Mercury Music Prize 2006

[stereoman]

Nominations are annnounced on Tuesday at 11:30am, the winner is announced on Tuesday 5th September. I got lucky last year. Sometimes it pays to listen to the late rumours, sometimes you will get your fingers burnt.

Possible nominees as to who'll make the final shortlist of twelve:

* Arctic Monkeys - Whatever People Say I Am, That's What I'm Not
* The Automatic - Not Accepted Anywhere
* Hot Chip - The Warning
* The Kooks - Inside In/Inside Out
* Plan B - Who Needs Actions When You Got Words
* Corinne Bailey Rae - Corinne Bailey Rae

Plus your token folk and jazz entry.

I assume Arctic Monkeys will be giving a 2/1 favourite quote. They won't turn up to collect (the only one who didn't turn up to collect was PJ Harvey and she was stuck in Washington a couple of days after 9/11) and their buzz is dying.

Other possible nominees:

* Lily Allen - Alright Still *BIG CHANCE*
* Kate Bush - Aerial *SLIM CHANCE*
* Isobel Campbell and Mark Lanegan - Ballad of the Broken Seas *MIGHT MAKE IT*
* Camera Obscura - Let's Get Out of This Country *SLIM CHANCE*
* Editors - The Back Room *BIG CHANCE*
* The Feeling - Twelve Stops And Home *BIG CHANCE*
* Field Music - Field Music *SLIM CHANCE*
* Guillemots - Through the Window Pane *50/50*
* Richard Hawley - Coles Corner *50/50*
* Mystery Jets - Making Dens *SLIM CHANCE*
* Jim Noir - Tower of Love *SLIM CHANCE*
* Pet Shop Boys - Fundamental *SLIM CHANCE*
* Sway - This Is My Demo *50/50*
* Sandi Thom - Smile...It Confuses People *50/50*
* The Workhouse - Flyover *SLIM CHANCE*
* Thom Yorke - The Eraser *50/50*

I know the bookies are reading. Hello bookies.

[elwico]

what price The Kooks ?

[stereoman]

I'd suggest The Kooks would be 4/1. Do you want my opinion on the rest of these potential nominees? I'm not a bookie, mind so I'll take any criticism if you think I'm under-pricing or over-pricing with a pinch of salt and a general nod of the head as it's only my opinion.

I think I've definitely missed out out on one or two though (I'm not up on my British folk or jazz scene). One of the surprise names being suggested is Vashti Bunyan - Lookaftering.

[Hippy Dave]

The Automatic - Not Accepted Anywhere
Just heard the two songs, and lyrically awful IMO. Music not great either. No chance.

Hot Chip - The Warning
Could see this causing a shock if one of the lesser known acts wins. Ptetty alternative stuff, and that's what they go for here.

The Kooks - Inside In/Inside Out
Love this album, but is it a bit too mainstream for this prize? I think so.

Plan B - Who Needs Actions When You Got Words
Can't comment, recognise the name but can't recall the music. Therefore, likely winner
Corinne Bailey Rae - Corinne Bailey Rae
One big catchy single - is the album strong? Not sure.

Lily Allen - Alright Still
Album's not even out yet is it? Or maybe I missed it. If nominated, HUGE CHANCE. Have heard some of the unreleased stuff and most is better than the 2 singles.

Kate Bush - Aerial
Good reviews, not heard it myself. Surely they'll go for someone newer.
Editors - The Back Room
Pretty intense, don't think the judges will go for this - they seem to have had biggest hit with remix of Blood don't they?

The Feeling - Twelve Stops And Home
I'll be surprised if this is nominated, no chance of winning.
Guillemots - Through the Window Pane
Not sure how to describe Guillemots, and I've been trying for a year. Might have an outside chance, as they're certainly innovative.

Mystery Jets - Making Dens
Are these the bandd who did "You Can't Fool Me Dennis"? If so, pretty bland, and won't win.
Sandi Thom - Smile...It Confuses People
Won't win, too much controvosy over whole Myspace thing, whether it's all been a big music industry trick, etc.


Not heard the other stuff, so can't comment.

In summary, Hot Chip, Lily Allen or Guilllemots.

[stereoman]

I'm surprised a little by the list:

* Arctic Monkeys - Whatever People Say I Am, That's What I'm Not
* Isobel Campbell & Mark Lanegan - Ballad Of The Broken Seas
* Editors - The Back Room
* Guillemots - Through The Windowpane
* Richard Hawley - Coles Corner
* Hot Chip - The Warning
* Muse - Black Holes And Revelations
* Zoe Rahman - Melting Pot
* Lou Rhodes - Beloved One
* Scritti Politti - White Bread, Black Beer
* Sway - This Is My Demo
* Thom Yorke - The Eraser

[stereoman]

Fiirst prices seemingly from William Hill:

Thom Yorke - The Eraser 5/1
Arctic Monkeys - Whatever People Say I Am, That's What I'm Not 5/1
Muse - Black Holes And Revelations 6/1
Guillemots - Through The Windowpane 6/1
Editors - The Back Room 6/1
Sway - This Is My Demo 8/1
Richard Hawley - Coles Corner 8/1
Hot Chip - The Warning 8/1
Zoe Rahman - Melting Pot 10/1
Scritti Politti - White Bread, Black Beer 10/1
Lou Rhodes - Beloved One 10/1
Isobel Campbell & Mark Lanegan - Ballad Of The Broken Seas 10/1

Thom Yorke surely CAN'T win this. :loon

[stereoman]

Arctic Monkeys down to 7/2. I've put £20 on. Feels like the Franz Ferdinand year where there were no real contenders. There is no competition. Looks like the panel's going to bite the bullet.

Paddy's incidentally have them down as 2/1 favourite (hello Paddy Power! ).

[stereoman]

Popjustive have just released their shortlist for 'British Pop Single of the Year' or something stupid like that:

'Biology' - Girls Aloud
'DARE' - Gorillaz
'Destroy Everything You Touch' - Ladytron
'I Said Never Again (But Here We Are)' - Rachel Stevens
'Number One' - Goldfrapp
'Over & Over' - Hot Chip
'Push The Button' - Sugababes
'Smile' - Lily Allen
'Supermassive Black Hole' - Muse
'Up All Night' - Matt Willis
'Valentine' - The Delays
'Who Am I?' - Will Young

If Blue Square had any sense, they wouldn't put up any odds. You just know it's going to be Girls Aloud. Again.

[stereoman]

Today's Bettingzone Market Moves:

1200: Bookies William Hill have slashed the price of the Arctic Monkeys winning the Nationwide Mercury Prize from an original quote of 5/1 to 11/10 favourite following a massive run of money, which culminated in a £2,500 wager at 2/1.

"There is no doubt that that punters expect the Artic Monkeys to win but the insiders seem to be very keen on the Guillemots and Richard Hawley to pull off a surprise," said Hills spokesman Rupert Adams.

That pair are priced at 3/1 and 7/2 respectively.

============

I wouldn't take too much notice of this as they've had the 11/10 up for a week-and-a-half. Last year, some 'mystery punter' in Manchester put £5,000 on the Kaiser Chiefs at 4/1 over at a branch of William Hill.

It should be one of Arctic Monkeys, Guillemots and Richard Hawley who'll end up with the price but seemingly the money's quietly going on Guillemots to win.

Watch out for the late, late whispers as always.

Last year was prophetic (the money was right when Antony and the Johnsons won) when they're usually pathetic (The Darkness in 2003 and The Zutons in 2004 have been tipped late on with large gambles on both proving completely fruitless).

[stereoman]

Wow. That guy won £5,000! Me? I only won £70. Eh. Better than a kick in tthe teeth I suppose.

[milners]

Been a poor year for music then!!!