Six Nations Rugby - 2007

[Pie-chucker]

Right then. Starts in 10 days; here are the runners & riders:


3 February:
Italy v France 1330
England v Scotland 1600
4 February:
Wales v Ireland 1500


10 February:
England v Italy 1330
Scotland v Wales 1530
11 February:
Ireland v France 1500

24 February:
Scotland v Italy 1500
Ireland v England 1730
France v Wales 2000

10 March:
Scotland v Ireland 1330
Italy v Wales 1530
11 March:
England v France 1500

17 March:
Italy v Ireland 1330
France v Scotland 1530
Wales v England 1730

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We tend to concentrate on match handicaps, often anticipating them early in the week and seeing how our picks match the accepted bookie line on the Thursday.

If memory serves, in Autumn Internationals and Six Nations the handicap hit rate here is around 80%. (10/11 inevitably offered with the chance of a handicap draw).

Ireland will be 6N favourites, not least because playing France and England at home. England have a couple of should-win games at home to get some momentum and get injuries back for the big one in Ireland Week 3. Italy will continue to improve, and play France first up at home. There, right away, is the chance of an upset.

Two years ago bookie call would have been Italy -28, but doubt if it will be higher than Italy -10 this year.

Prediction: Gallic uproar as France do poorly and 6N decider is Italy v Ireland 17th March. With the winner winning 6N and, if Ireland, the Slam.

[kiwimike]

I'm in on following this with you Pie, heres hoping we do well mate

[traeth]

hi pie and mike , looking forward to betting on these matches .

I usually visit Cardiff for at least one match , this year Wales only have two matches at home .Ireland on a Sunday ..wtf International rugby on Sunday spoils the weekend due to having to work on Monday , so will give the Irish match a miss. I do not like Wales v England matches as we lose quite a few of them and the English fans are gloating fuckers when they win and miserable when they lose .The other five nations fans are not so objectionable , I suppose the Welsh are arrogant twats when we win though. I will only be going to last home match is its for the Championship /Slam. Some of my mates are going to France but 4 of us will be sking in Italy that week. So it looks like I'll be watching the 6 nations on the tele , unless we can beat the Irish at home in the opener.

What about upsets in all three opening matches ?

Italy
Scotland
Wales

Wishful thinking

[Pie-chucker]

Spreads might be

Italy +10 v France
Scotland +10 v England
Wales +8 v ireland

I'd for sure go Italy.
I think England will put down a marker for new regime and win by 18.
Ireland, with some relief, will get this one out of the way and win by 5.

[traeth]

Pie I was considering doing something similar to you there and on checking the handicaps are out already , usually they arn't out until the Thursday

Italy v France +14.0
England v Scotland -14.0
Wales v Ireland +3.0

these are from paddy power.

I usually like 7+ from my prediction to bet , so with the handicap out early it influences my thinking.

I do fancy a handicap bet at h.t. for both Italy and Scotland if they give 6 points

[traeth]

Originally Posted by Pie-chucker

Prediction: Gallic uproar as France do poorly and 6N decider is Italy v Ireland 17th March. With the winner winning 6N and, if Ireland, the Slam.

So what are your long term six nations bets then pie?

here are the odds from oddschecker for the outright
Ireland 2.63
France 3.25
England 6.3
Wales 6.6
Scotland 37
Italy 150

Here are my brief opinions
Ireland ...deserve to be favourites following their performances in the autumn internationals .If the beat the Welsh at Cardiff I can see them producing the grand slam.They will be playing their home matches at Croke Park which I believe holds over 80,000.
France ...champions they need to recover from the two defeats inflicted upon them by the AllBlacks ,they need to replace the injured Michalak at no 10 with an effective outside half if they are to succeed .
England ...under new management who will be out to prove a point , the English club rugby are playing the old forward oriented play which would probably see England with a better chance in the 6 nations but no chance in the world cup , which way will they go?
Wales ...Wales pack this year will be very impressive and should be able to supply possesion to the backs.Peel and Jones need to be on form as there a lot of injuries in the backs with injuries to Shane Williams and Mark Jones .Tom Shanklin is a major doubt .Gareth Thomas is involved in the the dispute following the incident in France.
Scotland ... they are improving ,they were the only side to defeat the French last year, but I can see them struggling this season
Italy ...Can always produce a surprise , gave Wales one last season at Cardiff when they achieved a draw. We will not get the large handicaps of the last few years.

If Wales can beat Ireland at home in the opening weekend they could be a danger.
France have difficult away matches in Ireland and England.
England very rarely lose by large scores so they have the potential to win them all.
I think Ireland are the danger and they play France and England at home but at those odds of 2.63 they do not tempt me .Ireland are 4.1 with betfair for the grand slam.I would rather take this bet but will await comments from other posters first

[Beanie]

Reading with interest guys - I cant pick my nose in the rugger but love watching it so I'll let you do it for me.

[Pie-chucker]

I wouldn't pile onto Ireland at that price. Very tricky start in Cardiff.

My only series punt is with Spin. On Italy to go well. 60-40-20-10-5 points for finishing position. Italy quoted 2-4. Berbizier will have to pull the strands together and get the confidence high. All others start injury hit (including now England's Ward-Smith) but Italy look alright. Opening game crucial. Bookies see it as France in reasonable 14pt comfort, but I don't. Max downside on this series punt 40pts.

BUY Italy on 6N Outright @ 4 at 10pts

[Pie-chucker]

This one looks worth a crack, at the odds.

SportingOdds. Which team will score the first try (in terms of try minutes). This will obviously be decided on the first weekend. Italy are a stonking good price in the sunshine (forecast) in Rome. Whether Italy can keep the foot on the gas for 80 mins v France I'm not sure, but I reckon they will start fast. In the other two games you can see Wales/Ireland, England/Scotland bedding down and starting cautiously.

Italy to score first try (try minutes) @ 16-1 at 5pts

16-1 is a big price. [cf France 9-4]

[k33nan]

i reckon ashton will put a good performance on and england may surprise everyone and come back into the world scenario and join everyone who is fighting for 2nd place behind new zealand.

[Pie-chucker]

Get on early! Skybet have Italy +16 v France and it could well be worth jumping on Italy with this handsome start. But there's an even better way in, I think. Take Italy on the half time spread at +8.

Last year's 6N meeting between these two is instructive. France won 37-12 in Paris, a solid enough 5 tries to 1 beating. BUT. The score at half-time? Italy 12 France 8.

Italy's big, experienced pack will give the Frogs a fright early on. With Skrela returning after 6 years at stand-off, the French backs may take a time to settle. Think there will be a bit of local buzz and expectation in Rome, and Italy might, at last, deliver.

I'm trying to convince myself of an Italian upset win in this opener. For the moment I'll take this early show.

Italy +8 v France half-time @ 10/11 at 33pts
Italy/France ht/ft @ 9-1 at 4pts

The handicap stake is on the high-ish side for me, considering I'll probably also be adding the +16 match handicap later. But in this tournament you have to strike early as it gets tough to beat the bookies when current form/confidence is there for all to see.

[k33nan]

what do u reckon to a.farrell to be top try scorer at 66/1 i think england will win it so thats my bet 9/2 for england to win the 6 nations and andy farrell to be top try scorer @ 66/1


The Italy bet screams at people + 15 start with ladbrokes.

[Pie-chucker]

England v Scotland

Huge wave of enthusiasm for Ashton's new look England and it will sure make compelling viewing. England are 20-1 with Centrebet to retain the WC which will crash to 5-1 in the next few weeks if this outfit comes good and England are 6N champions in a N Hemi WC year. But first things first, as the message is at the Bath training camp (also new).

England will beat Scotland at Twickenham this weekend, but by how much? Jonny will relish playing behind a strong (dominant?) pack and there's a lot of rugby outside him. Scotland are cannily coached but are injury hit. The temptation is to go for the blow-out, the 44-15 type of score, and buy at 17 with Spin. Or the total points; not up yet. The sanest way in is to take:

England -12.5 @ 1.90 at 20pts (centrebet)

I would think at that spread you could be wallet relaxed 65 mins in and then just watch, as it were.

Scorecasts (first try-scorer, result) are a bookie's laugh.

Farrell first match try-scorer/England win by 16-20 @ 80-1 at 2pts

Bollox, now I think about it, that's the bet of the weekend .

[Swooperman]

I might have a go at those 2 Pie. I'm going on saturday as a chauffeur to a bunch of directors & need an interest bet for the match

[traeth]

Originally Posted by Pie-chucker

Farrell first match try-scorer/England win by 16-20 @ 80-1 at 2pts

Bollox, now I think about it, that's the bet of the weekend .

Pie you only used one of those rolling smilies , six or seven would be more appropriate.

Bollox I'll be eating my words all six nations now

Italy v France
Italy have announced their team today , they have the best front three of the six nations, they have the second best front three on the bench , they'll probably bring 2/3 on after 60 minutes to give the French pack another headache. If Castro of Leicester is only on the bench the French front three should be worried.
I don't know much about Scanavacca or I'd be on Pie's classic bet
of first scoring play being Italy drop goal @34 with Laddies.
I'm already on Italy +8 @h.t. thanks to it being highlighted so early by Pie ,did not expect it to last long but still there with skybet

The two teams
Italy: De Marigny; Dallan, Canale, Mi Bergamasco, Masi; Scanavacca, Griffen; Perugini, Ongaro, Nieto, Parisse, Dellape, Bortolami (capt), Sole, Ma Bergamasco, Parisse.
Replacements: Festuccia, Lo Cicero, Castrogiovanni, Mandelli, Troncon, Pez, Robertson.

France: Poitrenaud; Heymans, Fritz, Jauzion, Dominici; Skrela, Mignoni; Milloud, Ibanez (cap), De Villiers, Nallet, Thion, Betsen, Bonnaire, Chabal.
Replacements: Szarzewski, Marconnet, Pape, Harinordoquy, Yachvili, Beauxis, Clerc.

before anyone comments ..I know that the trophy for this match is named after a biscuit

England v Scotland
The English media and fans have taken the selection of Wilkinson and Farrell as an answer to their problems. I would like an inform Wilko and an experienced [ in 15 a side ] Farrell in my team but throwing those two and a "retired" Robinson is not a solution to England's problems.The England front three are the ones I would have selected but don't think Vickery is right as England's captain.
Scotland can produce occasional good performances but are too inconsistant [ even more so than Wales ] to me .I do like Cusiter , but he is another who is being rushed back.
May have a small bet on Scotland +15 with Stan James

the two teams
England: Balshaw; Lewsey, Tindall, Farrell, Robinson; Wilkinson, Ellis; Freshwater, Chuter, Vickery (capt), Deacon, Grewcock, Worsley, Lund, Corry.
Replacements: Mears, White, Palmer, Rees, Richards, Flood, Tait.

Scotland: Southwell; S Lamont, Di Rollo, Henderson, Paterson (capt), Parks, Cusiter; Kerr, Hall, Murray, Kellock, Hamilton, Taylor, Callam, Brown.
Replacements: Ford, Jacobsen, Murray, Hogg, Lawson, Dewey, R Lamont.


Wales v Ireland
I usually have a bit of optimism when Wales are playing at home , not this time though.We have gone with a power pack and tissue
paper backs.Our forwards may win more possession in the scrum and lose it in the lineout ,but what is going to happen when Ireland get the ball ? ...tries. [ Tactics will be Ireland kicking for touch to get the ball from the line and Wales deliberate knock on to use their scrums ]
Ireland played some great rugby in the autumn internationals and scored some great trys against decent backs , against what Wales have out they'll score quite a few on Sunday. BOD and D'Arcy will cause us non stop problems

I see Ireland easily overcoming the 3 point handicap so it will be a rather depressing Ireland -3 for me. thinking of opening a spread account to benefit from our injury problems



the two teams
Wales team to face Ireland: K Morgan (Dragons); H Luscombe (Harlequins), J Robinson (Blues), J Hook (Ospreys), C Czekaj (Blues); S Jones (Scarlets, capt), D Peel (Scarlets); G Jenkins (Blues), R Thomas (Blues), C Horsman (Worcester), I Gough (Dragons), A Wyn Jones (Ospreys), A Popham (Scarlets), M Williams (Blues), R Jones (Ospreys).
Replacements: M Rees (Scarlets), Duncan Jones (Ospreys), R Sidoli (Blues), Gavin Thomas (Scarlets), M Phillips (Blues), C Sweeney (Dragons), A Brew (Dragons).

Ireland: G Dempsey (Leinster); A Trimble (Ulster), B O'Driscoll (Leinster, capt), G D'Arcy (Leinster), D Hickie (Leinster); R O'Gara (Munster), P Stringer (Munster); M Horan (Munster), R Best (Ulster), J Hayes (Munster), D O'Callaghan (Munster), P O'Connell (Munster), S Easterby (Llanelli Scarlets), D Wallace (Munster), D Leamy (Munster).
Replacements: J Flannery (Munster), S Best (Ulster), N Best (Ulster), M O'Driscoll (Munster), I Boss (Ulster), P Wallace (Ulster), G Murphy (Leicester).