X Factor (tes thread - see Other Sports for original)

[Hippy Dave]

And not just because of the fluffed lines too, his voice sounded AWFUL.

[Beanie]

Betfair look to have cancelled the market and aren't putting a new one. Pretty poor from them given that a twist was well publicised and they could have made plans for whatever it was.

It also makes me realise how poor the show is without betting to get involved with.

[Beanie]

Grrr...that suspended market has cost a lot of us a nicely priced lay

And whats the betting that in this H2H between Ashley and Kerry(for which Ashley would be at some fairly hefty odds to go) Ashley ends up going because a) - Louis wants to piss off Simon, and b) to give the judges just about the same numbers left(rather than Simon 4, Louis 2, Sharon 2 which is what would happen if Kerry goes.)

I'll be mightily pissed off if he goes as it would be a profitable night missed due to the neptness of betfair.

[Beanie]

Surprising that...thought Louis had plenty of excuses with which to cover up his elimination of the competition but for once he didn't. Good news.

That means whatever we didn't win with the lays this week we can make back next week when one of Simon's acts goes.

Oh and I'll be adding a lay of Eton Road a bit later on to my bets - as mentioned earlier I think they'll get the treatment to ensure Louis features later on, but that can't cover up for what is some dodgy singing from a bunch of guys who don't seem to have any sort of identity.

[stereoman]

Today's Bettingzone Market Moves:

1400: Ben Mills is now the even money favourite to win the X Factor with bookmakers William Hill, the shortest priced early favourite in the history of betting on the show.

"Ben has everything that Simon Cowell needs to make him a star and for my money Ben is one of the bets of the year." said Hills spokesman Rupert Adams.

[stereoman]

Hmmm. Week 4 elimination odds from Victor Chandler:

The Macdonald Brothers 11/5
Nikitta 5/2
Ray 4/1
Robert 9/2
Ashley 5/1
Eton Road 20/1
Leona 33/1
Ben 100/1

[2damnhype]

Aren't they singing Abba songs this week?

If so, I can't imagine Ben or Ashley doing particularly well, Ben will get through no bother, but Ashley... after last week's performance and the bit about him being cocky and stuff the 7/1 at Sporting is worth a tickle.
Simon Cowell likened him to a highly strung race horse and I reckon thats spot on, we all know how great they look in the paddock, but when it comes to performing its a different matter. i feel a bit sorry for him (and others) though really i mean Rod Stewart, Big Band and now Abba Christ what have being able to perform any of those got to do with being a pop star?

[Beanie]

Here's the lineup:

Groups (Louis)
The MacDonald Brothers: 'Fernando'
Eton Road: 'Does Your Mother Know'

16-24s (Simon)
Ashley McKenzie: 'The Winner Takes It All'
Nikitta Angus: 'Dancing Queen'
Leona Lewis: 'Chiquitita'
Raymond Quinn: 'Waterloo'

25 and overs (Sharon)
Ben Mills: 'S.O.S.'
Robert Allen: 'Take A Chance On Me'

[Beanie]

So let's see:

In a fair run race, I don't see any way the McDonalds would survive tonight - that song will lay bare their lack of personality for all to see. But we should see Simon lay into them again, probably on instruction to do so, to create a little controversy and ensure enough votes to keep the annoying bastards in for another week.

As mentioned, could we see a situation where one judge has all 4 left while another has only 1? I really doubt it.

Leonna is plenty good enough to survive whatever she sings. Ben ditto.

Eton Road are being made up as Louis challenge(even though they have next to no chance IMO) so will survive easily enough for a while yet.

That leaves Ray, Ashley and Robert and Nikitta.

If a judge was to just be left with one act, the only way I could see that happening is if Robert goes, as Ben is good enough to be allowed to be Sharon's sole act even for 6 weeks.

Nikitta has 'Dancing Queen' - usually a show stopper, but is one fairly average singer going to be able to pull it off.

Maybe not, but if she goes its a bit of a sausage fest with Leonna left as the only woman - so I think Nikkita might just make it through by the skin of her teeth tonight.

Waterloo for Ray should be a disaster, and ABBA really isn't Ashleys thing.

Hmmmm...Robert at just over 5s to go is a little short for me and I think he could survive in just about any final 2...

Therefore I think it will be either:

Ray v Nikitta
Ray v Ashley
Ashley v Nikkita

Hmmm...I think the judges could just about justify saving Ashley again - I was surprised they did so last week.

I'm not sure though, so I won't get too involved. Just a small bet on Ray @ 8.6 and a saver on Nikitta @ 5.3.

[stereoman]

Hmmm. Ashley being eliminated ahead of Robert? God knows what's the agenda...oh yeah, I forgot, it's to fleece the bookies. Odds for the sixth elimination from William Hill:

Nikitta 13/8
The MacDonald Brothers 7/4
Robert 11/4
Ray 6/1
Leona 33/1
Eton Road 40/1
Ben 50/1

You can see a little of the logic in why they've placed Nikitta as favourite if they decide to get rid of another of Simon's acts as she's the 'weakest' just to even things out a little bit more but I think Leona could surprise, surprise be this year's 'Maria Lawson' shocker.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2006510579,00.html

The results whether it be by mere coincidence shows that 'voters' supposedly won't tolerate backbiting.

[2damnhype]

Where can i find out what the 'theme' for this weeks' vocal linguistics wil be?

[Winrew]

I DONT WATCH IT.......


But ive heard they are doing Ballads ..........

[Beanie]

Ballads it is Winrew. Can't see Nikitta going to leave just one woman so I'd be laying her at that price.

[Beanie]

Guest: Julio Iglesias

Theme: Love Songs

Ray - Crazy Little Thing Called Love
Robert - Always And Forever
Nikitta - Last Dance
Eton Road - From Me To You
Ben - Don’t Want To Miss A Thing
Leona - Sorry Seems To Be The Hardest Word
The Macdonald Brothers - She’s The One

[Beanie]

Not sure if thats the right order but it could be.

Quick thoughts then:

Ray - don't know what to make of him really - good song but I see he's gonna do it swing style again - that might be wearing a little thin but even if he sneaks into the bottom two(and that hasn't looked likely so far as he's getting votes from somewhere(god knows where)).

Robert - Tough song to sing and he's got a dodgy voice as it is. Zero fan base and has already been given plenty of second chances by the judges. In trouble.

Nikitta - Good Saturday night song - bit of a rift with Simon it seems but I don't see her going this week - she's the only one filling the 'girls night in' void which is a big part of the show and I think she'll be ok for this week.

Eton Road - Not going - Louis just couldn't be left with only the McDonalds. They seem to have developed some kind of fanbase in any case.

Ben - Safe, predictable, but thats all he needs just now.

Leona - With the only other woman on a shoogly peg at the mo there's no danger she would go even if she sang really poorly, which is virtually impossible in any case.

The Macdonald Brothers - they've been given their easy ride that was predicted after Louis went down to 2 in the first 2 weeks, but now that Simon has 3 and Sharon 2 aswell its all back to an even playing field. With no more protection they are just the rubbish act they have been all series.

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Looks like a McDonalds or Robert for me...a chunky bet on the Scottish pair at 2.70 and likewise on Rob at 5.60. Lovely Jubbly.