Nathan's hotdog eating contest 2008 !

[trickrick]

It's back......Joey Chestnut 5/7, Takeru Kobyashi 21/20, the field 11/1

[trickrick]

Odds from Bet365. The biggest sporting event of Independence Day weekend Interesting odds, Chestnut not the big fav, altho I understand they have reduced the time limit to 10 minutes - a time that last year Koby was leading...

[kosar19]

I had thought of entering myself, but as I do not like 'Dogs' it would have been difficult for me. Cheesecake eating comp, now that may be different

[Beanie]

Get in! One of the highlights of the 2007 punting year for me...let's nail it again!



Last year's epic...



Don't think Kobayashi was quite leading at 10 minutes last year trick - on the video its 57-57 at that point, and its also worth bearing in mind that at the end(on the video) it was 63-62 to Chestnutt with the official count being 66-63, so it's likely the Chestnutt was actually about 2 ahead at 10 minutes.

Anyway, I'll go have a hunt for the recent form...

[Winrew]

My god , has it been a year already since the last one

[Beanie]

Ok, apparently the world record is now Chestnutt with 55, taken from how many he had eaten last year after 10 mins...not sure how that works but there you go.

Chestnutt has continued his good form since last year, nabbing a few more world records, the much heralded Asparagus included.

Ok important news then...

- Kobayashi has a bye(I think) meaning we might not have any pre contest results for him to look at...

- Chestnutt maybe the same, not sure yet, but at a contest last week ate 43 hot dogs in 8 minutes. That would come out at nearly 54 for 10 minutes, so it looks like he's performing at last years level.

- Kobayashi last ate comeptitively last September (dropped to 3rd in the rankings, I presume as a result) - whether that means he's just gone into 100% training for this one(and that would be my guess) or isnt as motivated anymore, is up for debate.

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Hmmm, my take at the moment is that last year Chestnut kinda came out of nowhere, crushing the qualifiers and then doing even better in the finals just 2 weeks later. Kobayashi, prior to Chestnut getting 59 in the qualifiers, probably thought that 53 ish was fine as it had been for the 6 years beforehand.

Kobayashi still managed to raise his game amazingly - there was no evidence that he could get near the higher end of the 50s, nevermind hit 63, but that he did.

So give him a year to go away and work on it, with renewed motivation...?

I don't know, i'll want to read a few quotes from him before going near this as his odds aren't exactly long, but he's the master of this sport and they never go out with a whimper, only come back stronger...

[trickrick]

Hmmm..The reasonably odds either indicate that Koby is up for revenge this year, or a mark of respect for the old master..

Wasnt Koby's preparation marred by illness, and also didnt his mother die around this time last year? Either way I suspect that he certainly wasnt either mentally or physically up to the blue ribbon event of competitive eating in 2007....

Well we know that Chestnut is fighting fit, but as you say Beanie, we need to find out more about Koby current status...

[trickrick]

Just for background, the competitive eating threads of 2007..

Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest 2007

Krystal Square Off IV World Hamburger Eating Championship

[Beanie]

He complained of a sore/dislocated(?) jaw just days before the contest last year - never know how much truth there was in that tho. Can't remember re: the mother thing.

The once-undisputed champ of Coney Island’s annual hot dog-eating contest is preparing to reclaim his crown Friday.

Takero Kobayashi is back for the annual Nathan's Hot Dog Eating contest. The Japanese lightweight saw his six-year winning streak come to an end last year, when California's Joey Chestnut set a record by chewing through 66 hot dogs and buns in 12 minutes.

Kobayashi managed just a meager 63 dogs, but was suffering from a jaw injury.

Looking to reclaim his mustard belt, Kobayashi said in a Wednesday interview in Central Park that he's at the top of his game and that no one downs the dogs any better.

"Strategy, I don't know, I don't know. But all I have to do is try my best," said Kobayashi through a translator.

The hot dog drama reaches its boiling point on Friday at the original Nathan's Famous hot dog stand, at Surf and Stillwell Avenues on Coney Island.

Kobayashi, Chestnut and 19 other competitors are expected to participate.

The dog-eat-dog battle has been held every Fourth of July since 1916.

This is tricky to weigh up as it all depends on Kobayashi, and there's no results to hint at his form.

And we also got to consider that Chestnut has drastically improved year on year since 2005 ish - there's nothing to suggest that even if Kobayashi can raise his level, Joey won't go even higher again...

The odds are a little strange - I was expecting Chestnut to be pretty short after last year, in which case i'd have been quite willing to take a chance on Kobayashi.

As it is, it's a measly evensish on Kobayashi being able to improve again(and given the lack of stats or soundbites, thats just a shot in the dark at the moment,) and hoping that Chestnut isnt any better.

The more I think about it, Chestnut's odds look the better to me.

[trickrick]

Bodog go..
Joey Chestnut 1.77
Takeru Kobayashi 2.00

(Poxy $50 limit..)

[trickrick]

Hmmm..THe more I look at this, the more I suspect that Koby has been put in the comp on his reputation alone. He has been very quiet, not really competing since last year. Although he claimed at the time that he would return to win it back and having no pressure on him this time, I suspect it's more of a fighting talk. The local Boston Newspaper claim that he shouldnt be in the tournament at all as he did not qualify, although the organisers compare the wildcard offer to Koby as an invite to a golf tournament to Tiger Woods. Certainly ESPN will want a repeat of the 1.5 million viewers from last year, and a big hype up of the return of the two heavyweights of competitve eating will certainly help the viewing figures.

That said, I guess you can't not discount the all time great, but I suspect that this could well be his swansong as Chestnut looks as unbeatable as ever and I predict a more dominating victory than last year....

Noone else appears to be in contention..

Certainly 5/7 is worthy of a sizeable bet..

Chestnut to win Nathan's Hotdog Eating Tourney - 20 pt stake @ 5/7

[Beanie]

Done trickster, i'm on Joey @ 5/7 too. Might as well use the $50 Bodog limit @ 1.77 too I suppose

For Kobayashi to win, he needs two things...a) to be in the shape and form of his life, freshly motivated and training like a demon, and b) Chestnut to stay the same or perhaps drop from last years level.

On a) - there's nothing but fanciful newspaper stories to suggest he is up for it - his interviews mention 'try my best' and thats about it. Evidence against is the wildcard - why wouldn't he come over and qualify, given that he would do so wiith ease? I'd suggest that he's not in great shape, and so as to avoid a situation where Kobayashi qualifies in underwhelming style and therefore make the main event almost a foregone conclusion, the wildcard allows the organisers to build it up as a titanic head to head. Either that or he didn't fancy it this year, and so the organisers put out a package to him, involving wildcard plus money plus whatever he wants, to avoid a one man tournament that wouldnt be any sort of spectacle.

On b) - Chestnut is still setting records, still showing he's the man to beat, and 5/7 against someone who's disappeared for 9 months looks way too generous.

I hope Kobayashi hasn't turned into a fat has been(or would a has been not turn thin in this event???) and does make it a good contest(obv losing in the end tho.)

[trickrick]

I think the big event is at 4.00pm today (12.00 pm EST).. Not sure I'll be back from work in time, although I'm also not sure if ESPN is streaming anywhere? (Presumably it'll be ESPN2)

[trickrick]

Originally Posted by Beanie

I hope Kobayashi hasn't turned into a fat has been(or would a has been not turn thin in this event???) and does make it a good contest(obv losing in the end tho.)

.. Can see it now - A big fat bloater staggering in with a t-shirt that doesnt cover his gut.. Hopefully, he'll be a bit like Ali's last comeback against Larry Holmes when he was punchdrunk as hell and it was a complete one-sided affair..

However - note - one of the American sportsbooks can't split them and have them both at 20/23...

Hmmm...

[kompressaur]

Great stuff chaps. good luck on the main event. will it be shown live?