'2 an 3 a 4'

[kompressaur]

I was keeping an eye on this bet last season but due to banking probs i couldnt get on it. Ive missed last weeks games due to finance and it was only when i saw it had come up again i thought it might be interesting to follow it to see how it does. I worked out that last season it would have been well in profit.

Anyhow its bluesq's market on there being 2-3 goals or 4+ goals in a game in the scottish premier. this week the odds are-

11/10
7/5
x
10/11
11/4
x
10/11
12/5
x
10/11
11/4
x
10/11
11/4
x
evens
9/4

= 64 bets. I'll do it as 1pt staked (64pts per week/midweek)

Last week it came up at rought odds of

10/11 - 10/11 - 10/11 - 10/11 - 7/5 - 11/10 = 66.95

so by my reckoning thats 2.95pt profit. All you need is a couple of non old firm games having 4 or more goals and it would pay for 2 weeks stake.

It might sound shite but i'll see what happens. Anyone got any historical data on this? thanks

[ONEDUNME]

Interesting one Komp. Good luck

[kompressaur]

thanks ODM. Truth be told we'll just start it from this week as that 2.95 profit is debatable

[ONEDUNME]

I'm sure I read somewhere that the season usually has some sort of bias when the weather gets worse in the winter with more goals being scored due to the pitches not being in such good condition and causing more mistakes as well as tiring defenders.

I might just be talking bollocks though. It's been known to happen occasionally.

[Kop66]

Interesting idea, Good luck Komp

[kompressaur]

I can see how that could be ODM. From memory in my football playing days i did better with a bit of sun on my back (like Pride Of Pendle) We would have warm cup final nights with a nice pitch and we'd be banging goals in and thinking we were Pele. In the winter and in the wet it took concentration to just stand up sometimes and there wasnt much football being played and ...actually im just talking bollocks too.

I suppose a system can be tweaked but i'll go with it hard and fast this season.

[kompressaur]

WEEK ONE
Aberdeen 1 - 1 Inverness C.T.
Falkirk 1 - 0 Dunfermline
Kilmarnock 2 - 1 Hibernian
Rangers 2 - 2 Dundee United
St. Mirren 2 - 0 Motherwell
Hearts 2 - 1 Celtic

BANK -64pts

[CJ Mars]

I'm sure I read somewhere that the season usually has some sort of bias when the weather gets worse in the winter with more goals being scored due to the pitches not being in such good condition and causing more mistakes as well as tiring defenders

The reverse is actually true. The most goals are scored in September and October, start to dip in November and December and hit a low in January and February before climbing again. Kevin Puellin has written about it on a few occasions in the RP. I can't recall the reasons why.

[ONEDUNME]

Bloody hell. That's interesting stuff. Wonder if we could get hold of his article online?

[kompressaur]

can anyone get hold of this week's odds for my 'system'? I cant see them on the bluesq site

[kompressaur]

WEEK TWO

5/4
11/10
x
21/20
8/5
x
evens
12/5
x
evens
15/8
x
10/11
11/4
x
11/10
11/8

[kompressaur]

is it me or has the odds tightened since last season? usually i'd getr a couple of 11/4's in there. Last week there was 3.

[kompressaur]

FTCeltic 2 - 0 St. Mirren
FTHearts 0 - 0 Falkirk
FTInverness C.T. 0 - 0 Hibernian
FTKilmarnock 0 - 0 Dundee United
FTMotherwel 0 - 2 Aberdeen
FTDunfermline 1 - 1 Rangers

-128pts

[kompressaur]

week 3 odds

10/11
11/4
x
10/11
12/5
x
evens
12/5
x
evens
21/20
x
evens
21/20
x
evens
7/4

=64pts staked

[kompressaur]

one let me down. always gonna be dundee utd v dunfermline wasnt it?

bank - 172pts (minus)