is poor so advantage here) but the backline is showing real promise of late. Newcastle on the other hand have lost their last seven league games with the only ray of light coming against a severely weakened castres side. A change of coach seems to have done nothing to improve them at all.

In the new spirit of all things profit I will definetly be taking worcester at 8/13, as DOD has highlighted recently the handicap could slip lower and I'll discuss the game again when full teams and the weather are now.

I posted this early to get as much feedback as possible.

Cheers

[Snodser]

Boyle have the h/cap at -3 10/11.
Worc 8/13 v Newc 5/4.

Bath are also at -3 10/11 Boyle
Bath 8/13 v Sale 5/4

Paddy power have not put up there odds as yet

[Snodser]

Agree with with you redroar, both teams (Worc & Bath) at -3 seems pretty good value to me though I will wait to see what PP offers.

[Snodser]

London Irish 15/8 +7 10/11 v Toulouse 2/5:

Pure speculation but it may be worth a punt on LI. Toulouse got an awfull slap in the face last weekend, not so much the result, more the injuries and the manner Clermont took the game to them. They may have to prioritise on one competition.

Irish have a fantastic lineout and have nothing to lose & this is Cup rugby. You boys know more about them than I do so I will await your thoughts.

[Doc]

More thoughts later, but inclination is Irish on the handicap, and maybe even a sneaky bet on the outright. It'll effectively be a home game for them - huge Irish community in London (even if not represented on the pitch these days ). A distinct possibility that they may pick up lots of travelling Munster fans too. Irish as a team have lots of attributes to trouble Toulouse IMO, and the results between the two over the years bear that out.

[Snodser]

We need to wait 'till we get some squad news but LI just might do it. Dusautoir looks ok for TLS but no word on Sowerby. Clerc is out for 9 months. LI did a job on Perpignan but TLS is another story.

Catt or Geraghty or both ?

LI have any injury worries?

As of now I'd go with the h-cap (PP usually has some other options) and a straight win.

As for representation on the pitch, wait 'till u see Toulon next year in the T14,

United retirement home of Benetton!

Bit like most french sports teams(individuals) really, or english ones for that matter

[redroar]

Newcastle: Tait, May, Noon, Flood, Rudd, Wilkinson, Grindal; Ward, Thompson, Hayman, Perry, Sorenson, Buist, Woods, Dowson (capt).
Replacements: Long, Golding, Parling, Winter, Wilson, Dickson, Visser.

No real surprises in the newcastle team. Carl 'all about the money' Hayman is the only forward of note in the team its a pity because they have a decent backline. As preiously stated I reckon worcester have an advantage up front. -3 is looking more attractive.

[Snodser]

London Irish v Toulouse:

Irish + 7 evns 10 pts
& win 85/40 (aka 17/8) 5 pts Boyle Sports.


This a cheeky one and I'm moving now before I lose the odds.

[Snodser]

Forgot to add; POINTS:

As discussed previously anyone can have a great "pick" rate, just take all the 1/10 etc so here's a new(ish) system.

1 point is whatever you want it to be, 10p 1£/€ ,10 , 100 etc.

Max = 10, Min = 1.

The n° of points reflects your confidence in your picks, or if you prefer "risk management".

It in no way suggests the amount you are betting, thats no-ones buisness but your own.

I took 1-10 to avoid decimals etc.

If anyone has any suggestions/modifications feel free..

[Snodser]

Saracens v Munster:

For reasons known only to myself, most likely in a moment of madness I took Munster to win the H-Cup @6/4 on the 9th of April.

Why I did'nt place a bet on this weekends match at that time I will never know .

As of now Boyle are giving 1/3 on the win and evns -8.

Think I'll do a bit of reading, thinking etc........or just throw a dart .

[redroar]

Completely agree with your points system gives the reader a truer rating of the strenght of your selection.

A 10pt pick on LI with the handicap Snods! Fair play.

As for myself Worcester outright 8/15 9pts

Worcester -4 (sportingbet) 10/11 6pts

Note to self if prices seem too good to be true early in the week then take them then! This game has drifted from 4/6 outright and -3 on the handicap.

[Snodser]

Originally Posted by redroar

A 10pt pick on LI with the handicap Snods! Fair play.

Don't you mean total lunacy . I have not gone out on a limb like that in a long time .
That's why they call it betting I suppose

Originally Posted by redroar

As for myself Worcester outright 8/15 9pts
Worcester -4 (sportingbet) 10/11 6pts

Worc -4 10/11 5 pts & win 8/15 10 pts with Paddy Power

Originally Posted by redroar

Note to self if prices seem too good to be true early in the week then take them then! This game has drifted from 4/6 outright and -3 on the handicap.

So true, So very vey true