Strictly Come Dancing 2007 (BBC1)

[stereoman]

I'm just incredibly annoyed that the last two favourites over on TXF were voted off and that this week Kate being the favourite was voted off!

The odds and sods for this week over at Skybet:

[stereoman]

I'm slightly worried that Kenny has such a seemingly huge fanbase but surely only John and Letitia should be worried as the 'chosen four' appears to be Alesha, Gethin, Kelly and Matt.

John and Letitia could be the bottom two but hey, that's the risk one takes in these wacky things.

I'll put £20 at 11/8 over st Skybet on Kenny going. I'll be mad if I lose (for putting the bet on...) and I'll be even madder if I win (...for not putting more money on!).

OT: Eh. If I didn't know any better the producers definitely want a Melanie Brown/Alesha Dixon US/UK win double if only because it'd shut conspiracy theorists like me up (I'd only go and point out that the Spice Girls have an upcoming tour and that Mel B winning Dancing With The Stars would probably drum up ticket sales for their first three gigs which happen to be in the US in two weeks time...wouldn't it Simon Fuller!?).

[stereoman]

John out, Kelly was in the bottom two. Crock o'shit but not that surprising really.

[stereoman]

Kelly Brook has quit due to the death of her father.

BBC NEWS | Entertainment | Brook quits Strictly Come Dancing

Good news for you rick as the final on 22nd December (!?) will now feature two couples instead of three. Bad news is you'll be relying on Letitia Dean barging past Gethin, Kenny and Matt.

Odds from Skybet but I'm not putting a pretty picture up this time as their layout sucks for a quick cut-and-paste job:

Outright win: Alesha 1/3, Matt 3/1, Gethin 8/1, Letitia 28/1, Kenny 50/1
Top female: Alesha 1/25, Letitia 8/1
Top male: Matt 1/2, Gethin 13/8, Kenny 12/1

Yesterday's Bettingzone Market News:

1420: Sky Bet quotes Alesha Dixon as the red hot 2/5 favourite to win this year’s Strictly Come Dancing show and she is also heading the betting market at 4/7 to be awarded the first "perfect 40" by the judging panel.

Helen Jacob, Sky Bet’s entertainment manager, said: "This year has seen more tens than any series thus far and it's only matter of time before one of the celebs lands a perfect 40. Alesha is clear favourite to bag four 10s first but Matt could surprise by beating her to the first perfect score of the series."

Former rugby ace, Kenny Logan, is the 8/11 favourite to get the boot in this weekend's 9th eviction. His best chance of survival may be to dance the 7/4 Letitia Dean off stage.

============

OT: Helio castroneves won Dancing with the Stars not Mel B as she finished second.

[stereoman]

Kenny out, Letitia was the other one in the bottom two.

[Beanie]

Stereo - I'm needing a bit of help here as I'm a novice on the ins and outs of SCD.

With Kelly Brook pulling out, I understand that there will only now be a final two rather than a final 3? Correct?

As a result, am I right in saying that the judges votes then don't matter in the final, as they will just be overridden by the public vote?

If so, it has significant implications for the markets (big -ve against Alesha's chances, big +ve for the other two.)

[stereoman]

Yeah, the final is just two couples:

* December 8th: Four couples left, one elimination.
* December 15th (semi-final): Three couples left, one elimination.
* December 22nd (final): Two couples left, winner announced.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure the final ignores the dance-off (that's been introduced for this series with the judges voting off somebody) and reverts to who the public want as the winner. The judges' vote and the public vote are 50/50 BUT this time, the public vote is the tiebreaker in the final.

[trickrick]

Gethin pulls out the stops and puts the pressure on my top male pick Matt.. Still think Matt has the mileage to pull off that paticular market, but it's gonna be closer than I expectd..

[stereoman]

Well there isn't much to say unless a case can be made for someone other than Letitia Dean will be the next one eliminated. Apparently the stomach bug that hit Letitia last week has now affected both Gethin and Matt but not Alesha.

Strictly Come Dancing | Tummy bug hits stars | The Sun |HomePage|Showbiz|TV

10th elimination odds:

Letitia Dean 1/5 (Ladbrokes)
Matt Di Angelo 13/2 (VC Bet)
Gethin Jones 12/1 (Bet365 and Skybet)
Alesha Dixon 66/1 (Coral)

To win outright:

Alesha Dixon 4/9 (Bet365)
Gethin Jones 4/1 (Paddy Power)
Matt Di Angelo 7/1 (Skybet)
Letitia Dean 66/1 (Coral and Skybet)

Top man:

Gethin Jones 4/6 (Skybet, totesport and William Hill)
Matt Di Angelo 6/4 (Bet365 and Skybet)

[stereoman]

Alesha and Letitia in the dance-off...Letitia out.

Looks ominous that a guy will win. Lay Alesha? Yes please!

[stereoman]

Hmmm. Pretty damn close. The best available outright odds right now are:

* Alesha Dixon 'evens' (Skybet)
* Gethin Jones 5/4 (Stan James)
* Matt Di Angelo 9/'1 (Stan James)

Next elimination odds from Paddy Power: Matt 8/11, Gethin 5/2 and Alesha 3/1

Looks like it could be a mirror of what happened in the recent Dancing with the Stars in that Mel B was generally the best dancer but it was Helio Castroneves who had the phone vote.

Gethin has seemingly managed to get that all important housewives' vote. Matt and Flavia's romance has seemingly just about kept them in it. Alesha doesn't seem to be getting the support.

If the judges still have the power to vote-off as I think they do, Matt's surely gone unless somehow it's Alesha and Gethin in the bottom two.

[trickrick]

Alas the Gethin seems to be peaking perfectly to snatch the title, as Alesha snatches defeat from the jaws of victory.. Yup, the Red Rum/Crisp analogy seems perfect here..

In some respects it will be a traversty if Alesha doesnt win as she has been far and wide the best, but viewers tend to go for the young male who gradually improve each week (ala Darren Gough, Mark Ramprakash) and the same pattern is blatently obvious here.. Also blatently obvious (as Stereo says) that people are not warming to Alesha for whatever reason (I can only see a warm, attractive, amusing personality - but then I would having got an antepost bet on her since week 1 at 10/1..)

I should be edging my bet on Gethin, but on proud (and stupid) principles I won't, and I will just hope that the Gethin/Matt votes carve each other up, and the beautiful Alesha hits to winning rope just ahead..

[stereoman]

Why didn't I bother putting up the odds as to who would be the first one to get a 'perfect 40' score from the judges!? I didn't bet on it but Matt was the surprise winner on that front.

I'm not sure why the judges singled his performance out. Do they want an Alesha versus Matt final? It looks like it.

Elimination in-running over at Stan James: Gethin 4/7, Matt 6/4 and Alesha 8/1
To win outright in-running at Stan James: Alesha 5/6, Matt 9/4 and Gethin 11/4

[stereoman]

Gethin out. Matt was the other one in the bottom two.

[trickrick]

Originally Posted by trickrick

However one bet now interests me greatly is the top male market.. Matt D''Angelo has been in my opinion head and shoulders above the other males in the way his has entertained the public with his dancing. The show needs some male competition, and think he could well be the opposition to give them a go.....I was toying with the idea of backing him last week at 13/8, but in my usual hesitant style, didnt...

I intended going heavy on this, and the 6/4 on offer from Boylesport looks good enough..however they will only let me place a misely £46 on this market.. What sort of fucking liability is that to a bookmaker..You can understand maybe a bet on a market at 10/1, but ye gods..6 to fuckin 4 ???

Oh well...Anyone let me know if they can find 6/4 or better on best male please so I can top up..?

Matt D'Angelo to be Top Male - 6/4 (Boylesports)

Well after the Leon debacle, this has at least cushioned the blow...

I just need Alesha now to do the biz next week...