performance rating picks (virtual paper only)

[Quandram]

I'm just going to log these picks here from my data for a bit until i can get my shit together and back test it properly.

8th Nov
Home win

Waltham Abbey vs Leyton - 3pts @ 1.6
Real Sociedad vs Eibar - 2pts @ 1.75

Away win

Potters Bar Town vs Brentwood Town - 2.5pts @ 1.65
Heybridge Swifts vs Wealdstone - 0.5pt @ 2.55

9th Nov
Away win

Halmstads BK vs Kalmar - 1.5pts @ 2.15

[Quandram]

Originally Posted by Quandram

8th Nov
Home win

Waltham Abbey vs Leyton - 3pts @ 1.6 - won 3-1
Real Sociedad vs Eibar - 2pts @ 1.75 (looks to have been suspended @ 0-0... i'll try to find out wtf going on, will count as void for now)

Away win

Potters Bar Town vs Brentwood Town - 2.5pts @ 1.65 - won 1-2
Heybridge Swifts vs Wealdstone - 0.5pt @ 2.55 - won 0-1

Picks 5
In-play 1
Win 3
Void 1
Lost 0
Staked 9.5pts
Returned 12.2

P/L (inc. stake for in-play) +2.7

[Quandram]

Sociedad game abandoned in added time at 0-0... I'll count it as bet lost when i update the stats

[Quandram]

Halmstad vs Kalmar - Draw 2-2

Picks 5
In-play 0
Win 3
Void 0
Lost 2
Staked 9.5pts
Returned 10.2

P/L (inc. stake for in-play) +0.7

So... positives....

ended up.
Kalmar were ahead at half time.
Sociedad game shouldn't have been a pick, i messed up slightly but i'll leave it in as i posted it.

This system doesn't produce many picks, can't see any for next few days so don't know when i'll be back on this thread.

[Quandram]

You know when you start something and then realise you've been a tit of epic proportions and wish that it was all still nice and quiet and nobody was witness...

well that's what i've done. Found a big error in my formula which means all those games were gash anyway so even though it produced a winning week i'm binning it.

I'll keep the thread for the revised formula picks as and when...

ffs

[Quandram]

Well it can't be any more of a shambles than last week... so here are some picks from a revised system.

i'll level stake for now so that's... erm... 27pts "invested"i think

Home Win
14/11/2008

France

National - Chamois Niort vs Libourne St. @ 1.95

15/11/2008

England

Championship - Derby County vs Sheffield Wednesday @ 2
League 1 - Northampton vs Oldham @ 2.5
Conf South - Maidenhead vs Eastleigh @ 1.83
Unibond League Premier Division - Eastwood Town vs Ilkeston Town @ 1.91
Unibond League Division One North - FC Halifax Town vs Chorley @ 1.35

Italy

Serie B - Livorno vs Treviso @ 1.5

Germany

Bundesliga 3 - Kickers Offenbach vs Jahn Regensburg @ 1.62

Denmark

SAS-Ligaen - AGF Aarhus vs Sønderjyske @ 1.72

Belgium

Tweede Klasse - Beveren vs Eupen @ 1.29

France

Ligue 1 - Lille vs Saint Etienne @ 1.8

16/11/2008

France

Ligue 1 - Nice vs FC Nantes @ 1.91

Away Win
14/11/2008

Ireland

Eircom Premier - UC Dublin vs Galway United @ 1.67

15/11/2008

England

Premiership - West Bromwich Albion vs Chelsea @ 1.35
Championship - Doncaster vs Ipswich @ 2.3
Conf North - Burscough vs Stalybridge @ 1.83
Conf South - Basingstoke vs Braintree Town @ 2
British Gas League Premier Division - Gloucester City vs Corby Town @ 2.2
Unibond League Premier Division Boston United vs North Ferriby United @ 2.88
Ryman League Division One North - Witham Town vs Northwood @ 1.4
Ryman League Division One North - Waltham Forest vs Potters Bar Town @ 2.4
Ryman League Division One South - Croydon Athletic vs Godalming Town @ 1.7
Ryman League Division One South - Sittingbourne vs Metropolitan Police @ 2.4

Scotland

SPL - Hibernian vs Aberdeen @ 3.1
Scottish 3rd - Elgin City vs Montrose @ 2.1

Denmark

SAS-Ligaen - AC Horsens vs Randers FC @ 2.5

16/11/2008

Denmark

Viasat Sport Divisionen - Køge vs Fremad Amager @ 1.5

[Quandram]

Originally Posted by Quandram

National - Chamois Niort vs Libourne St. @ 1.95
Eircom Premier - UC Dublin vs Galway United @ 1.67

Two in so far...

One more pick has turned up for tomorrow

Unibond Premier - Marine @ Bradford Park Avenue - 2.88

I'll total it all up on sunday evening

[Quandram]

Originally Posted by Quandram

Home Win
National - Chamois Niort vs Libourne St. @ 1.95
Championship - Derby County vs Sheffield Wednesday @ 2
League 1 - Northampton vs Oldham @ 2.5
Conf South - Maidenhead vs Eastleigh @ 1.83
Unibond League Premier Division - Eastwood Town vs Ilkeston Town @ 1.91
Unibond League Division One North - FC Halifax Town vs Chorley @ 1.35
Serie B - Livorno vs Treviso @ 1.5
Bundesliga 3 - Kickers Offenbach vs Jahn Regensburg @ 1.62
SAS-Ligaen - AGF Aarhus vs Sønderjyske @ 1.72
Tweede Klasse - Beveren vs Eupen @ 1.29
Ligue 1 - Lille vs Saint Etienne @ 1.8

Away Win
Eircom Premier - UC Dublin vs Galway United @ 1.67
Premiership - West Bromwich Albion vs Chelsea @ 1.35
Championship - Doncaster vs Ipswich @ 2.3
Conf North - Burscough vs Stalybridge @ 1.83
Conf South - Basingstoke vs Braintree Town @ 2
British Gas League Premier Division - Gloucester City vs Corby Town @ 2.2
Unibond League Premier Division Boston United vs North Ferriby United @ 2.88
Ryman League Division One North - Witham Town vs Northwood @ 1.4
Ryman League Division One North - Waltham Forest vs Potters Bar Town @ 2.4
Ryman League Division One South - Croydon Athletic vs Godalming Town @ 1.7
Ryman League Division One South - Sittingbourne vs Metropolitan Police @ 2.4
SPL - Hibernian vs Aberdeen @ 3.1 (2-0 up scum)
Scottish 3rd - Elgin City vs Montrose @ 2.1

16/11/08

Home
France - Ligue 1 - Nice vs FC Nantes @ 1.91
Away
Denmark - SAS-Ligaen - AC Horsens vs Randers FC @ 2.5
Denmark - Viasat Sport Divisionen - Køge vs Fremad Amager @ 1.5

Staked: 28
In-Play: 3
Won 13
Lost: 12
P/L (inc. in-play): -2.78
Yeild (inc. in-play): -9.03% (assuming i've worked it out correctly)

Not too bad so far... worth sticking with this for a while more i think at the moment

[Quandram]

Originally Posted by Quandram

16/11/08

Home
France - Ligue 1 - Nice vs FC Nantes @ 1.91
Away
Denmark - SAS-Ligaen - AC Horsens vs Randers FC @ 2.5
Denmark - Viasat Sport Divisionen - Køge vs Fremad Amager @ 1.5

Staked: 28
In-Play: 0
Won 14
Lost: 14
Strike rate - 50%
P/L (inc. in-play): -0.87
Yeild (inc. in-play): -3.1%

So yes... not the most stunning start but this is all very much a work in progress

[Quandram]

Just throw some up quickly

Away wins

Ryman League Division One South Walton & Hersham vs Fleet Town @ 2.15
Conf South Bishop's Stortford vs Hampton & Richmond @ 2.12

[Quandram]

Originally Posted by Quandram

Just throw some up quickly

Away wins

Ryman League Division One South Walton & Hersham vs Fleet Town @ 2.15
Conf South Bishop's Stortford vs Hampton & Richmond @ 2.12

Staked: 30
In-Play: 0
Won 15
Lost: 15
Strike rate - 50%
P/L (inc. in-play): -0.75
Yeild (inc. in-play): -2.5%

19/11 - Away win
Unibond League Premier Division - Boston United vs Frickley Athletic @ 4

[Quandram]

Originally Posted by Quandram

Staked: 30
In-Play: 0
Won 15
Lost: 15
Strike rate - 50%
P/L (inc. in-play): -0.75
Yeild (inc. in-play): -2.5%

19/11 - Away win
Unibond League Premier Division - Boston United vs Frickley Athletic @ 4

Staked: 31
In-Play: 0
Won 16
Lost: 15
Strike rate - 50%
P/L (inc. in-play): +2.25
Yeild (inc. in-play): +7.26%

[Quandram]

I'm going to split the recording of these up in to home and away banks. Different criteria are being used to pick them and whilst the home bank should (in time) have the better hit rate the smaller odds might well make aways only the way to go. Anyhow i'm doing it and none of you can stop me.

Home
Picked: 12
Won: 6
Lost: 6
P/L: -1.7
Yeild: -14.17%

Aways
Picked: 18
Won: 10
Lost: 8
P/L: +4.95
Yeild: +27.5%

[Quandram]

Home win
21/11/2008 - Germany - Bundesliga 2 - Alemannia Aachen vs VfL Osnabrück - 1.5
21/11/2008 - Germany - Bundesliga 3 - Fortuna Düsseldorf vs E. Braunschweig - 1.67
21/11/2008 - Netherlands - Jupiler League - BV Veendam vs Bvo Emmen - 1.73

22/11/2008 - England - Championship - Burnley vs Doncaster - 1.67
22/11/2008 - England - Championship - Reading vs Southampton - 1.44
22/11/2008 - England - Conference - Altrincham vs Cambridge Utd. - 2.75
22/11/2008 - England - Unibond League Premier Division - Eastwood Town vs Worksop Town - 1.36
22/11/2008 - England - Unibond League Premier Division - Bradford Park Avenue vs Witton Albion - 1.5
22/11/2008 - England - British Gas League South & West Division - Cirencester Town vs Burnham - 2.1
22/11/2008 - England - Ryman League Division One North - Waltham Abbey vs Tilbury - 1.5
22/11/2008 - England - Ryman League Division One North - Aveley vs Hillingdon Borough - 1.2
22/11/2008 - Scotland - SPL - Dundee Utd vs Hamilton - 1.57
22/11/2008 - Scotland - Scottish 2nd - Alloa vs Queen's Park - 2.2

23/11/2008 - Germany - Bundesliga 2 - SC Freiburg vs TUS Koblenz - 1.44
23/11/2008 - Spain - Segunda - Rayo Vallecano vs Alicante - 1.65
23/11/2008 - Denmark - Viasat Sport Divisionen - Hvidovre IF vs Køge - 1.4

Away Win
22/11/2008 - Belgium - Jupiler Pro League - G. Beerschot vs Lokeren - 2.88
22/11/2008 - Belgium - Jupiler Pro League - Roeselare vs FCV Dender EH - 2.88
22/11/2008 - Belgium - Tweede Klasse - - Eupen vs OH Leuven - 2.1
22/11/2008 - Denmark - SAS-Ligaen - - Vejle BK vs Aalborg BK - 2.2
22/11/2008 - England - League 1 - Crewe vs Stockport - 2.4
22/11/2008 - England - Conference - Woking vs Torquay - 2
22/11/2008 - England - Ryman Premier League - Horsham vs AFC Hornchurch - 2.55
22/11/2008 - England - Ryman League Division One South - Walton Casuals vs Eastbourne Town - 2.1
22/11/2008 - England - Ryman League Division One South - Chipstead vs Croydon Athletic - 2.55
22/11/2008 - England - Ryman League Division One South - Whitstable Town vs Worthing - 1.75
22/11/2008 - England - British Gas League Midlands Division - Woodford United vs Leamington - 1.3
22/11/2008 - England - British Gas League Midlands Division - Sutton Coldfield Town vs Leighton Town - 1.9
22/11/2008 - England - British Gas League Midlands Division - Bedworth United vs Atherstone Town - 1.6
22/11/2008 - France - Ligue 1 - Saint Etienne vs Nice - 3.5
22/11/2008 - Germany - Bundesliga - Arminia Bielefeld vs Bayer Leverkusen - 1.73
22/11/2008 - Northern Ireland - IFA Premiership - Cliftonville vs Newry Town - 3.4

23/11/2008 - Denmark - Viasat Sport Divisionen - FC Roskilde vs Kolding FC - 2.2

Home
Picked: 28
In-Play: 16
Won: 6
Lost: 6
P/L: -17.7
Yeild: -63%

Aways
Picked: 35
In-Play: 17
Won: 10
Lost: 8
P/L: -12.5
Yeild: -35.7%

[Quandram]

Originally Posted by Quandram

Home win
21/11/2008 - Germany - Bundesliga 2 - Alemannia Aachen vs VfL Osnabrück - 1.5
21/11/2008 - Germany - Bundesliga 3 - Fortuna Düsseldorf vs E. Braunschweig - 1.67
21/11/2008 - Netherlands - Jupiler League - BV Veendam vs Bvo Emmen - 1.73

22/11/2008 - England - Championship - Burnley vs Doncaster - 1.67
22/11/2008 - England - Championship - Reading vs Southampton - 1.44
22/11/2008 - England - Conference - Altrincham vs Cambridge Utd. - 2.75
22/11/2008 - England - Unibond League Premier Division - Eastwood Town vs Worksop Town - 1.36
22/11/2008 - England - Unibond League Premier Division - Bradford Park Avenue vs Witton Albion - 1.5
22/11/2008 - England - British Gas League South & West Division - Cirencester Town vs Burnham - 2.1
22/11/2008 - England - Ryman League Division One North - Waltham Abbey vs Tilbury - 1.5
22/11/2008 - England - Ryman League Division One North - Aveley vs Hillingdon Borough - 1.2
22/11/2008 - Scotland - SPL - Dundee Utd vs Hamilton - 1.57
22/11/2008 - Scotland - Scottish 2nd - Alloa vs Queen's Park - 2.2

23/11/2008 - Germany - Bundesliga 2 - SC Freiburg vs TUS Koblenz - 1.44
23/11/2008 - Spain - Segunda - Rayo Vallecano vs Alicante - 1.65
23/11/2008 - Denmark - Viasat Sport Divisionen - Hvidovre IF vs Køge - 1.4

Away Win
22/11/2008 - Belgium - Jupiler Pro League - G. Beerschot vs Lokeren - 2.88
22/11/2008 - Belgium - Jupiler Pro League - Roeselare vs FCV Dender EH - 2.88
22/11/2008 - Belgium - Tweede Klasse - - Eupen vs OH Leuven - 2.1
22/11/2008 - Denmark - SAS-Ligaen - - Vejle BK vs Aalborg BK - 2.2
22/11/2008 - England - League 1 - Crewe vs Stockport - 2.4
22/11/2008 - England - Conference - Woking vs Torquay - 2
22/11/2008 - England - Ryman Premier League - Horsham vs AFC Hornchurch - 2.55
22/11/2008 - England - Ryman League Division One South - Walton Casuals vs Eastbourne Town - 2.1
22/11/2008 - England - Ryman League Division One South - Chipstead vs Croydon Athletic - 2.55
22/11/2008 - England - Ryman League Division One South - Whitstable Town vs Worthing - 1.75
22/11/2008 - England - British Gas League Midlands Division - Woodford United vs Leamington - 1.3
22/11/2008 - England - British Gas League Midlands Division - Sutton Coldfield Town vs Leighton Town - 1.9
22/11/2008 - England - British Gas League Midlands Division - Bedworth United vs Atherstone Town - 1.6
22/11/2008 - France - Ligue 1 - Saint Etienne vs Nice - 3.5
22/11/2008 - Germany - Bundesliga - Arminia Bielefeld vs Bayer Leverkusen - 1.73
22/11/2008 - Northern Ireland - IFA Premiership - Cliftonville vs Newry Town - 3.4

Void (frozen pitch) - 23/11/2008 - Denmark - Viasat Sport Divisionen - FC Roskilde vs Kolding FC - 2.2

Home
Picked: 28
In-Play: 0
Won: 13
Lost: 15
P/L: -5.72
Yield: -20.53%

Aways
Picked: 35
In-Play:
Won: 18
Lost: 16
Void: 1
P/L: 6.23
Yield: 17.8%