Autumn international rugby fixtures

[Pie-chucker]

Wales +3.5 @ 1.90 with Centrebet is the best I can find so far.

What would you think the odds on England losing by 50 pts or more at Twickenham would be? 40-1? 50-1? Sportingodds have chalked this up at 14-1 :loon .

No, I won't be on it! Just indicative of how some see this as one-way traffic.

[Pie-chucker]

Right Gentlemen,

This, to my mind, is the bet of the Autumn Internationals.

Wales to win all four games at 12-1. First up is Aus (who I think they'll beat -- more nearer the time.) Then Pacific Islanders, Canada and finishing off against NZ. NZ will have come off back-to-back games against France (in Lyon and Paris) and could be vunerable. OK, maybe not with NZ depth but the way I see it you'll have Wales at 12-1 going into this final game. Which is a strong lay Wales final game position if needs be.

Islanders in N Hemi, don't like. Canada straightforward. So it's down to this Saturday. IF Wales win by 5-10 pts then this 12-1 will be more like 9-2 by next week.

Wales win all four at 12-1 @ 10pts paddypower

[kiwimike]

Originally Posted by Pie-chucker

Wales +3.5 @ 1.90 with Centrebet is the best I can find so far.

What would you think the odds on England losing by 50 pts or more at Twickenham would be? 40-1? 50-1? Sportingodds have chalked this up at 14-1 :loon .

No, I won't be on it! Just indicative of how some see this as one-way traffic.

Your right on there Pie, yes it could blow out to 50+ points , but not at 14-1 , everyone is expecting England to lose, so they have nothing to lose, all the pressure is on the AB's to win and to win well....i'm predicting a 20 point margin by the end of 80mins. The human wrecking ball Ma'Nonu will hopefully smash the England backs to pieces all going well i'm tempted at the -13 but thinking that the half/full time option could be the best, just incase its a close one which may well happen. Thoughts anyone ???

[kiwimike]

All i seem to be hearing is how the welsh might just have the edge on this aussie team when playing at Cardiff ...a sign of things to come .....or will this aussie team turn around and blow the welsh out of the water....i can't decide has anyone taken bets for this test so far besides Pie and his 12-1 option ??....

[traeth]

hi mike , I'm still on a bit of a downer following that performance by Aussie A, the uk bookies cannot make their mind up on who's favourite now following last night's result, most have both teams at the same price , mansions have Wales +2 , while skybet have Wales -2,most of the other are scratch. I was never as confident as pie about Wales' chances , so I should be putting my money on the Aussies. Don't think 12/1 is enough for me pie on winning all 4 .If the Aussie match is evs ,that would make the All Blacks at 6 , omitting the Canadians and Islanders .I cannot see us getting 6 against the All Blacks even after two difficult matches against the French . Injuries could crop up for the Welsh squad.I think Wales would suffer more than New Zealand with injuries.

In summary that would have me betting on the Aussies on Saturday - not yet

[kiwimike]

Yeah i have to agree Traeth , it wouldn't surprise me to see this aussie outfit turn around and spank the welsh team. Aussie have that never say die attitude and when everyone thinks they are weak, they can be very strong....i am temtped to back aussie as well. with odds of $2 found at a number of places you don't normally see aussie at that higher price. Remeber alot of the players in this squad were there against New Zealand in NZ in the recent tri-nations, they nearly tipped us over there for a while in that match, they played hard and physical. I have a sneak feeling this could go aussies way , lote t was particularly dangerous that night and he is in this squad.....will continue to look around and read up more on the aussie squad.

[Pie-chucker]

Well, my Wales leaning remains solid after Aussie selection. No George Smith in the 22!
The Giteau experiment at scrum-half and a no.10 (Larkham) at inside centre alongside a wing, Lote Tuqiri. Aus tight five doesn't look that flash and the bench is very weak/inexperienced.
The Slam boys are back together for Wales looking to turn it on for the new coach in front of a packed Millennium.
But am not diving in boots and all because Aus is Aus and it could be tight. Wales by 7?

SELL Australia at 0 @ 5pts
HT/FT Draw/Wales at 25-1 @ 5pts bet365

[Pie-chucker]

Gotta be ABs to cover. But it is Twickenham and England could play out of their skins and there's opinion around that England could hold them to single figures. But this looks like a 35-16 sort of game to me, with NZ going away at the end for a scoreboard that does England scant justice. I'll attempt to cover a very tight game with the 10-1 bet.

Win NZ (-13) at 10/11 @ 44ts
BUY total points at 49 @ 2pts
NZ win by margin of 1-5 at 10-1 @ 4pts
BUY NZ hotshots at 51 @ 1pt (Muliana, Gear, Roko and Nonu 25pts a try)

[Pie-chucker]

BUY Rokocoko try minutes at 27pts @ 1 pt.

ie scores in the 27th & 60th minute = + 60
Doesn't score - 27

[kiwimike]

Trying something new here and going for the team to trail in match option , my bet is NZ not to trail at all $2.25 at bet365 , i'm going to back the kiwis to get infront and stay infront for the whole match....knowing my luck, England will get the first pen. and slot it , then lose from there...lol....ah well, i'm giving it ago.

[traeth]

I think the All Blacks will win win this one ,but England rarely lose by much at Twickers.If I had to predict a margin it would be N.Z. by 12 points which is too close to the handicap for me to have a bet.Pie I cannot be tempted by the high score either , Rokocoko is a danger , he always seems to score against Wales though , can see a support runner scoring e.g. McCaw or Mealamu but odds of 5 to score a try is not tempting enough for me.
Good luck with your bet Mike , looks good if the All Blacks can get the first penalty.
I've been on New Zealand @1.2 since early in the week , what amazed me is that it is still that price.
I went on Wales @2.4 in play after the early penalty yesterday.
My quote to a fellow gambler yesterday was " you don't get draws in international rugby matches now even if the teams are level" when asked if it was worth doing the draw if the bookies call a scratch handicap.
So my rugby betting credibility is at a low this week.

Good luck with your bets pie , mike and anyone else

[traeth]

half time England 5-28 New Zealand

England had a Noon try disallowed which makes your bet look good mike
Rokocoko intercepted try for you pie.

The All Blacks just take advantage of any mistake.

[traeth]

full time England 20-41 New Zealand

well done boys a succesful day.

a full fixture list next week with 6 matches , lets hope there's some nice handicaps and we can make some more money

[traeth]

Here are my handicap forecast for next weekend matches
Saturday, 11 November
England v Argentina +10 ...worth considering the home side
France +5 v New Zealand ...the All Blacks by one score for me
Ireland v South Africa ...scratch , but home side to win
Italy +20 v Australia ...may consider the home side at anything above 20 pts
Scotland v Romania +32 ...will Scotland go all-out to overcome a large handicap
Wales v Pacific Island +14 ... the visitors may do better than expected.

handicap prices come out on Thursday/Friday

[kiwimike]

Originally Posted by traeth

full time England 20-41 New Zealand

well done boys a succesful day.

a full fixture list next week with 6 matches , lets hope there's some nice handicaps and we can make some more money

Cheers Traeth, that $2.25 i got at bet365 for NZ to win both halves was a nice little earner, worth keepng an eye out for in the future. Were off to a good start guys, lets hope we can keep it rolling

Good call on the NZ -13 bet Pie ...i wasn't brave enough for that one....had a feeling it was going to be a 10 -20 win to NZ for some reason.....but ah well, profits all round guys, well done!