Hey we’ve scored 3 Goals or More System

[CJ Mars]

Hey we’ve scored 3 Goals or More System

This is based on backing teams that have scored 3 or more goals in their last game. The idea behind it is I suppose that teams who have bagged 3+ goals have some confidence behind them and will hopefully bring it into their next match. It’s a blunt enough approach on the face of things but having backtested Championship and Division 1 last season (just over 140 bets) it would have made a yield of over 11% with a strike rate above the average % of home or away wins. It also throws up nice prices on the winners as over 85% of the qualifying teams are away the next round. It will be Championship, Division 1, 2 and possibly conference. I hope to extend the backtesting to the Coca Cola 2 and the Championship for last season which should give a sample of around 500 games. The problem with the small sample size is that 5 or 6 long priced winners going the wrong way would put a nasty gloss on the thing.

Stakes 2 units but this will be reduced if I feel the 3 goals were achieved under less than “normal” conditions (playing 9 men, lots of penalties etc). Start bank 100 units. Given how rigid it is I hope no one will mind if I include some bets from yesterday that would have qualified already.

Yesterday

Oldham vs Port Vale @ 5/2 +5 Units
Wrexham vs Grimsby @ 2/1 -2 Units
Accrington vs Darlington @ 7/4 +3.50 Units

Profit +6.5 Units

Tonight

Chesterfield vs Carlisle @ 13/10 (Ladbrokes)
Boston United vs Peterborough @ 13/8 (Betfred)

[slick]

Good luck CJ and i take it u mean 3 or more by a team and not the actual match total score?

[CJ Mars]

Thats right Slick. Should have made that clearer.

[CJ Mars]

Ended up taking Betfair prices on both

Tonight

Chesterfield vs Carlisle @ 2.54
Boston United vs Peterborough @ 3.10

[CJ Mars]

Sweet late goal from the prolific Simon Yeo to give 10 man Peterboro
a fine away win

Chesterfield vs Carlisle @ 2.54 -2 Units
Boston United vs Peterborough @ 3.10 +4 Units

Profit 8.5 Units

[slick]

Nice on CJ and good luck again, this should prove interesting.

[CJ Mars]

Saturday qualifiers

Colchster vs Barnsley @ 3.25 (Betfair)
Doncaster vs Tranmere @ 2.00 (Power)
Huddersfield vs Bristol City @ 2.50 (Coral)
Hereford United vs Chester @ 3.1 (Betfair)
Wrexham vs Peterborough @ 2.46 (Betfair)

Palace play Sunday and waiting for better price

[CJ Mars]

Another good day for this system. Only Chster lost from the selections but Wrexham and Doncaster could only manage a point. Like midweek a late late goal (thanks Huddersfield) keeps this ticking nicely

Colchster vs Barnsley @ 3.25 (Betfair) +4.28 Units
Doncaster vs Tranmere @ 2.00 (Power) -2 Units
Huddersfield vs Bristol City @ 2.50 (Coral) + 3 Units
Hereford United vs Chester @ 3.1 (Betfair) -2 Units
Wrexham vs Peterborough @ 2.46 (Betfair) -2 Units

Current Profit +9.77 Units (Yield 48.83%) Can't see that yield lasting

[CJ Mars]

Leicster were a qualifier tonight (slightly unlucky not to win) @ 3.45 -2 Units

All bets BF 2 Units

Derby vs Norwich @ 3.15
Port Vale vs Chesterfield @ 4.1
Shresbury vs Boston @ 4.1
Carlise vs Leyton Orient @ 4.2

[CJ Mars]

Derby vs Norwich @ 3.15
Port Vale vs Chesterfield @ 4.1
Shresbury vs Boston @ 4.1
Carlise vs Leyton Orient @ 4.2

5 Losers from 5 over the weekend . Managed to turn a profit of 9.77 Units on Thursday into a loss of 0.23 Units on Saturday 5.00..

Now thats what I call gambling

[CJ Mars]

2 Units unless noted

Leicester vs Southend @ 5.3 (BF) 1 Unit
Blackpool vs Gillingham @ 2.12 (BF)
Bradford vs Rotherham @ 1.90 (BF)
Yeovil vs Port Vale @ 7/4 (Lads)
Bristol Rovers Vs Shresbury @ 3.1 (BF)
Macclesfdield vs Wycombe @ 2.6 (BF)
Notts Coubnty vs Peterboro @ 2.6 (BF)
Wrexham vs Barnet @ 5.1 (BF ) – 1 Unit

[CJ Mars]

What a system For lays

Leicester vs Southend @ 5.3 (BF) 1 Unit -1 Unit
Blackpool vs Gillingham @ 2.12 (BF) -2 Units
Bradford vs Rotherham @ 1.90 (BF) - 2 Units
Yeovil vs Port Vale @ 7/4 (Lads) - 2 Units
Bristol Rovers Vs Shresbury @ 3.1 (BF) -2 Units
Macclesfdield vs Wycombe @ 2.6 (BF) + 3.2 Units
Notts Coubnty vs Peterboro @ 2.6 (BF) -2 Units
Wrexham vs Barnet @ 5.1 (BF ) – 1 Unit nice draw here

Current Loss -9.03 Units

In terms of the seletions there were a number of draws but even laying the opposition would have produced a loss.

Fact that this would have made money last year seems to be nothing other than a quirk at this stage. Will keep it going for another while.

[CJ Mars]

Busy at work so no time to post these this morning. The system's choices are fixed in backing all who scored 3 or more in their last outings so I think I can include them without anyone crying foul .


Burnley vs Colchester @ 7/2 (Hills) +7 Units
Derby vs Sunderland @ 6/4 (Lads) -2 Units
Coventry vs Norwich @ 7/4 (Bet 365) -2 Units
Ipswich vs Southampton @ 8/5 (Hills) +3.2 Units

Tranmere vs Bristol City @ 5/4 +2.25 Units
Bournemouth vs Crewe @ 11/8 (Coral) +2.75 Units
Yeovil vs Notts Forest @ 6/5 (Hills) +2.4 Units


MK DOns vs Hartleppol @ 10/11 (Bet 365) -2 Units
Yeovil vs Lincoln @ 15/8 +3.75 Units

Good day - Profit of 15.35. If I was putting money down I'd be well pleased

Profit to date 6.32 Units
To date :

[CJ Mars]

Some bets for tonight. Again the selections are pre-determined in advance and none are winning at the moment either .

Ipswich vs Coventry @ 11/5 (Bet Direct)
Barnet vs Boston @ 5/4 (Skybet)
Hartlepool vs Mansfield @ 5/2 (Power)
Chester City vs Notts County @ 2/1 (Hills)
Darlington vs Bury @ 8/11 (Boyles)

[CJ Mars]

Ipswich vs Coventry @ 11/5 (Bet Direct) - 2 Units
Barnet vs Boston @ 5/4 (Skybet) -2 Units
Hartlepool vs Mansfield @ 5/2 (Power) -2 Units
Chester City vs Notts County @ 2/1 (Hills) -2 Units
Darlington vs Bury @ 8/11 (Boyles) +1.45 Units

Current Loss : 0.23 Units