Been a decent X Factor for me so far betting wise - my 3 outright bets turned out to be the final 3, although Ben was my biggest bet of the 3 so not as much moolah as I'd have like. He did get me a lovely return as the top 25 and over tho.
4sure's eviction turned into my most profitable bet in any market for the last 12 months after swearing to revert to small stakes on this stuff
Lost out on the McDonalds a couple of times and Ray going when it was down to the final 4, but all in all much better than last year(which can hardly be said for the show.)
When I caught a few mins of the show last night and Ray was blubbing his eyes out on stage I knew Ben was in a bit of trouble, but its still a surprise given that Ray really doesn't seem marketable at all, and that this looks like the most one sided final for a long time(like Stereo says, probably since Michelle 'Big' McManus.)
He's got the momentum no doubt, but I really think Leonna should be 1.20 or shorter. No doubt the producers will give it all the 'closest vote in years/there's less than 1% in it' rubbish on the night (they did it last year and I really doubt Andy ran Shayne close at all) which will probably give punters the heebie jeebies over Leonna, but I don't see any way in which Ray could go on to become a big selling artist - one hit this Xmas(which might not even make No 1.) and then fade from view. Its not a given with Leonna but she's a better singer and far more marketable, and would atleast have a shot at going on to become something big. With that, and going against the usual white male winners of these type of shows, its surely in the shows interests for her to win this.
The only thing left then is the actual support both can count on - probably the most important factor. Ray does appear to have a decent base given he's made it this far on questionable talent, but did Ben/the McDonalds etc really have big support themselves? Doubtful.
Even if its close in terms of support, the final attracts far more casual viewers than usual, and if you were switching on for the first time to the show and saw the pair perform, you'd be giving your vote to Leonna and wondering how the fuck Ray reaches the final 2 of something like this.
Looks to me like a penalty kick, although this show is perfectly capable of moving the goalposts.
X Factor (tes thread - see Other Sports for original)
TOTW/F/M Award(s): 1
