The X Factor 2007

[trickrick]

Welcome back Beanster - I guess you've had a good one !!

Yup...! Spot on - this series of XF has been by far the worst when it comes to talent, although that doesnt stop spotting the value punt (which has been great..)

Andy should go tonight...In a way it's a pity because he has actually got a decent voice (and I did place an antepost bet on him....)..

It is game over in terms of outright winner, but I still think there are some great possibilities going forward so watch this space !!

[Beanie]

Yeah, just gotta get my shock at the poor talent on show out the way - as you say it doesn't really make any difference to the eliminations...infact it should make them easier as it'll depend more on those tried and tested reality TV tricks and trends.

Andy v Bev in the bottom 2 - unless there's some serious funny business here Andy is on his way and it's another nice touch landed for the trickster

[Beanie]

And the 'Winner Without Rhydian' Market shows up on Betfair already

[stereoman]

Yeah as Rhydian hits odds-on. Paddy's make him the 8/15 favourite!

[trickrick]

I cannot believe the odds differential between Beverley and Niki.. Ok I have made it clear on a number of occasions that I don’t personally like Niki..I believe she has an overinfated opinion of herself and she doesn’t appear to have a nice personality – she smacks of someone who in the past would be regularly seen on the dancefloor of some dodgy 80’s disco bashing the pulling the hair and bashing the head of some love rival on a Saturday night…Ok I digress, but I am painting a picture a person who I don’t believe has a nice personality and is using the death of her father has a emotional pull on the viewer.

Beverley on the other hand does appear to be a genuinely nice person. She is a primary school teacher who has had a hard upbringing and deserves a chance. Great background story and I’m sure she’ll pull in the schoolkids in the audience again to enhance the good old votes..

As for their voices – well Beverley in my opinion has the better voice, and was it not for the fact that she has been given some duff songs, and image makeovers in the past she would surely be edging Nasty Niki.. Niki has peaked already and is on the slippery slope to eliminationville – forget 2nd favouritism – a smokescreen I tell ya !!

Lets not forget the emotional plea made by Louie Walsh when Beverley was in the elimination two.. He genuinely thinks she can make the final two and was very shocked by the events of Saturday. She did had a very bad week (as I predicted in an earlier post – due to the dodgy song choice..) but I am convinced that Louie is secretly backing Beverly over Niki.

In many ways the events of last week have been a blessing. More people will vote for her now to avoid this again and the fact that she ended up in the bottom have overinflated the odds in Niki’s favour..Top over 25 – Niki 2/7, Beveley 5/2 in a 2 horse race?!?! Having a laugh arent you Skybet??!

I am certain that these will not be the odds after next Saturday. Don’t forget the theme is disco – surely made for Beverley to hit out a disco diva classic. She’ll be returning to the big time big voice song that people like about her..So gotta take the value bet..

Beverley – Top Over 25 year old Category – 10 pt stake @ 5/2 (Skybet)

[trickrick]

...Within 2 minutes of placing the bet Skybet go 2/1 Beverley..

[trickrick]

Wow ! Paddypower go 11/4 for Beverley..(2/9 Nicki) ...

Tell me please - am I missing something obvious here ? Is the support for Nicki that strong?

[Beanie]

I'm not clued up on the personality side of things(although Beverly's conduct during the vote off last week in looking far more relaxed than the tearful Andy suggests that she is easy going enough to have personality down as a positive beside her name) but Nikki was certainly a bit dodgy on Saturday. No doubt she's one of the stronger singers in such a weak field, but she was pretty wobbly, and in such a poor lineup I think it's a case of (with the exception of Rhydian) 'anyone can beat anyone' - lots of 50/50s floating around, and so a heavy odds against in a 2 horse race is definately the one to side with. You've tempted me and I could join you there.

Gonna do a quick overview of all the markets...

Outright

Starting with the winner market...Rhydian is at 1.70...the question really is whether any of the others can develop enough in the remaining weeks. They wouldn't necessarily have to become better than Rhydian, rather develop a story/identity which is marketable and appealing, which the show would then push for them. Otherwise it's his for keeps.

So on that topic...we're looking for acts where the talent is there, but the image is wrong. Niki can't really be marketed any differently, while Leon and Alisha's vocals aren't strong enough. Hope have a strong lead singer, but are unlikely to deviate from the current look and sound and so will probably come up short. Not for me at 8.00s anyway. Same Difference actually sounded not too bad on Saturday, the problem is that their image is appaling. It's like Disney singalong stuff - horribly cheesy that is in no way marketable. If they were to be able to change that, then they might just have a chance. But at 15.00s, that's a big if. Beverly has a big voice in there somewhere, and perhaps the potential to go far if she plays on the big belting diva image...24.00s says she can.

Rhydian's problem is that the judges comments last week have made him a sitting duck. They've alerted the public to just how far ahead of the competition he is at the moment, which leaves him with nowhere really to go in terms of improvement, or 'journey' - that classic reality TV phrase, and leaves him vulnerable to someone who does, even if they are still not at his level.

I'd be tempted to say that while that's true, Rhydian is still the value here, given that whatever happens in terms of development, Rhydian is still going to sound by far the best in just about every show from now on, although if I do end up taking him a saver on either Hope, Same Diff or Beverly could be in order to secure the money. Undecided.

Winner Without Rhydian:

Niki's 2nd favouritism in this series doesn't convince me, in terms of vocal ability or(from what I've read) in terms of personality. As a result, this could be the market to oppose her in at 3.60ish. Rather than that, for the reasons above covering Hope, Same Diff and Beverly would yield a bet not far under 1.80 and would look solid to me. Considering that at the moment.

Best Over 25:

As trick has mentioned, the price differential here looks a bit bi, so I too could be tempted on anything 3.50 and upwards.

Best Group:

Hope v Same Difference - Hope's problem is that as a girl group they will always struggle for votes, lest we forget that Girls Aloud were beaten in Popstars the Rivals despite being far stronger than whatever the boys group was, as they went on to prove. However, the support for these two could both be pretty volatile if they change image/direction so I'll give this a miss.

Will wait for song choices before looking at Saturday's elimination.

Any thoughts fellas?

[trickrick]

Nice analysis there Beanie…Your intuition on the singers is excellent for someone who aint seen too much of the show..(“The Force is strong in this one..”)

My take on the markets..

Over 25’s

Not much to add on this one.. The price is far too one-sided, and after Disco Week, I wouldn’t be surprised if the prices levelled out on this market (of course unless Nicki gets eliminated…) Paddypower 11/4 anyone?

Groups

Another interesting one, and a market that pulls me to the value bet again… Paddypower are going 7/4 Same Difference.. Hope are 2/5 !!

Lets look at their ‘styles’…It is blatently obvious that Same Difference have attracted a following..Their songs are along the lines of Steps/Disney/S Club 7/High School Musical.. Now millions of kids love these type of acts/songs. The under 18’s must be giving their parents phone bills a right hammering. They havent been in the bottom 2 yet, (and I worringly still find girl the girl strangely attractive..) The fact that Louie hates them (well he likes to potray this – as if in revenge for Cowell’s constant sniping of the MacDonald Brothers last year) just encourages Simon to big them up even more and lets’s face facts – the viewers listen to Simon Cowell’s views more that Louie Walsh’s…

Hope…Hmmmm..Another fact - Girls don’t vote for girls…Louie even pleaded with the female viewers to vote for them, so obvious is this fact. They are an average girl band and it’s laughable that they even dare to compare them as the new Pussycat Dolls!

7/4 is tempting...

Overall Winner

Rhydian..Next?

Winner without Rhydian

Agian looking at the prices, Beverley or Same Difference for me, although I have a suspicion that Leon could well sneak under the radar for this. He has a Scottish following (always strong), I think he has an half decent voice, and the fact that he has the personality of a cardboard box is shielded by the fact that he has an innocent and vulnerable side, shown particularly after Andy’s elimination..His heart rendering reaction to this.. “..A loaast ma best mate..*sob*” Could go very far..Having said that Disco could be a problem this week as this won’t be his strongest style..

Elimination

Nicki, Leon or Hope – perm any 2 from 3…

[trickrick]

Saturday's songs..

Alisha - Young Hearts Run Free
Beverley - I’m Every Woman
Hope - Gimme! Gimme! Gimme! (a Man After Midnight)
Leon - Relight My Fire
Niki - Hot Stuff
Rhydian - Go West
Same Difference - Feels Like I’m In Love

Well...

Alisha looks a bit dodgy - can see a few dodgy notes there...However I'm sure Cowell and co were still give her reasonable comments to keep her in..

Beverley - A nice belter - she should do ok if she gives it the full on Beverley treatment..

Hope - Oh dear..This could be carnage..One for the elimination short list..

Leon - Relight my fire doesnt seem to correlate with his voice.. A possible shortlist..

Niki - Oh dear - Hot stuff..? Niki..? Naaaaahh...Could be the one that sends her into the bottom 2..

Rhydian - WTF...? (Not that there's any likelihood he will be elinated this weekend..Could be a disaster or a triumph..However it wouldnt be the biggest shock in the world if he ends up as a 'shock' bottom 2 place..Just to keep him on his toes..

Samer Difference - Another sugar sweet performance should see them through

Hope and Niki are my choices at the moment to get the boot although I havent commited as yet..

[Napoleon Solo]

Next Elimination (Best Odds)
Alisha 5/2
Leon 10/3
Beverley 9/2
Same Difference 11/2
Hope 13/2
Niki 14/1
Rhydian 80/1

I reckon Hope may be the call. Poor song choice imo and the girls have been struggling to get votes anyway. I'll think about this more before committing though!

[Winrew]

Abba songs always seem to be populer mind..

[Beanie]

Ah cheers trick, was just this minute having a look on Digital Spy to get the song choices...

Alisha - Young Hearts Run Free - her coats on a shoogly peg as you say trick, and a quick look suggests the last person to sing this song was Chenai in Series 2(who was possibly a better vocalist than Alisha) and she ended up in the bottom 2(altho Series 2 was undoubtedly a far far stronger one.) It's not the most forgiving of songs and she could be in danger IMO...

Beverley - I’m Every Woman - yep, good song for Beverly. Will get away with bum notes and will be able to show off on some of the bigger ones.

Hope - Gimme! Gimme! Gimme! (a Man After Midnight) - agreed, this spells trouble for hope...but...there are some big, long notes in this one, and Hope do have a lead singer who can appear to sing. She might just carry them through on her own again...not sure.

Leon - Relight My Fire - Doubt it will be good to listen to(and thankfully I wont be due to the Scotland game) but the Take That factor should offset any dodgy notes. Even if in trouble - he should survive by playing the 'weak category' card given that Disco doesn't suit him at all.

Niki - Hot Stuff - Hmmm yeah, question marks over this one. She's got an ok voice, but I have a funny feeling that an older woman(not thaat old admittedly) trying to grind away sexily to this one might just give off the impression of an end of hen night karaoke session...certainly gotta be value at those odds.

Rhydian - Go West - Crap choice...whether he pulls it off or not songs like this will do absolutely nothing to build him the type of image he will need to go on and be successful should he win the show. Regardless, won't be going this week.

Same Difference - Feels Like I’m In Love - hmmm the High School Musical point is a very good one, and one which should ensure Same Difference do well in this competition, and this is another week where they should do ok.

So for me its Alisha, Niki and Hope...given the odds Niki is by far the most attractive betting proposition, but I'll probably play it safe and have savers on the other two.

Will revisit tomorrow.

[trickrick]

Nice one Beanie - we seem to be thinking on a similar vein..

Anyhow I've already taken the plunge which may or may not be a good thing.. I'm sure my good run of fortune may come to an end shortly, but hopefully not yet! ..

Elimination this weekend - Nicki - 2 pt stake @ 14/1 (Corals) and Hope - 4 pt stake @ 13/2 (Boyles)

[Napoleon Solo]

Beverley - As already mentioned, a decent song choice for Bev and one that should see her make decent use of her vocal ability.

Rhydian - Again, as already mentioned it's a strange song choice and one that could turn out to be a disaster or a triumph. Even if he does end up in the bottom two though I can't see him being booted out as he's by far the best singer in the show.

Same Difference - Another sickly sweet performance should get them through! Apparently they've said that Louis' derision of them is all an act and he loves them really.

And that leaves four.....