The X Factor 2007

[stereoman]

Big props to the special betting markets forum mod, trickrick!

"THAT'S A THIRTY-THREE TO FOOKING ONE WINNER, FOLKS!! NOW THAT'S SOMETHING ACTUALLY WORTH BOASTING ABOUT!!"

Futureproof and Hope were the bottom two. I cannae believe Hope are Simon's chosen ones this year!?

Hmmm. I'm trying to be far too clever but a group surely CANNOT win this year?

On the other hand I don't think Niki Evans and Rhydian Roberts look like stars at the moment (Gawd, I'm doing that that annoying thing I always do where I deride everything but can't pick a winner. Again. Sorry folks. ).

[stereoman]

Today's Bettingzone Market News:

1240: Futureproof's shock departure from the latest X-Factor show has shaken up the betting, with Rhydian now the hot favourite to win.

He's the market leader across the board - 6/4 with bet365, Coral, Paddy Power, Sky Bet and VC Bet, with Blue Square tops at 7/4.

With only one act left in the show, things aren't looking great for Sharon Osbourne and Sky Bet have installed her sole hope Alesha as the 7/4 favourite for the next elimination.

Helen Jacob, entertainment manager at Sky Bet, said: "The bookies have made a killing over the past fortnight thanks to big upsets in reality TV.

"Gabby Logan's shock elimination from Strictly Come Dancing and now the early X-Factor departure of Futureproof, who were 20/1 to go, have been smashing results."

==========

Fooking 'ell! Simon loves a bet of faux opera it seems. G4, Paul Potts and now Rhydian...it's unhealthy I say!

[trickrick]

Originally Posted by stereoman

Big props to the special betting markets forum mod, trickrick!

"THAT'S A THIRTY-THREE TO FOOKING ONE WINNER, FOLKS!! NOW THAT'S SOMETHING ACTUALLY WORTH BOASTING ABOUT!!"

Cheers Stereo - Nice bit of news to receive this morning whilst nursing a bad head !!

To be honest there are members on TDP that actually question the point of having a Special Bets Forum.. However within the past week we have uncovered a 33/1 winner, a 5/1 and 6/5 winner (Kristal Hamburger Eating Comp) and a 10.2/1 winner (Daniel xfactor elimination) we probably do better than most of the other forums on here!!

So long may it continue and a hats off to all that contribute here - especially Stereo, Beanie (when he is not on a Sabbatical) and Napoleon

[trickrick]

After the 'shock value' of last weeks elimination(), I think it could well be back to reality this week.. I honestly think that a bet can be placed now without even bothering looking at the song choicEs.. There appears to be a bit of a pattern goin on here, and it is pretty obvious that the 'honeymoon' period that Dannii has enjoyed should come to an end now.. An under 25 Male surely must go this week, and unfortunately Andy looks nailed on. I actually have had a dabble on him to win the outright at the beginning and ok - this looks a shite bet, but he does actually have a good voice..Unfortunately the damage does look terminal now and I think he will be the sacrificial lamb for Dannii.. Rhydian is well..sorted really and Leon is now starting to find his form... The fact that he has the personality of a cardboard box doesnt hide the fact that he has the Scottish support and he does have a decent voice..

Of the rest..Well Alisha can no doubt enjoy at least a couple of weeks of immunity just to keep Sharon in the show.. Same Difference definately have a following (and there's something quite sexy and gorgeous about the girl - should I be concerned...?) Hope could be at risk agian, as girlies don't tend to vote for girlies..Still Simon should keep them safe for a bit.. Beverley is a good singer (another bet of mine) and she is being supported well by all the judges..Niki? Not liked her since day 1 - she aint as good as her over rated first few weeks, and theres something unpleasant about her..I wouldnt be suprised to see her in the bottom 2 this week.. However the judges would be obliged to save her at the mo..

So Andy looks doomed..I am tempted by the 9/4 that Bet365 offer. I havent placed a bet yet, but this may well change in the next day or so as I can only see this price falling as the week goes on...

[Beanie]

Wowzers! That's some punt trick!

I'm in Fiji at the moment living it up - cant get online too much(and cant seem to login to TDP most of the time when I am) but back on Saturday afternoon and as soon as I've reaquainted myself with some fine cheddar(the southern hemisphere cant do cheese) I'll plop down in front of X Factor and try to get up to speed as quickly as possibly - doesn't sound like the groups are faring too well so prob just as well I've been away as I thought this could be their year(altho that too was without having seen or heard any of them.)

Agreed about Special Bets - X Factor, Soapstar Superstar, Eurovision, Miss World/Universe etc(and of course the hamburger eating!) are all events where the punters potential edge is a lot bigger than in traditional sporting events, and so it proves...long may it continue

[trickrick]

Nice to hear from you Beanie...

Anyhoo..Decided on taking an early price and bet on Andy to be eliminated and took the 9/4 - surely this price won't last ?

Andy to be the next elimination - 2 pt stake @ 9/4 (Bet365)

[stereoman]

Forgot to put the songlist up...here it is!

Boys ~
Andy Williams: Snow Patrol's Chasing Cars (I hate that song but it's seemingly popular with the GBP)
Leon Jackson: Toploader's Dancing in the Moonlight
Rhydian Roberts: Josh Groban's You Raise Me Up

Girls ~
Alisha Bennett: Corinne Bailey Rae's Put Your Records On

Over 25's ~
Beverley Trotman: James Blunt's You're Beautiful
Niki Evans: Kelly Clarkson's Because Of You

Groups ~
Hope: Amy Winehouse's Back to Black
Same Difference: Scissor Sisters' I Don't Feel Like Dancin'

Best prices for the week four elimination:

Andy Williams 85/40 (Extrabet)
Alisha Bennett 7/2 (Sportingbet)
Same Difference 11/2 (Bet365)
Leon Jackson 8/1 (Skybet)
Hope 10/1 (Boylesports/Coral/Sportingbet)
Beverley Trotman 12/1 (too many to mention)
Niki Evans 33/1 (Boylesports/Ladbrokes/Paddy Power)
Rhydian Roberts 50/1 (Ladbrokes/Paddy Power/Sportingbet)

FIRST IMPRESSIONS: Shaun Williamson sung Chasing Cars and I think it got him eliminated from 'Comic Relief Does Fame Academy'.

Eton Road sung I Don't Feel Like Dancin' and was a 'shock' elimination last year.

The no marks over at DS generally think Alisha and Hope are the ones in most danger. I highly doubt that Sharon Osbourne's going to have no acts come Saturday evening.

This week's theme is supposed to be...'modern classics'!?

[trickrick]

I was close to placing a bet on Beverley being top over 25 @ 2/1.. However having looked at Stereo's post concerning songs choices this weekend, I have second thoughts. That song for Beverley could be carnage.!! Still convinced that Niki will Fall out of the equation in the next 2-3 weeks, however I have a horrible feeling that Beverley could have a disaster this week...(Hmmmmmm.....12/1 for elimination....possible, but I still think she has the 'story' that will carry her through a bit longer)...

To be honest I would say that Rhydian has pissed this Competition already..Can't see anyone coming close..Cowell knows he aint got a decent singer/group amongst this motley crowd, so he is going for the extreme...Rhydian will get madder and madder and everyone will love him more and more.... I reckon 7/4 (WillHill) should be taken before the dick becomes odds on....

[Napoleon Solo]

Andy Williams: Snow Patrol's Chasing Cars - I think he's a poor singer, I thought so last week after watching for the first time and I think he'll be eliminated for ruining a song that's popular with the British public.

Leon Jackson: Toploader's Dancing in the Moonlight - Easy song here, should be no trouble.

Rhydian Roberts: Josh Groban's You Raise Me Up - another OTT performance expected, but should pull it off again.

Alisha Bennett: Corinne Bailey Rae's Put Your Records On - another good song choice for Alisha imo, should keep her (and Sharon) in the competition for another week.

Beverley Trotman: James Blunt's You're Beautiful - I fucking hate this song, but I can see Beverley doing a decent enough version.

Niki Evans: Kelly Clarkson's Because Of You - I think Niki should be safe enough with this song, but I have a nagging doubt in the back of my mind (though that's possibly because of Trick's nay saying).

Hope: Amy Winehouse's Back to Black - easy enough song, should suit the girls.

Same Difference: Scissor Sisters' I Don't Feel Like Dancin' - this could go absolutely disastrously. It almost got Eton Road chucked out last year after an awful performance and this could go the same way.

As it is I took 2 points on Andy earlier in the week at 3.25 after Trick's recommendation and he shouldn't be too far away. The 6.5 available on Same Difference could be a little big, but it all depends on how they handle what is a tough song. In-running is probably the way to go!

[Beanie]

Hi team, any of you about tonight to help me get up to speed during the show?

Purely based on song choices, I'd agree that Chasing Cars and I Dont feel like dancing are the danger numbers tonight. Based purely on the judges numbers game where Sharon has 1 and Danni 3, Andy looks in further trouble.

I'll hang fire for now, but I like the look of the two TDP mentions, and have the trigger finger poised.

[Beanie]

Ouch! Thats the 2nd favourite?! Dodgy start there from Nicki

[Beanie]

First note and you can confidently predict Andy's gone. Just awful.

[Beanie]

Got worse...even in this shower of shit he's not getting votes, and the judges won't save him I wouldn't think...it'll take one of the others to seriously get things wrong to save his skin now, although Betfair gives him an evens chance of staying/going. I'd make it plenty shorter.

[Beanie]

Puh, this is horseshit. Honestly, I can't believe the lack of talent here - compare Beverly to Brenda 2 years ao - similar styles but there's absolutely no contest.

What's this nonsense now? Hope...a less pretty, less graceful, dare I even say less tuneful version of girls aloud. What was Simon thinking?

This Rhydian better be something special...from what I've read I think I'm gonna be disappointed

[Beanie]

And he was pretty good - funny looking fella but he really looks like a diamond in a dungheap here - into odds on tonight and its no surprise. If this were a fair and even contest he'd win by a country mile...thats a big if tho...but on this evidence you're shout of GET ON NOW looked a sound one trick.

Betfair thinks its Andy v Leon...I'd disagree tho and side with Andy vs someone else...Same Diff maybe...dunno, but either way I think Andy goes.