Six Nations Rugby - 2007

[Pie-chucker]

Italy were total trousers. A 1998 sort of performance, scoreline.

England spread never much in doubt in second half. Clawed back a few quid there but I was all over Italy for a 47pt loss day one. 'punt - watch - swear - lose'.

Ireland for me today. Could bully the line-outs and would expect to see possession stats quite a bit in their favour. Bit bloody optimistic but:

Ire by 11 to 15 @ 8-1 at 8pts
Ire by 16 to 20 @ 10-1 at 2pts (both Lads)

[Colbro]

'punt - watch - swear - lose'.

Classic

[Bigkegman]

A - never a try

It wouldn't have made much difference but that just throws the arguement for having tv decisions out the window - what a fecking joke !!!

The commentators where good when they had a ding-dong about the 'foul' or as it was judged 'no-foul' on Wilkinson..............

I'm all over Ireland as well - don't follow Rugby tbh but one of the guys at work thinks Ireland -4 is a fantastic bet cause he can see them winning comfortably - C'MON

[traeth]

I'm usually optimistic when Wales play at home , but that is not so this weekend.
I did feel rather negative in the opening match in 2005 , but i did not bet on the opposition then.
My money is on Ireland -3 today , Wales have very good scrummagers today , but the new rules may take time getting used to and benefitting from their advantage, the Irish should win some of the Welsh lineouts , back rows are well matched , 9 and 10 Wales have the advantage there. 11 to 15 Ireland dominate in all 5 positions especially when it comes to defence .When I see the Welsh centres the first words that come to my mind is "tissue paper".
D'Arcy and O'Drisscoll are extremely experienced and know how to unlock some of the best defence in the world so Hook and Robinson should not be a problem.
I'm getting more and more depressed about Wales chances as I type this.
An Ireland -3 win would put me in profit this weekend .So today's match is going to be a bitter/sweet pill.

[traeth]

The handicaps are out for the second weekend matches.

here are the prices from skybet

England vs Italy -(13:30) -25 England 1.91 HCap Tie+25 17.00 +25 Italy 1.91


Scotland v Wales (15:30) +5 Scotland 1.91 HCap Tie-5 17.00 -5 Wales 1.91


Sunday February 11th
Ireland vs France -(15:00) -5 Ireland 1.91 Handicap Draw 17.00 +5 France 1.91


Initial thoughts :
England were impressive against Scotland.
Italy were poor but missed chaces to score points early on.
Italy lacked any flair and rarely looked like scoring a try.
If the England juggernaut gets going that handicap will easily achieved.

Scotland were poor against England but should be different at home.
Wales looked good but could not score a try.
Wales made some poor decisions which the Irish punished.
I think Wales will overcome that handicap on Saturday.

This could be the championship decider on Sunday.
Ireland beat Wales without playing well and scored three tries and not conceeding any.
France won easily against the Italians , but were given the chances thanks to poor play from Italy. The French backs were not tested defensively but it will be different on Sunday.
I am sitting on the fence on this now , it will require further investigation.
I still think the French are better than the credit they are given.

[Pie-chucker]

Spreads seem about right, dammit.

If Italy had been playing England last Autumn, we wouldn't be worrying about the spread, but who might win. Italy just didn't show up last weekend. Berbizier is a highly-regarded coach and has a seriously good pack. But they'll have to score two tries to stay with England and it's hard to see where those are coming from. Goal-kicking ability difference is extreme. So it would seem England should have no trouble with the spread. But don't be surprised to see a proper 2007 Italian team (same personnel as v France/different commitment). 25? You'd say 40 on last Saturday, however....

I think there's more improvement in Wales than Scotland in a week. Wales.

France may still have one piss-poor half in them (just as they had v Ireland last year).
Magic turning to dross at half-time; or vice versa. Unknown quantity, as Italy game revealed little. Less than 35 points and Ireland win by 3?

[Bigkegman]

One of the guys I work beside follows Rugby and I asked him for his predictions last week but never put them up but here are his this week.

Scotland 24 v Wales 32 - he thinks Wales will just be too strong for Scotland
Ireland 19 v France 17 - He thinks this will be very tight and could go either way but not a lot in it
England 33 v Italy 19 - England to win but Italy to show a bit more than last week

[k33nan]

i agree with those overall results not so sure about the figures, but an England, Ireland and Wales victory this weekend maybe not covering the handicaps but a win all the same.

[Pie-chucker]

- 57pts first w/e which is a bit bloody hopeless.


England v Italy

Two key players missing for Italy, Mauro B and Masi. Wet and windy HQ forecast. I'm going to stick with Italy for one more outing as some South African must have nobbled their breakfast last week. HT looks the go.

Italy +13 at ht @ evens at 30pts (bsq)
Canale to score anytime @ 9-1 at 4pts (bet365)

Scotland v Wales

Even deeper analysis on this one: Wales, probably.

Wales -4 @ 4/5 at 15pts

[traeth]

here are my thoughts on the two Saturday matches

Italy have gone backwards from last season ,but they missed two early penalties and should have scored a try early last week , when they lost Scanavacca they lost all direction .
France were fortunate with their early tries as they were gifted them by poor italian play .From this platform they produced the required performance for their easy win .
England did the business against a poor Scotland. Johnny's "try" should not have been given by the TMO .As you've said confidence is a big factor plus home advantage. If the Italians play it tight and put on early points the England +26 might be a close call so i'll give this one a miss.

In the Wales match the return of Jones and Jones at props with flier Mark Jones on the wing , this will strengthen the Welsh team who were well beaten last week .The lineout is the Welsh weakness , but the can vary their own lineout , cannot see them getting any of Scotland lineout . The failure to score a try was a disappointment last week ,even though Czekaj should have had a penalty try and Ireland scored from a very early mistake.
Scotland were poor against England and with Peel back to form I can see the Welsh backs getting enoough possession to cause Scotland problems.
I have gone Wales -5.5 with betfair@2.1

Will post my thoughts on Ireland v France after the first two matches but the BBC are reporting injuries

Ireland captain Brian O'Driscoll and scrum-half Peter Stringer have been ruled out of Ireland's RBS Six Nations match against France at Croke Park.

Boss replaces Stringer , this is not a loss in my eyes but losing BOD can be a big factor.

[Doc]

Wales -5.5 @ 2.05 with Pinnacle
England -26 or so with anyone

Full thoughts elsewhere. Still pondering the Ireland-France game, which has me concerned.

[Pie-chucker]

I never bother too much with history... unless it supports my thinking .

Here are last 4 games at Murrayfield, Scotland v Wales:

22-46
30-32
28-28
33-20

that's an average 60 total points per game. Spin quote 40-43 today, presumably conservative as the weather looks foul. But with Wales tipped to throw it around a bit and keep pace in the game I'll take it on, on the overs.

BUY total points @ 43 at 3pts

[Pie-chucker]

England back to little better than autumnal and Italy at last getting a bit of belief, but not until 2nd half .

Wales are evens at +5 and am confident, so an extra tickle.

Wales +5 @ evens at 25pts

[Pie-chucker]

-5 of course.

[traeth]

two poor games yesterday and terrible bettingwise.

Foolishly I'm using yesterday matches as markers for today's game

Saturday, 10 February 2007

England 20 - 7 Italy
Scotland 21 - 9 Wales

Sunday, 04 February 2007
Wales 9 - 19 Ireland
Saturday, 03 February 2007
England 42 - 20 Scotland
Italy 3 - 39 France

England used the wrong tactics in the second half against Italy who were well beaten the week earlier by France , so Italy are not as bad as France made them look. France a decent side.
Ireland beat the Welsh last week and stopped them scoring a try , Scotland who were poor last week managed to stop Wales scoring a try.Wales are very poor so Ireland are overrated. Ireland lose O'Driscoll and Stringer .Ireland playing at Croke Park for the first time.
France make tactical changes to the team but the three players that impressed me last week are selected ,Skrela, Ibanez and Chabal. Chabal has been moved to the open side. The handicap is France +4 so I'm going for a France win @2.36 betfair