Have been keeping track since the start of the season for each team on how many goals there are in each half for their games, the idea being to try to find teams with a disproportionately high number of first half goals, since the bookies just seem to price all games up the same - 3.10 1st half, 2.10 2nd half, 3.50 the tie - regardless of the records for the teams involved.
Am looking at the respective home and away records for the teams involved, and intend to back the first half to be highest scoring if more than 60% of the games involving the two sides have had the 1st half as the highest scoring half, and back the 2nd half to be highest scoring if more than 80% of the games have ended that way. Should point out those are just figures I've decided on myself, not based on any kind of calculations to get to those percentages.
This is probably confusing, I'm waffling.
Best thing I guess is to list today's selections:
Carlisle v Northampton - selection
first half @ 3.10
- 2 of Carlisle's 3 home games and 2 of Northampton's 3 away games have had most goals in the 1st half, so 4 from 6 or 66%
Swansea v Bradford - selection
second half @ 2.10 - all 3 of Swansea's home games and 2 of Bradford's 3 away games have had most goals in the second half, so 5 from 6 or 83.33%
Port Vale v Blackpool - selection
second half @ 2.10 - all 3 of Vale's home games and 2 of Blackpool's 3 away games have had most goals in the second half, so 5 from 6 or 83.33%
Have not included the top 2 leagues, as want to wait until all teams have played 3 home and 3 away. Am also keeping track on the top 2 Spanish divisions, and will do the same with those once they've played 6 games in total.
Will start with a bank of 100pts, 1pt per selection, so bank currently 97pts after the above 3 selections.
1st half/2nd half most goals system
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for a good start anyway.
