Xmas Speech Bets

[Beanie]

Its what the Queen Mam would have wanted, the addicted old sod

How Many Viewers will tune in?

Applies to the UK viewing figures for the Queens Speech broadcasted on BBC1 only.

Under 4 million 14 - 1
4m - 4.5m 8 - 1
4.6m - 5m 6 - 1
5.1m - 5.5m 3 - 1
5.6m - 6m 3 - 1
6.1m - 8m 5 - 2
8.1m - 10m 8 - 1
Over 10m 8 - 1

How many times will The Queen say 'West or Western' in her Christmas speech?

None 1 - 25
Once 6 - 1
Twice 16 - 1
Three 25 - 1
More than Three 50 - 1

How many times will The Queen say 'Best' in her Christmas speech?

None 1 - 2
Once 2 - 1
Twice 9 - 1
Three Times 12 - 1
More than three times 18 - 1

What will the Queen use first in her Christmas speech?
Bets void if none of the below are said.

Iraq 7 - 1
The Middle East 7 - 1
Peace in Northern Ireland 7 - 1
Terrorism 8 - 1
World Peace 8 - 1
Tony Blair 8 - 1
Environment 12 - 1
ASBO 14 - 1
Charles 14 - 1
Olympics 14 - 1
William 14 - 1
Harry 14 - 1
Spirit of the people 18 - 1
80th Birthday 18 - 1
Threat to World as we know it 20 - 1
Royal Wedding 20 - 1
Old Age 25 - 1
Camilla 33 - 1
Zara 33 - 1
David Beckham 40 - 1
The X Factor 50 - 1
Chelsy 50 - 1
Kate 50 - 1
Big Brother 66 - 1
Boujis 66 - 1
Simon Cowell 80 - 1
Jose Mouriniho 80 - 1
Another Annus Horribilis 100 - 1

All from Paddy Power. Will dig up some stats/last years speech in a bit.

[Hippy Dave]

Originally Posted by Beanie

Will dig up some stats/last years speech in a bit.

Class You really do bet on the strangest things

[Beanie]

Come on Dave, wouldn't it be nice when your family troops through to watch the old diddy, rather than clicking away furiously on the poker or refreshing the livescore of a Saudi Arabian Highland League (Southeast) match to see if your 1+ goals bet is in yet, you join them and treat yourself to a little smile when dear Liz starts: 'Last night, when Jose Mourinho and the lads were over for a game of foosball and a few cold ones...'

Erm anyway, here's last years ramble:

The day after my last Christmas message was broadcast, the world experienced one of the worst natural disasters ever recorded.

The devastating tsunami struck countries around the Indian Ocean causing death and destruction on an unprecedented scale. This was followed by a number of vicious hurricanes across the Caribbean and the inundation of the city of New Orleans. Then in the autumn came the massive earthquake in Pakistan and India.

This series of dreadful events has brought loss and suffering to so many people - and their families and friends - not only in the countries directly affected, but here in Britain and throughout the Commonwealth.

As if these disasters were not bad enough, I have sometimes thought that humanity seemed to have turned on itself - with wars, civil disturbances and acts of brutal terrorism. In this country many people's lives were totally changed by the London bombings in July.

This Christmas my thoughts are especially with those everywhere who are grieving the loss of loved ones during what for so many has been such a terrible year.

These natural and human tragedies provided the headline news; they also provoked a quite remarkable humanitarian response. People of compassion all over the world responded with immediate practical and financial help.

There may be an instinct in all of us to help those in distress, but in many cases I believe this has been inspired by religious faith. Christianity is not the only religion to teach its followers to help others and to treat your neighbour as you would want to be treated yourself.

It has been clear that in the course of this year relief workers and financial support have come from members of every faith and from every corner of the world.

There is no doubt that the process of rebuilding these communities is far from over and there will be fresh calls on our commitment to help in the future.

Certainly the need for selflessness and generosity in the face of hardship is nothing new. The veterans of the Second World War whom we honoured last summer can tell us how so often, in moments of greatest trial, those around them seemed able to draw on some inner strength to find courage and compassion. We see this today in the way that young men and women are calmly serving our country around the world often in great danger.

This last year has reminded us that this world is not always an easy or a safe place to live in, but it is the only place we have. I believe also that it has shown us all how our faith - whatever our religion - can inspire us to work together in friendship and peace for the sake of our own and future generations.

For Christians this festival of Christmas is the time to remember the birth of the one we call "the Prince of Peace" and our source of "light and life" in both good times and bad. It is not always easy to accept his teaching, but I have no doubt that the New Year will be all the better if we do but try.

I hope you will all have a very happy Christmas this year and that you go into the New Year with renewed hope and confidence.

[trickrick]

'Big Brother' at 66/1... Should be 66666666/1...

I bet some nobs have still taken 66's!!

[Hippy Dave]

I've not watched the Queen's Speech before Beanie, and I never will unless you uncover a bet for me to cheer on.

[Beanie]

Best get cracking then:

Originally Posted by Beanie

How Many Viewers will tune in?

Applies to the UK viewing figures for the Queens Speech broadcasted on BBC1 only.

Under 4 million 14 - 1
4m - 4.5m 8 - 1
4.6m - 5m 6 - 1
5.1m - 5.5m 3 - 1
5.6m - 6m 3 - 1
6.1m - 8m 5 - 2
8.1m - 10m 8 - 1
Over 10m 8 - 1 .

Last year had 8m viewers, but with it being on 2 channels the vote is split with only 6.2m on BBC1. Just 5.5m on BBC the year before.

So will we get more this year? 2005 was an eventful year as compared to 2004, and with plenty world troubles still on the agenda it should be another showstopper from Queenie - but not quite on the same scale. That 5.6 - 6m band is a bit narrow but looks the pick. At the very least covering the 5.6m - 8m range will show a healthy profit.

Originally Posted by Beanie

How many times will The Queen say 'West or Western' in her Christmas speech?

None 1 - 25
Once 6 - 1
Twice 16 - 1
Three 25 - 1
More than Three 50 - 1

Not interesting in the slightest. She will avoid anything which places any sort of regional division, but 1.04 is laughable.

Originally Posted by Beanie

How many times will The Queen say 'Best' in her Christmas speech?

None 1 - 2
Once 2 - 1
Twice 9 - 1
Three Times 12 - 1
More than three times 18 - 1

Lets see.

She didnt say it in 2001.
She said it twice in 2002.
She didn't say it in 2003.
She said it once in 2004.
She didn't say it in 2005.

Could be tempted on the once, with a saver on twice. Worth noting that she will generally only refer to 'best' when saying 'to the best of my ability' so the key to this one lies in whether or not she'll be talking about herself. Hmmmmm...perhaps...she's getting on a bit and unlike last year she's gonna have to put her thinking cap on rather than just take the easy route and blabber about countless disasters and terrorist attacks. I'll mark this down as a possible.

Originally Posted by Beanie

What will the Queen use first in her Christmas speech?
Bets void if none of the below are said.

Iraq 7 - 1
The Middle East 7 - 1
Peace in Northern Ireland 7 - 1
Terrorism 8 - 1
World Peace 8 - 1
Tony Blair 8 - 1
Environment 12 - 1
ASBO 14 - 1
Charles 14 - 1
Olympics 14 - 1
William 14 - 1
Harry 14 - 1
Spirit of the people 18 - 1
80th Birthday 18 - 1
Threat to World as we know it 20 - 1
Royal Wedding 20 - 1
Old Age 25 - 1
Camilla 33 - 1
Zara 33 - 1
David Beckham 40 - 1
The X Factor 50 - 1
Chelsy 50 - 1
Kate 50 - 1
Big Brother 66 - 1
Boujis 66 - 1
Simon Cowell 80 - 1
Jose Mouriniho 80 - 1
Another Annus Horribilis 100 - 1

All from Paddy Power. Will dig up some stats/last years speech in a bit.

Taking out the ridiculous ones, the ones about herself(she'll talk about world events before mentioning her own life/family) etc:

Iraq 7 - 1 - Obviously its a big possibility
The Middle East 7 - 1 - again a big chance
Peace in Northern Ireland 7 - 1 - hmmmm...doubt she'll lead with this. Should get a mention but middle east will go first.
Terrorism 8 - 1 - always relevant
World Peace 8 - 1 - not a chance.
Tony Blair 8 - 1 - doubt she'll single him out for a specific mention - certainly not without referring to the place first in any case.
Environment 12 - 1 - The big danger this one - its a big hitter and could nip infront or the Iraq situation.
Olympics 14 - 1 - nope - late mention if any
Spirit of the people 18 - 1 - always gets a mention, but always towards the middle.
Threat to World as we know it 20 - 1 - far too wordy.

So the big 3:

Iraq 7-1
Middle East 7-1
Environment 12-1

Back all 3 and the profit is a peice of piss. Hmmm...environment could be a little too political but it is a watchword just now and a quick mention in the opening salvo is a danger.

She'll mention the region, then the country IMO - so a decent chunk on middle east and savers on the other two could be my choice here.

Plenty to think about.

[mrmuzeman]

This thread had me pissing myself

Isnt it treason to bet on royal things

[Beanie]

Haha...good shout muse...let's see:

The Treason Act 1351 has since been amended several times, and currently provides for four categories of treasonable offences, namely:

"when a man doth compass or imagine the death of our lord the King, or of our lady his Queen or of their eldest son and heir";
"if a man do violate the King’s companion, or the King’s eldest daughter unmarried, or the wife of the King’s eldest son and heir";
"if a man do levy war against our lord the King in his realm, or be adherent to the King’s enemies in his realm, giving to them aid and comfort in the realm, or elsewhere, and thereof be probably attainted of open deed by the people of their condition"; and
"if a man slea the chancellor, treasurer, or the King’s justices of the one bench or the other, justices in eyre, or justices of assise, and all other justices assigned to hear and determine, being in their places, doing their offices".
Another Act, the Treason Act 1702 (1 Anne stat. 2 c. 21), provides for a fifth category of treason, namely:

"if any person or persons ... shall endeavour to deprive or hinder any person who shall be the next in succession to the crown ... from succeeding after the decease of her Majesty (whom God long preserve) to the imperial crown of this realm and the dominions and territories thereunto belonging".

Well we're not imagining her death(and I should bloody well hope not as that would surely scupper the ratings punt) and I've no plans to violate her so I think we're good to go

[ONEDUNME]

Excellent In that case I'll have a couple of quid on her to say "Why does everyone hate one? Is it because I is German?"

[Beanie]

1/20 for that I think ODM.

Where were we?

The value on the 'Best' market lies away from the 'none' I think. Up until now she has alternated the years where she has mentioned herself and after it being all about togetherness etc last time out I think we'll get a little paragraph towards the end on her continuing as Queen. A little nibble at once and twice as there's no way she'll go on about herself for too long.

And even if there's no mention of herself I might get out of jail free with a mention of the armed forces or similar.

1pt Once @ 3.00
1pt Twice @ 10.00

Ratings bet looks straightforward to me too - can't see it nosediving from last year as I think the country's in a bit more of a 'togetherness' funk unlike 12 months ago when everyone was just a little bit tetchy.

Covering the 5.6-8m band as mentioned looks ok to me.

2pts 5.6-6m @ 4.00
2pts 6.1m-8m @ 3.50

And again, I'm still a Middle East fan in the words market - I think Liz will be straight out of the blocks on Iraq. Its her trump card this year and she'll play it early to keep the viewers hooked. With the various conflicts and politics going on the Middle East is more the issue rather than singling out Iraq, but a saver on it nonetheless.

3pts Middle East @ 8.00
0.5pts Iraq @ 8.00
0.5pts Environment @ 13.00

I'm all excited now.

[Beanie]

13 hours to go now...

Just a gentle reminder for everyone to tune in - I need the ratings! Make sure its BBC 1 your tuned to as well.

Good news is that C4 have got some no-name for their alternative message so that should donate quite a few thousand to the cause.

[kompressaur]

Good luck Beanie. I wish i could join you in making the most boring thing in the world interesting

[Beanie]

Stupid bitch.

[Beanie]

Infact...

Just had a look at the transcript on the BBC website:

"As with any team, there is strength in combination: what grandparent has not wished for the best possible upbringing for their grandchildren or felt an enormous sense of pride at their achievements?"



"As children grow up and develop their own sense of confidence and independence in the ever-changing technological environment, there is always the danger of a real divide opening up between young and old, based on unfamiliarity, ignorance or misunderstanding."



Just the ratings punt now

[MickeyPaul]

You go girl!