Half Time Draw System..

[trickrick]

I've always have a thing about half time draws.. I really believe if you can weed out the right matches you can reap the rewards..

Ok some people view it as a lottery, but generally you get teams who don't give anything away away from home or a team who tend to be cautious at home and first halves tend to be a bore draw as they cancel each other out. If you look at the odds on offer for a draw at half time it is usual evens at the minimum and then varying between 11/10 and 6/5. Of course you'll get the occasional biggie at 6/4 or 7/4, but thats normally for a full time banker! Howver although the odds are consistant, there are teams that are more likely to be tied at half time and therefore I presume have over-inflated odds..

Anyhoo, I've devised a basic system on each team based on one or two key factors, namely:-

1. Draws at half time so far this season
2. Average goals conceeded at half time
3. Average goals scored at half time

Put the two teams together and apply the average for the division and if it is well above the average of 100 then there's a good chance it will be a draw at half time..

I am initially testing this out with the English Leagues only

Of course I have decided to test this this weekend when very few league matches thanks to the FA Cup, but I have also identified a couple of FA Cup matches that should end up as draws at half time, so I shall try them out as well..

No cash involved in this by the way..

I havent tried this out before and therefore I reserve the right to pull the plug on this after a few weeks, if it is obvious I am communicating out of my anus...

Ok...I have decided to only identify matches with a rating of 120 or above, but this may change...

Only 1 match identified this week:-

Shrewsbury v Brentford (123.39) - 1 pt @ 6/5 (Bluesq)

However there are a couple of FA cup matches that qualify too..(Of course this may not be wise and if so I shall delete from the record...)

Sunderland v Wigan (142.01) - 1 pt @ 6/5 (Bluesq)
Barnsley v Blackpool (132.81) - 1 pt @ 6/5 (Bluesq)

[trickrick]

Well it wasnt wise to do this exercise with FA Cup matches..(As I suspected..)

However my top ranked league match went to form..0-0 at half time..

[trickrick]

Ok…A full English programme to choose from, so lets see where the trickrick system identifies the half time draws..

Premier League
Derby County v Wigan 6/5
West Ham v Fulham 5/4

Championship
Barnsley v Norwich 6/5
Charlton v Blackpool 6/5
Wolves v Crystal Palace 11/10 NAP!

League 1
Nottingham Forest v Leyton Orient 5/4 NB!
Southend v Yeovil 6/5

League 2
MK Dons v Barnet 13/8 ()

All 1 pt stakes (although this is a paper exercise so no money placed)

As I said last week, I may not include cup matches in the stats (if – as suspected – they don’t achieve the draw)..So it’s league matches only..

So 1 league match identified so far – yay – 100% strikerate!!

Summary
1 Bet placed (1- w, 0 – l)
Total staked – 1 pt
Total Returned – 2.2 pts
Profit/loss +1.2 pts

[trickrick]

Originally Posted by trickrick

Premier League
Derby County v Wigan 6/5
West Ham v Fulham 5/4

Championship
Barnsley v Norwich 6/5
Charlton v Blackpool 6/5
Wolves v Crystal Palace 11/10 NAP!

League 1
Nottingham Forest v Leyton Orient 5/4 NB!
Southend v Yeovil 6/5

League 2
MK Dons v Barnet 13/8 ()

Hmmmm...Not a good day..Oh well, maybe it aint as clear cut as I thought..Still I'll continue for a few more weeks until the towel gets thrown in..

Summary
9 Bet placed (3- w, 6 – l)
Total staked – 9 pt
Total Returned – 6.4 pts
Profit/loss -2.6 pts

[selectabet]

Don't give up trickrick.

It's better to try these things out on a small scale, if its not working then walk away.

I've never been that much a fan of half time betting. Whenever I have dabbled its been on the draw though. I'm finding myself moving further away from any kind of 1X2 betting and sticking to markets with just 2 outcomes, like Asian Handicaps or U/O.

Good luck anyway.

[trickrick]

Cheers mate.. Will continue a bit longer..

Championship
Coventry v Burnley
Crystal Palace v Bristol City

League 1
Leyton Orient v Luton
Swindon v Notts Forest
Yeovil v Oldham

League 2
Accrington Stanley v Brentford

All 6/5 (Bluesq)