It's History man

[jtw1]

After a couple abortive attempts on the systems thread i've decided to put forward a 'system' i post on a couple of other threads .
This involes highlighting teams which have a h2h advantage of at least 4 clear wins in recent seasons over their opponents.
The difference that i will use in the Daily Punt thead is that i will put forward actual bets using the h2h stats and other info which is available and also discount any of those h2h selections using the same info.


So if your with me so far here's todays teams who have a recent advantage over todays opponents -

ACCRINGTON v hereford 4-0-0 , 3.0
MANSFIELD v rochdale 5-0-1 , 2.8
MONTROSE v e stirling 12-1-0 , 1.45
WILLEM II v groningen 10-0-0 , 2.75
AUXERRE v lens 7-1-0 , 2.25
REAL MADRID v espanyol 10-1-0 , 1.57

If i may point out the numbers - the first game features ACCRINGTON v hereford , the team in Italics is the side who holds the advantage and in this case it's a recent record of 4-0-0 in corresponding fixtures against Hereford.
The numbers in bold are the , on average , the best odds using the main bookies on the web.

ACCRINGTON , although they have won the last 4 , at the present time they sit in 15th while HEREFORD are in 4th spot .
ACC'TON have a decent record v teams in the top half of the league - 7-1-11.
HEREFORD however have a very good record v teams from the bottom half - 12-3-3.
With AC'TON having home stats of 5-1-11 [1-0-2 last 3 homes] there must be doubts of them beating HEREFORD so thats a no-bet for me.

MANSFIELD v rochdale at first glance of the league tables would appear to favour the away side but i think a Draw-no Bet could be rewarding.
Rochdale have a 10-5-2 away record , a less impressive 7-4-4
against teams from the bottom half of the table.
Also they have lost their last 5 league games from 6 [ albeit v teams in top half] is confidence affected ?? hope so.
MANSFIELD have a couple of players back from injury/illness and although their home stats are piss poor [ 4-1-14 ] 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 6 h/a games and the need to scrap their way up from the relegation zone leads me to beleive they can gain a point.
Stake 5pts @ 2.0 dnb with Stan James

MONTROSE v east stirling , well even taking into account that they play 2 homes every season agaist each other the 12-1-0 h2h stats are impressive ; combined with their league positions [ 3rd + 9th in a 10 team league] and east stirlings record of 1-1-13 agaist sides in the top half of the league , there surely can only be one result !!

REAL MADRID'S nearly impecccable h2h stats over Espanyol coupled with a home record of 11-0-1 [ Getafe getting a seemingly fortuitous goal ] and the pain of a CL exit midweek and i think a double with MONTROSE could be the bet .
STAKE 5PT double MONTROSE + REAL MADRID [1.44/1.57 with Bet 365]

Sometimes it just pays to go with whats in front of you and with a h2h stat of 10-0-0 why even look at anything else [ Winning 3 from their last 4 homes to nil with the other being a 1-0 defeat against PSV is a positive imo ]so stick 5pts on WILLEM @ 2.75 with HILLS .

The AUXERRE game looks a bit of a quandry , both sides in decent form , no major injury news i can see , both starting to clamber up from the relegation zone .
So lets bite the bullet and put faith in the stats and Stake 5pts on AUXERRE @ 2.25 with Sporting odds.

After all that we had better get a return or i'll go off in the huff

[jtw1]

Well thats the British results in and it's mixed to say the least.
Got it right about ACCRINGTON 0-2 and also the double's still on with MONTROSE winning 2-0.
However seriously over-estimated MANSFIELDS chances against ROCHDALE , 0-4 the final score !!

[jtw1]

ACCRINGTON v hereford 4-0-0 , 0-2
MANSFIELD v rochdale 5-0-1 , 0-4
MONTROSE v e stirling 12-1-0 , 2-0
WILLEM II v groningen 10-0-0 , 1-2
AUXERRE v lens 7-1-0 , 0-0
REAL MADRID v espanyol 10-1-0 , 2-1

MANSFIELD = -5PTS
MONTROSE/REAL = + 11.30PTS
AUXERRE = -5PTS
WILLEM = -5PTS

OK we lost on the day but with WILLEM leading up to the 82nd min when giving away an OG and , with hindsight , a DNB bet would have been the best call with AUXERRE , I think the future looks bright . HONEST !!!!!!!!!

[jtw1]

PORTO v academica 6-1-0 , 1.16
guimares v S LISBON 0-0-7 , 2.7

At 1st glance that appears very generous odds for LISBON but GUIMARES are one place above them in 3rd spot this season and they have only lost one game at home [v BENFICA ] with a home record of 7-2-1.
LISBON have been poor to say the least away from home ,
2-4-5 is the reason their in 4th place.
A draw at BOLTON in the UEFA cup mid-week should have boosted confidence and i think it could be worth taking a DRAW-NO-BET stance with them today -
STAKE 5PTS @ 2.0 with BOYLESPORTS.

PORTO have conceded only 1 goal at home all season , ACADEMICA have conceded 18 away from home so to be able have a bet on this STAKE 5PTS @ 1.7 with S JAMES on PORTO -1 GOAL .
PORTO have won by more than 1 goal 4 times from 7 in this fixture.

Anyone fancy the DNB / -1 double then odds of 1.83/1.53 are available with 365.

[jtw1]

PORTO 1-0
S LISBON 0-2

10PT loss on the day .

Will be having a rethink on those DNB selections as i probably should have learned my lesson from the thread i ran of that nature !!

[jtw1]

Here's Saturday's selections , back with bets later after some study.

SAT
---

ARSENAL v middlesbrough 5-1-0 1.25
WEST HAM v blackburn 7-0-0 2.5
COVENTRY v sheff weds 6-1-0 6-1-0
PETERBOROUGH v notts co 6-0-1 1.4
DEPORTIVO v real madrid 5-1-0 3.75
MONACO v lyon 5-1-0 3.6

[jtw1]

Will try and make this as short as possible , too much waffle just confuse's the issue imo.


ARSENAL - unbeaten at home [12-3-0], have EBOUE back after suspention and TOURE + VAN PERSIE are available after injury.
10-4-1 is their record against teams from the bottom half of the league.
MIDDLESBORO were abysmal against CARDIFF in the cup and with an away record of 3-4-7 [ 2-3-10 v top half teams ] would appear to need a major effort here.
They have ALVES + ALIADIERE back from Inj/ Ban.


WEST HAM - Beaten 4-0 in their last 3 games [ Chelsea h , Liverpool a and Spurs a ] with Dean Ashton out of form they lack a decent goal scorer.
But surely the prospect of a 4th concecutive loss is pretty long especially when MARK HUGHES has admitted on the BBC sport site that the HAMMERS are their bogey side.
BLACKBURN have not lost a game in the league in 10 out of the last 11 games .


COVENTRY- CHRIS COLEMAN is apparently toiling in trying to persuade players to come to Coventry.Their last 4 homes have resulted in a 2-2-0 record .
WEDNESDAY are still in the relegation zone and its their away form thats letting them down - 3-5-9.

PETERBOROUGH - This will be their 9th consecutive win and they top the table on 74pts and are 12-3-3 at home .They have an unchanged side from their last game.
Have won 5 /6 games to nil .
NOTTS CO - 21st of 24 in the league , but worryingly have an away record of 2-10-5 [ 1-10-8 v top half teams ] so they do tend to draw
quite a few aways.

DEPORTIVO - Are on a bit of a upturn in fortunes with thwir last 6 games showing as 4-2-1. The 3 last 3 homes have been wins over SEVILLE[6th] and ESPANYOL [7th] and a draw v GETAFE [9th]
REAL MADRID have lost 2 of their last 3 aways , ALMERIA [8th] 0-2 , R BETIS [15th] 1-2 and a narrow win v 18th placed RECREATIVO.
Van Nistelrooy still out through inj.

MONACO are 6-5-3 at home. They have not scored in 5 of their last 6 league games.
LYON are 6-2-5 away from home.

BETS
-----

ARSENAL / PETERBOROUGH Double *** bet - 10pts
WEST HAM - 5pts win
COVENTRY - 5pts win
DEPORTIVO - 5pts win
MONACO - no bet

[jtw1]

ARSENAL v middlesbrough 5-1-0 1-1
WEST HAM v blackburn 7-0-0 2-1
COVENTRY v sheff weds 6-1-0 0-0
PETERBOROUGH v notts co 6-0-1 0-0
DEPORTIVO v real madrid 5-1-0 1-0
MONACO v lyon 5-1-0 0-3

Double -10pts
coventry -5pts
west ham +7.50pts
deportivo +13.75pts

Slight profit on the day , thanks to Deportivo keeping their great record at the Riazor v Real

[jtw1]

Sunday -

AEK v aris 6-0-0 , 1.55
AJAX v willem 11-1-0 , 1.2
ESPANYOL v mallorca 6-0-0 , 2.1
FULHAM v everton 6-0-0 , 3.5


Nothing to be said about the AJAX game , the stats speak for themselves.

AEK - Their Home/Away record v ARIS is 11-2-0 , they have a home record of 8-1-2 this season and ,although one place above ARIS in the league there is an 11pt gap between them.
ARIS - I beleive they are missing a couple of regular players and have only faced one of the top 3 teams away from home this season ,1-0 defeat to OLMPIAKOS.

ESPANYOL - 7-2-4 at home against MALLORCA'S 5-2-5 away record.
Mallorca have drawn 5 of their last 6 league games while ESPANYOL have lost 4 of their last 6 .

FULHAM - Jimmy Bullard's return has seen him score twice and with Brian Mcbride starting to gain match fitness they will be a far stronger side in the last weeks of the season imo.
They have an abysmal 1-4-11 record v teams from the top half of the league , home stats = 3-5-7.
EVERTON - IF TIM CAHILL misses this , and most reports say he will , then that will be a MAJOR factor here , he's been the spark to thier great run this season imo.
If you , like me , believe that Football is mainly won/lost in the minds of the players , then EVERTON must be mentally exhausted after their efforts in the UEFA cup , where they were put out on penalties after a valiant effort.

Bets
----

ESPANYOL - NO BET
AJAX / AEK - 5PT DOUBLE
FULHAM - 5PT WIN

[jtw1]

ESPANYOL - NO BET - 2-1
AJAX / AEK - 5PT DOUBLE 4-1 / 1-1
FULHAM - 5PT WIN 1-0

[Beanie]

Remember your highly successful GG thread jtw - think the bookies have tightened their belts in terms of H2H bias in recent years from what I saw on your thread and from my own stats, but I do still think there is a slight edge there. Will be watching with interest

[jtw1]

Cheers Beanie

So far - 17 games highlighted , 8 won .
Profit/Loss if 5pt level stake blindly on ALL = -28.25pts

Selected bets = 12 , 4 won
Profit /Loss to recommeded stake = -19.95pts

[jtw1]

BRISTOL ROVERS v swansea 5-0-0 , 2.87

At first glance at the league tables and it looks to be a straight -forward away win with SWANSEA in top spot having an away record of 10-4-3 , ROVERS are in 16th place - 5-8-4 at home .
HOWEVER the Swans are on a bit of a bad roll just with only 4pts from a poss 12 picked up since skipper Gary Monk and fellow defender Marcos Painter suffered injuries.
Those 2 miss tonights game and with Saturdays 4-2 trouncing still fresh in the players memories [ along with losing a 90th min equaliser at home to TRANMERE the game before ] i think ROVERS could be a viable bet.
Only 4 losses at home and the distraction of the FA cup out of the way a surprise result is on the cards.

STAKE 5PTS @ 2.87

[jtw1]

Typical mid-week result

BRISTOL RVRS 0-2




SAT
---

SPURS v portsmouth 4-0-0 , 2.0
B MUNICH v leverkusen 12-1-0 , 1.66
STUTTGART v h rostock 5-1-0 , 1.44
ROMA v empoli 5-1-0 , 1.28
SPARTA PRAGUE v jablonec 6-0-1 , 1.25
WISLA v odra 7-1-0 , 1.22
PSV v groningen 9-1-0 , 1.4
CHARLEROI v lokeren 6-0-1 2.2

Back with bets after some study

[jtw1]

BET 1
-----

STUTTGART - won 5 from last 6 games with home record of
8-1-3. They have an 6-1-6 record in the league v teams from the bottom half.
Sitting in 6th spot , trying for UEFA place.

HANSA - In 14th place and an away record fo 1-2-8 doesn't inspire confidence.In 5 of their last 6 games ,the opposition has been from the bottom of the table and they have only managed to pick up 4 pts [ Sods law = the other game was against 8th placed FRANKFURT which was a 1-0 win !!]

ROMA - must be fancied to bounce back after a 3-2 defeat to city rivals LAZIO in midweek.
Home = 11-2-1 and gainst sides from the bottom half the stats are = 10-3-1. They need 3pts here to keep the pressure on INTER.

EMPOLI - 2-2-10 away from home with only 8 goals scored on those travels , all ppoints to the home win.

SPARTA PRAGUE - A must win game as they face city rivals and top of the league SLAVIA next week .
8-0-2 at home with 21 goals for and only 8 against they must surely have enough fire power to beat JABLONEC who are 1-5-4 away from home , they are in a relegation battle but will hopefully be hoping to pick up points v lower teams in the league.

WISLA - Hard to find any info but a look at the home record of 10-0-0 against a side 10places lower and an away stat of 3-1-6 speaks enough for me.

STAKE 5PT ACCA on above 4.


SPURS - Confidence is restored , imo, at WHITE HART LANE after a superb game in midweek when drawing 4-4 with CHELSEA . Despite being 3-1 down at one stage the fought back and according to reports had a great chance to actually win the game in the dying seconds !
They appear to have no injury or suspensions worries for this one whereas PORTSMOUTH have Defoe ineligible under tearms of his transfer , Sol Campbell injured and MUNTARI + BOUBA DIOP out through suspension.

STAKE 5PTS SPURS


Others - BAYERN , despite their very impressive record v LEVERKUSEN is a no-bet for me . A 2-0 defeat away to COTTBUS last week together with home draws against HAMBURG [ 2ND] and W BREMEN [4TH] doesn't inspire enough confidence at the odds against the 3rd placed team at the odds.

CHARLEROI - Still trying to find out some info for this one so wil leave a final decision until tomorrow.

PSV - Despite GRONINGEN having not won here in 29 attempts [ 23-6-0 ] i , reluctantly pass this by as PSV have only won 2 of their last 6 games .