Conference Home Win System

[CJ Mars]

In punting terms thanks to the fine efforts of the likes of A.M.P and others non league punting looks like carrying on where it left off last season and being a massive hit again on the Daily Punt. With that in mind here goes a little home win system I’ve been playing with.

Have been testing something on the Conference using Football Data’s stats and odds from last season (the first season such information was available). I think I’ve noticed a little pricing quirk. I won’t go into details but based on last year’s results only it would have given a yield of nearly 13% (over 110 bets). Only home wins will be picked. Most selections are odds against. Will divide into A bets and B bets. The former are “Naps”

Stakes will be fixed stakes 2 units (unless stated) with a start bank of 100 units.


A BETS

Southport to beat Woking @ 13/10 (Hills) ++
York to beat Exeter @ 11/8 (Sporting Odds) **1 Unit

B BETS

Altrincham to beat Stevenage @ 15/8 (Hills)
Cambridge to beat Northwich @ Evs (Stan James)
Oxford to beat Halifax @ 10/11 (Sporting Odds)
Tamworth to beat Weymouth @ 8/5 (Sporting Odds)

++ Unbeaten in last 4 at home vs Woking
**7 of their last 10 meetings have gone over 2.5 goals by the by

[CJ Mars]

Better prices out on Betfair for some selections

A BETS

Southport to beat Woking @ 13/10 (Hills) ++
York to beat Exeter @ 11/8 (Sporting Odds) **1 Unit

B BETS

Altrincham to beat Stevenage @ 15/8 (Hills)
Cambridge to beat Northwich @ 2.14 (BF)
Oxford to beat Halifax @ 2.04 (BF)
Tamworth to beat Weymouth @ 2.7 (BF)

[A.M.P]

Best of luck with the system CJ. I'll definitely be looking in on your progress!

I'll have to look into that Football data stuff then!

[CJ Mars]

I'd recommend Joe's site unreservedly. I subscribed one payment about 5 years ago. Was around 12£. Data for 15 leagues in easily manipulated EXCEL with conference added last season and he is always trying to improve it.

[CJ Mars]

I actually got matched on Altingham at 3.45 so have amened that price. 2 home draws for York and Southport whom I fancied mean a small loss to start with.

A BETS

Southport to beat Woking @ 13/10 (Hills) ++ -2 Units
York to beat Exeter @ 11/8 (Sporting Odds) -1 Unit

B BETS

Altrincham to beat Stevenage @ 3.45 (BF) +4.56 Units
Cambridge to beat Northwich @ 2.14 (BF) -1 Unit
Oxford to beat Halifax @ 2.04 (BF) +1.98 Units
Tamworth to beat Weymouth @ 2.7 (BF) -2 Units

Current Loss -0.46 Units

[CJ Mars]

Just one for tomorrow / Wednesday.

Stevenage to beat York @ 1.93 (BF)

[CJ Mars]

Stevenage to beat York @ 1.93 (BF) -2 Units

Very poor home defeat for Stevenage

[A.M.P]

Agreed, they need to sort it out sharpish. Maybe Lee Phillips from Exeter would provide the spark.

Not gonna be about much as I'm moving but looking at the homes for the weekend I'd fancy Weymouth @ or around 1.8 and 6/4 on the Vics.

I'll just check now and see if there's any early prices for those...

Well Northwich are even money with Sky so it'll be interesting if this is advanced upon. The Terras are 1.8 though. Again, will be interesting how that price goes given the respective starts.

BTW if you go to the bottom of this page:

http://www.nonleaguegambler.com/leag...?competition=2

You'll be able to find the respective match reports. Currently there's an un-uniform gap as some sites publish reports straight after the game. Other times it's two days later. I'm taking one from each camp and trying to pick the best ones. Sometimes the offcial sites are rubbish so I find the relative fans forum threads that discuss the games.

I'll look back in on your picks for the w/e when I get settled.

GL.

[CJ Mars]

Exeter to beat Altringham @ 1.66 (Coral)
Gravesend to beat York @ 2.58 (BF)
Halifz to beat Greys @ 2.44 (BF)
Weymouth to beat Cambridge @ 1.86 (BF)

[A.M.P]

GL with your picks!

I'm on the Muff and just got 2.4 at Betfair for the Vics.

Also the Daggers are layed on there for 1.94 and I can't understand this as Tamworth are poor. Whilst the best online price for the home is 8/11 I can't understand why someone would offer that premium so this thread has got me checking BF on Friday / Saturdays now for jems like that and the aforementioned vics.

I won't keep highjacking your thread I promise!

[ONEDUNME]

Originally Posted by A.M.P

I'm on the Muff and just got 2.4 at Betfair for the Vics.

Also the Daggers are layed on there for


I won't keep highjacking your thread I promise!

If you do, at least have the decency to speak fuckin English

Muffs? Vics? Daggers?

How many times must I ask you non-league types to keep it simple for us non-non-league types

[mrmuzeman]

The Muff = Weymouth

Daggers = Dagenham (sounds cooler tho eh)

Vics = Northwich Victoria

[ONEDUNME]

Yeah I'd worked it out thanks Muze (and I was on the Muffs all last season as it happens ) but my general point is -as it was last season - that you non league officianado's would be more likely to build up a fan club if we knew what the fuck you were on about

I need to apologise for hijacking CJ's thread too but it's a general point that if I'm a punter who normally bets on the English Prem and I see "Get on Tonbridge Angels on Saturday at 6/4" I've got to trawl through half a million games to find what league the cunts are playing in, whereas it would only take you guys a millisecond to add (Ryman Prem).

I know that it's your info and you can present it how you damned well like but it would just be easier for others to follow, that's all I'm saying.

[mrmuzeman]

Fair enough ODM although I do actually do that most of the time. AMPs the one you want to haul over the coals with his eastern hemisphere shorthand ways. Hes rushing out to buy beers for shillin' n hayp-knee he aint got time

CJ will understand

[ONEDUNME]