ODM's Quality Street System

[ONEDUNME]

Everyone's someone's favourite.

Aren't favourites shite bets. The shorter the price, the more money I've lost on them. My personal hates are short priced aways on football but horses are just as bad.

I'm going to invest a grand and make a profit by laying the fuckers.

Starting bank 1000 pts

First bet lay of Estimator in the 450 race at Wolves today at a price of 1.81.
Profit of 15 pts (after commission) and a risk of 11.02 points.

[ONEDUNME]

The lay price is now down to 1.58 so I should have waited. It never fails to amaze me how people who have been racing all day and find themselves lighter in the pocket than when they started the day, suddenly look around for a "cert" to get their money back with. Sometimes it works. More often, it doesn't and the shorter the price gets, the more the loons jump in convinced that it must be a winner.

Five minutes to the off. This is when the price starts bouncing back out again. The SP will probably be around 8/11.

[ONEDUNME]

Well first one a loser (or a winner, whichever way you look at it)

Starting bank 1000 pts
1st bet a loss of 11.02 points
Remaining bank 988.98 points.


Stick with me Rodney. This time next year we'll be millionaires. I'm here for the long term.


Bet 2 is a lay of Brum to beat Luton tomorrow to win 20 pts (after 5% comm) or lose 9.03 pts.

[ONEDUNME]

Bet 3 is a lay of Iktitaf to win the 155 at Leopardstown and beat Brave Inca.


Profit of 15 points (after comm) and a risk of 10.71 points

[kompressaur]

could you explain that 3rd bet to a laying novice as myself ODM please? thanks

[ONEDUNME]

Yes I certainly can Komp.


If you go to betfair then "horse racing -todays card" and click on the 1.55 race at leopardstown you'll see....

3Iktitaf

1.67
£315

1.68
£400

1.69
£153
1.7
£213
1.71
£1610

1.72
£80

Vacant2Brave Inca R Walsh

2.78
£770

2.8
£254

2.82
£252
2.84
£207
2.9
£40

2.96
£5

Vacant1Al Eile

17
£11

17.5
£28

18
£43
18.5
£14
19
£88

19.5
£5

Vacant4Silent Oscar

200
£2

240
£2

280
£14
300
£2
320
£8

[ONEDUNME]

Well that's not come out right has it

[ONEDUNME]

Anyway, the fourth one down after Iktitaf's name is the lay price which is currently showing at 1.7.


If I want to make £10 by laying this, I have to place a lay bet of £10.50 to allow for the fact that 50 pence will be taken off my winnings by the nice people at betfair.

Therefore I will either win £10 or lose 10.5 x .7 on the lay which is 7.35.

[kompressaur]

ah so you dont think Iktitaf will win ODM? What price is the other horse tw? nah its ok it really hasnt sunk in and my head is sore again. My brain cant compute

[ONEDUNME]

Bet 4 is a lay of Armariver in the 145 Taunton 15 to lose 11.81. Off soon

[ONEDUNME]

Bet 3 has drifted slightly giving me the opportuning to back it for a free bet to win me one pound - whoops - I mean one point, if the fav wins but I'm going to let it ride.

[ONEDUNME]

Nah change of plan now. It gives me a free bet of 0 to win 1.3 pts if Iktitaf wins. It's a miniscule profit but it's a free bet so I'll take it.


Closing bet 3 at 1.77 to win 1.3 pts if fav wins.

[ONEDUNME]

Well my lay on bet 3 came good but unfortunately I backed it back and made fuck all


That's the gamble.

Bet 1 = -11.02
Bet 2 not settled
Bet 3 = 0
Bet 4 = -11.81

-22.83 so far.

[ONEDUNME]

Bet 1 = -11.02
Bet 2 = +20
Bet 3 = 0
Bet 4 = -11.81

-2.83 so far.
Bet 5 A lay of the fav Skippers Brig in the 340 at Haydock to win 10pts after comm or lose 13.7 points

[ONEDUNME]

Bet 5 won and therefore lost if you see what I mean


Bet 6 A lay of Man Utd to beat Newcastle today to win 15 points after com or lose 9.45 points.