BAFTAs (Television! Sunday 20th May!)

[stereoman]

It's a long way to go until the 20th May but things are already kicking off. Today's Bettingzone Market Moves:

1235: Sky Bet has installed retro cop show Life On Mars as 11/4 favourite to win the only BAFTA voted by the public, the Pioneer Audience award for best programme of 2006.

The Vicar of Dibley Christmas Special (3/1) is also in the running alongside The Royle Family - The Queen of Sheba (3/1).

Planet Earth is quoted at 4/1, while outsiders of the field are Celebrity Big Brother (5/1) and Dragons' Den (8/1).

Sky Bet's Entertainment Manager, Helen Jacob, said: "This year, competition is very stiff and there is no clear favourite, but having earned a cult status similar to last year's winner Doctor Who, we reckon Life On Mars could be a surprise winner, especially after Celebrity Big Brother has received such negative publicity of late and the fact that the comedy vote may be split between The Vicar of Dibley and The Royle Family."

============

It should win as it's fabulous series but Life on Mars doesn't command a slavishly devoted audience as Doctor Who, who will have the techincal know-how to vote for the show in their droves (by fair means or foul).

I can see The Vicar of Dibley throwing a spanner in the works as although I like Skybet's thinking of the 'split vote' they attract two totally different audiences.

The likely winner will however be Planet Earth because I think the BBC will somehow engineer a win for this pricey series (it lost lost year!). Oh look! Paddy Power goes completely the way...



BETS: £29 on Planet Earth at 4/1 (Skybet) and £30.31 on Life on Mars at 6/1 (Paddy Power) to win the Pioneer Audience Award. Both are maximum bets that they'll allow me.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/6417167.stm

[stereoman]

WHOOPS!! That was fooking quick...



...sorry fellas. It seems like Paddy's are scared of me but they've also seen money on The Royle Family as well. Hmmm.

[stereoman]

Hmmm. Bit of a lottery this and I think only Paddy's are bothering to put any odds. Not much analysis here but here are my predicted winners but what I'm betting on (six bets of £25 each):

Best Actor: Jim Broadbent HAVE BET ON: Michael Sheen
Best Actress: Samantha Morton HAVE BET ON: Anne-Marie Duff
Best Comedy Performance: Stephen Merchant HAVE BET ON: Stephen Merchant
Best Comedy Programme: Little Britain Abroad
Best Continuing Drama: EastEnders
Best Entertainment Programme: The X Factor (already into 8/13 so somebody's punted on it) HAVE BET ON: How Do You Solve A Problem Like Maria?
Best International Programme: Entourage
Best Sport Coverage: Winter Olympics HAVE BET ON: Winter Olympics
BAFTA Pioneer Audience Award: The Vicar of Dibley Christmas Special HAVE BET ON: Life on Mars and Planet Earth
Best Entertainment Performance: Jonathan Ross HAVE BET ON: Jonathan Ross
Best News Coverage: Channel 4 News - News From Iran

Betting ends at 10pm Sunday night.

[Beanie]

Quite like the Maria bet...if only because the X Factor type shows have been lording that cateory for a while now(correct me if I'm wrong there) and Maria was a bit of a variation.

[trickrick]

Suprised to see Entourage as favourite as International programme? Placed in a fair obscure Sunday night slot on ITV2..? Lost is the Biggie and if anything is even bigger now than during the first series..

[stereoman]

I think Paddy's have made Entourage favourite as a default because it won the International Award over at the Royal Television Society awards (albeit against two other programmes that are fairly obscure at least to mainstream viewers anyway).

http://www.rts.org.uk/Information_pa...et.asp?id=5726

The other television awards to note is the Broadcasting Press Guild awards.

http://www.broadcastingpressguild.org/awards/2007.html

Both have a terrible record as to their winners becoming BAFTA winners but I'm willing to take a chance that a few RTS winners foil the 'obvious' picks like Jim Broadbent and The X Factor.

I'd be surprised if Stephen Merchant who's won almost everything he's been up for in the last year falls at the last hurdle (he won Best Actor ahead of Ricky Gervais at the British Comedy Awards gone by).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Comedy_Awards#2006

[stereoman]

Hmmm. Gambles were forming on Liz Smith to win Comedy Performance (12/1 into 6/1) and 'Terrorism Plot at Heathrow' to win News Coverage so Paddy's have put them OTB.

Gamble forming on Life on Mars to win the Pioneer Audience Award (5/4 from 9/4) and The Vicar of Dibley's drifts out a little from 11/8 into 2/1.

The markets remain unmoved for Actor, Actress and Comedy Programme. Casualty's odds to win Continuing Drama comes in ever so slightly from 40/1 into 33/1.

The only gamble left is that some folks have bet on House to win International Programme shunting it's odds from 9/1 into 11/2 third favourite. I'm willing to take a tiny risk that the money is talking truth here (maximum of £34.09 that they'll allow me? Not going to make too much of a dent now is it?).

[lazysunbather]

yea I got in a bet on "Lost" before they took it off, the story line has improved and I've never heard of "Entourage", sounds boring.

[stereoman]

Likely winners as suggested by what's going on at Betfair:

Best Actor: Jim Broadbent
Best Actress: Ruth Wilson
Best Comedy Performance: Stephen Merchant
Best Comedy Programme: That Mitchell & Webb Look
Best Continuing Drama: Coronation Street
Best Entertainment Programme: The X Factor
Best Drama Series: Life on Mars
Best International Programme: House
Best Sport Coverage: Winter Olympics
BAFTA Pioneer Audience Award: The Vicar of Dibley Christmas Special
Best Entertainment Performance: Jonathan Ross
Best News Coverage: Morecambe Bay (ITV)

Very, very weird. 'Best News Coverage' is just about the market with the most action and most of that's on ITV's coverage on Morecambe Bay!

...and just as I said and feared it looks like The Vicar of fucking Dibley's going to win the Pioneer Award. It looks like my night's going to generally suck but with a few 'big' winners (come on House!).

[stereoman]

The actual winners:

Best Actor: Jim Broadbent (BOO!)
Best Actress: Victoria Wood (BOO!)
Best Comedy Performance: Ricky Gervais (BOO!)
Best Comedy Programme: That Mitchell & Webb Look
Best Continuing Drama: Casualty (OOOH!)
Best Entertainment Programme: The X Factor (BOO!)
Best Drama Series: The Street
Best International Programme: Entourage (BOO!)
Best Sport Coverage: Hungarian Grand Prix , ITV (BOO!)
BAFTA Pioneer Audience Award: Life on Mars (HURRAH!!)
Best Entertainment Performance: Jonathan Ross (HURRAH!!)
Best News Coverage: Morecambe Bay (ITV)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/6543947.stm

WOW!! Casualty beat Coronation Street, EastEnders AND Emmerdale to land a 40/1 gamble for some and 33/1 for some others (I think William Hill might have sensed something was afoot as they briefly had this market up but then closed it on the same day, I believe).

It was generally a shite night for myself indeed and the good things generally did win. Should have seen the Victoria Wood gamble coming though. Wish I punted on Casualty to win if only for a sick laugh.

BETS: 9 WON: 2 LOST: 7 TOTAL BET: £243.40 MONEY BACK: £271.54
PROFIT: +£28.14

Unbelievably I've made a tiny bit of profit! Oh if only the other bets (particularly House) won as well. :wasntme

[lazysunbather]

How "lost" was I hmmm it was a strange night I thought some unusual choices.

[trickrick]

Originally Posted by stereoman

BETS: 9 WON: 2 LOST: 7 TOTAL BET: £243.40 MONEY BACK: £271.54
PROFIT: +£28.14

A profit is a profit

However if you had just kept with your original 2 bets you would have been quids in !!!

[stereoman]

Definitely. I spread myself far too thinly when betting thinking I'm gonna nail every single thing I bet on. It's half-ego, half-greed.

If I don't bet on it, they'll come in. If I bet on it, I'm gonna lose.