The X Factor 2007

[stereoman]

Eh. Sometimes I just blindly cut-and-paste stuff. Bettingzone's preview if anyone wants it: http://www.bettingzone.co.uk/story_g...al_201623.html

Very weird tonight because of the Rugby World Cup and all that. First up there's a two hour show between 5:30pm-7:30pm and then the results show is at 10pm-10:35pm.

It seems that unless there's a really strong act that those performing in the first hour are most likely to be eliminated (pretty much like Eurovision). Today is therefore very ripe for betting in-running.

No idea of the performance/running order but the songs are out:

Boys ~
Andy Williams: Rod Stewart's I Don't Want To Talk About It
Leon Jackson: The Beatles' Can't Buy Me Love
Rhydian Roberts: Meatloaf's I'd Do Anything For Love (But I Won't Do That)

Girls ~
Kimberley Southwick: The Weathergirls' It's Raining Men
Alisha Bennett: Gabrielle's Dreams
Emily Nakanda: George Michael's I Knew You Were Waiting For Me

Over 25's ~
Beverley Trotman: Gloria Gaynor's I Will Survive
Daniel De Bourg: Bryan Adams' Heaven
Niki Evans: Sinead O Connor's (or Prince if you want to) Nothing Compares 2 U

Groups ~
Futureproof: Shania Twain's She's the One
Hope: Rihanna's Umbrella
Same Difference: Bee Gees' Tragedy

Odds from William Hill as to who'll be the first to be eliminated:

Same Difference ( Simon ) 3/1
Rhydian ( Danni ) 4/1
Niki ( Louis ) 5/1
Kimberley ( Sharon ) 11/2
Beverley ( Louis ) 7/1
Alisha ( Sharon ) 7/1
Emily ( Sharon ) 12/1
Leon ( Danni ) 16/1
Hope ( Simon ) 16/1
Futureproof ( Simon ) 16/1
Daniel D ( Louis ) 16/1
Andy ( Danni ) 16/1

Odds from Ladbrokes as to who'll be the first to be eliminated:

Same Difference 11/4
Rhydian Roberts 4/1
Niki Evans 5/1
Alisha Bennett 11/2
Kimberley Southwick 9/1
Emily Nakanda 14/1
Hope 14/1
Andy Williams 20/1
Daniel De Bourg 25/1
Futureproof 25/1
Leon Jackson 25/1

Bizarrely Ladbrokes don't have Beverley Tortman's odds to be eliminated tonight.

It's probably worth a punt on those in the middle of the pack with all the girls being touted to some degree as likely to be eliminated first and despite the punt on the brother-sister duo, Same Difference may 'inexplicably' survive this week.

A strain for phone voters who like to gamble as I'm pretty sure it's 'vote to save' not 'vote to get rid of' innit?

No bet for me though but I'll keep a watching brief.

[stereoman]

Leon has just bombed. Stan James' odds in-running:

Leon Jackson 4/1
Kimberley Southwick 4/1
Same Difference 9/2
Emily Nakanda 6/1
Niki Evans 6/1
Alisha Bennett 7/1
Rhydian Roberts 7/1
Beverley Trotman 16/1
Hope 20/1
Futureproof 50/1
Andy Williams 50/1
Daniel De Bourg 33/1

[stereoman]

KImberley gone with Simon and Louis voting her off ahead of Alisha (Sharon refused to vote, Dannii votes for Alisha). I didn't watch the show so I've no idea if there's a 'bottom three'.

The order of performance: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_X_F...UK_series_4%29

Kimberley performed first and Alisha performed ninth of twelve.

Sharon has done a Louis Walsh in that she's 'quit'. She'll be back next week. Probably.

[stereoman]

Hmmm. Today's Bettingzone Market News:

1430: Paddy Power has made Radio 1 DJ Chris Moyles the 1/3 favourite to replace Sharon Osbourne as a judge on the 'X-Factor' after Sharon sensationally quit the show live on air last night.

However Paddy Power are taking no chances on the whole episode being nothing more than a staged pantomime and are cautiously offering just Evens that Sharon will take her usual seat on the panel next Saturday.

Creative Director of the X Factor and previous judge Brian Friedman is the second favourite at 4/1 to replace Sharon while Victoria Beckham is just 12/1.

Sharon McHugh, spokesperson for Paddy Power, said: "Sharon is the most unpredictable of the four judges. She seems to have taken the fact two of her acts performed badly to heart and feels it's time for her to leave, but we’re not expecting Louis or Simon to let her go that easy."

============

One's going to assume that quote of 'evens' won't be there in the next hour.

[trickrick]

Well the first thing to notice, is the fact that the standard is well down judging by the performance by last year’s winner Leonna, judging on her appearance on Saturday night’s opening show..

What a motley crowd of singers…

Same Difference and Rhydian are this year’s MacDonald Brothers and Chico.. How the heck Rhydian is now trading at 8/1 on Betfair is a joke. It’s actually embarrassing to watch Simon actually praise these two acts… However I did say that neither would go out on Saturday because of their ‘novelty factor’..

Just as big a joke is now 3rd favourite Niki Evans..Ok I did back her to be eliminated..(oops…As soon as I saw what she was singing and the old ‘dead dad’ routine wheeled out, I knew the bet was down..)

Interesting, the conspiracy theorists have always been on the fact that Simon wants, nay demands a group wins this year, and of course both Futureproof and Hope are praised uniformly even though as far as I’m concerned, neither were exactly great. Hope are as comparable to Pussycat Dolls as Sheff United are to Manchester United.. And they’re favourites?? WTF??

Of course it’s not sour grapes by me – of course not.. Although my 3 tips pretty much bombed.. Alisha didn’t show her proper potential admittedly, but she has a serious attitude problem "sisterrrrr.."and I can’t see even a great performance endearing her to the audience..Beverley had a shocking choice given, although given the right song next week, her odds should rise again.. Andy Williams my other choice, didn’t have a great start, but the potential is there and I think he should be there or thereabouts at the end..

Still not a good start and it looks like the antics of the judges over the next few weeks should overshadow how crap generally the singers are this year…

[freddyfightsback]

right, i see that the market on betfair hasn't really settled for the 2nd eviction/elimination, but was just thinking about this, and so aloud for the forum, but i am thinking of a chunky lay of both emily and alisha. nothing to do with talent and i think they will sail through as both looked poor last weekend. felt kim was probably the best out of the girls 14-24, but suffered from going first. but more along the lines that there are 4 judges, 3 acts each. if emily/alisha got evicted this week, it will leave 3-3-3-1. will itv allow that? esp as sharon has had a fit and has "quit". it always seems to me that it is slighty staged so that the numbers of contestants for each judge is kept evenish. i mean, will they let sharon have one act for 10 weeks? when it gets to final 8 then yes, could easily have 3-2-2-1. but anytime before that i don't think it will happen. so, emily/alisha both about 5.5 on betfair, lay the pair and its about 3/5. am i buying money? or being foolish?

[stereoman]

It's pretty tough to assess at the moment. Maybe knowing the second week's songlist might help. Will the producers save Sharon's acts for a few weeks in a bid to keep Sharon 'on side' so she doesn't 'quit' again?

Depends how you think of it. Sharon gets over £250,000+ for this judging/mentoring gig (what does she fooking do anyway!?) so you can treat all this drama as complete bollocks if you want. She'll advertise and do any wanky thing because she wants the money...and the attention and publicity that goes with it!

Remember that last year, Louis Walsh was odds-on to be the first mentor to have no acts left and the bookies were quoting very poor odds that he'd be doing it in record time as well. Mysteriously The MacDonald Brothers kept surviving week-after-week until the producers couldn't chance them winning the final and they cut them off the show to let them finish fourth which made Louis Walsh last year's biggest loser and first mentor to have no acts left.

Will Alisha or Emily be assigned that role of this year's The MacDonald Brothers? The X Factor always seems to have an act that sticks around regardless of how negative the majority of what the public's opinion is of them but this year's assigned 'bad guy' appears to be Rhydian Roberts.

It is probably just pathetically fake on-screen shenanigans designed to keep Strictly Come Dancing off the front page/entertainment and showbiz pages/TV pages.

No single act at the moment completely reeks of 'Simon wants them to win and he's rigging the show for them!' unless you believe the 'Simon wants a group to win and even more so because he's their mentor' rumour that means Futureproof or Hope have been assigned this role and that it's only a matter of time.

[stereoman]

Again I have no idea of the performance/running order but the songs are out:

Boys ~
Andy Williams: Bee Gees' Stayin' Alive
Leon Jackson: Michael Buble's Home
Rhydian Roberts: Andrew Lloyd Webber's The Phantom of the Opera

Girls ~
Alisha Bennett: Aretha Franklin's Say A Little Prayer
Emily Nakanda: Britney Spears' I'm Not A Girl, Not Yet A Woman

Over 25's ~
Beverley Trottman: Whitney Houston's I Have Nothing
Daniel De Bourg: The Foundations' Build Me Up ButterCup
Niki Evans: Celine Dion's My Heart Will Go On

Groups ~
Futureproof: Harold Melvin & the Blue Notes/Simply Red's' If You Don't Know Me By Now
Hope: Labelle's Lady Marmalade
Same Difference: High School Musical's Breaking Free

Odds on Betfair as of right now:


Early doors so there isn't much liquidity but there really isn't too much difference between the odds on Betfair and at the bookies apart from folks on the exchanges convinced that Same Difference will probably survive with layers banking on the teeny texters who like High School Musical to save their brother-sister asses.

I suppose Emily is kind of a weak favourite to be eliminated but she does have a very poor song to perform which just goes to show how crap a mentor Sharon is...not that the other three are much better as I'd say they were even worse.

Ugh. No bet.

[trickrick]

Hmmm....Interesting.. It's quite amusing to try and imagine the singers with the songs they have been allocated and try and suss out the response..

Firstly the safe options - both under 24 girls have songs that should suit and with the recent staged events by Mrs Osbourne means they should be ok this week - so should the groups so I don't see none of these being in the bottom 2...Rhydian has the perfect song in Phantom and will no doubt go down a storm again.....Why?? I don't like Niki and although she has gone for a song that is beyond her, the fact that Celine is meant to be on the show should guarantee her survival...damn..

Now the dodgy ones.. Shit..Andy (my tip) singing 'Staying Alive' !!...Could be vocal carnage.. Leon singing a Michael Buble song...what !?! Daniel singing 'Buttercup'..Nah..I guarantee a comment from Simon Cowell quoting "kareoke" for certain.. Beverely singing a Whitney song - normally that means comments along the lines of "you shouldnt have gone for a Whitney song it's beyond you" (as with any Celine song..)

Definately one of Daniel, Andy, Leon or Beverley to go and I reckon it will may well be one of the males.. Need to know the order of singing I guess to have a decent stab though..

[freddyfightsback]

ok, its just about to start, have laid emily and alisha. ooh er. but its 1/2 for that, much easier i reckon that, than trying to guess which one out of quite a few could be up. i have a feeling it will be beverely but not going to chance it..

[trickrick]

I've taken elimination in-running (without seeing thier acts..)

Andy - 9.2
Daniel - 10.5

Process of elimination really...The others have been reasonable so far and I think Freddy's thoughts on the two girls should be correct..

[trickrick]

Laid off Andy for level as I don't think he'll go...

Fingers crossed that Daniel is a gonna !!

[trickrick]

Daniel deservedly goes and I wallow in a 9.2 extravaganza...

I just love the special bets markets..........

[stereoman]

Hmmm. I suppose hindsight suggested that the song choice this week would be rather important. Daniel ahead of Alisha? Well I suppose Simon had to keep Sharon on side somehow.

[trickrick]

As soon as you saw Cowell's feedback to the 2 young girls (who were blatently the worst performances of the night) you knew there was an obvious agenda to keep them in for sharon's sake..He should have pulled them to pieces..