Niche

[Keith]

Some of you will no doubt laugh and sneer at what I am about to say and will accuse me of "stating the bleedin obvious". You may be right and in some areas of my gambling life I will accept that I am still quite naive.

But I do want to share my thoughts as there are still a number of other members who are young and inexperienced.

Some of you may have noticed that I have stumbled into the world of Irish Football and this was really only to give me an interest during the summer months.

The success however is nothing short of stunning especially when you bear in mind that three weeks ago I would have been hard pressed to even name more than a couple of Irish teams let alone give an opinion on their prospects of winning week in week out.

During last season I spent 10 long hard months accumulating a profit of 250pts. The Irish football has given me a profit of 75pts in less than 1 month. This rate of return may not be sustained but it has made me think that there may be reasons behind such a performance other than the few hours labour.

I looked at some teams priced up at 2/1 or bigger and thought I must be missing something as their chances just seemed so obvious but no they just kept on winning

Also tavel mentioned in another thread that Punters Lounge were very good on the gambling front. I always thought that they had an over inflated opinion of themselves personally but then I tried to remember who did actually impress me.

The answer was in fact very few who generally frequented the English leagues and likewise those who wrote about the Spanish and Italian didn't impress either.

The real stars could be found in the minority interest areas such as Scotland, the lower ends of the non league scene, German 2nd division and one or two others.

My conclusion is that the odds complers spend about 3 seconds on each game in these minority interest leagues and their research does not extend beyond the current league table and last weeks results.

I can understand why and no doubt they are content simply to react to any weight of money.

Therefore the clever and anyone who is prepared to put a bit of effort in themselves are able to exploit a number of high value opportunities although I can imagine we would also have to be wary of getting greedy.

Next season I have a plan. I will continue to follow Premiership and Championship games as the form is more reliable and information is there in abundance. However I will ditch completely 1st and 2nd division games and will instead focus on say for example Conferencs South teams

[kompressaur]

good stuff Was and i totally agree. As you'll know i only look at Scot's 1,2,3 and to me its better that way as it lets me concentrate my efforts on that whilst the SPL boys get on with their bit. Ive shown good profit on the aussie football and im keeping a record in the tipsters forum.

Next season for me it will only be Scots 1,2,3 and Aussie football for me. I'll pick and chose other bets from the folks that are in the know when needs be.

[MickeyPaul]

I also agree Was and it's a point I've tried making on the Scots leagues quite a few times (no one ever bloody listens to me ).

The odds never seem to take into account a team being particularly strong at home while struggling overall for example (lower leagues I'm talking), and some folk may remember my love affair with Stenny a few seasons back when they couldn't get a point away but were going great at home. Every home game they'd be odds against despite managing to consitently beat teams that on paper looked superior.

Anyhoo, you're spot on regarding the leagues the bookies are TOO LAZY to bother with.

[mr onemore]

I think that's an excellent point Was - and well worth stating.

Specialising has got to be a key factor - and it's one advantage that a punter always has over a bookie, especially in the way you suggest with so-called minority interest leagues. I think you've put it very well...

[Beanie]

To back that up even more, the English Non League thread on PL was always outstanding - probably the best of all the threads on that messageboard. The three main posters were LeverstockGreen, Shipsupstreets and deets, and there was barely a week that went by without all three showing a profit or tipping a few odds against winners.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by Beanie

To back that up even more, the English Non League thread on PL was always outstanding - probably the best of all the threads on that messageboard. The three main posters were LeverstockGreen, Shipsupstreets and deets, and there was barely a week that went by without all three showing a profit or tipping a few odds against winners.

Your right and I would often pop in to see them to share my theories and ask for their advice and we made money together.

Leverstock Green can often be found posting on The Conference South Forum under a different name.

But I'd also mention that AMP was also a major contributor until he took a break last December

[A.M.P]

Cheers WAS.

I don't need to blow my own trumpet but last season was the first real season I really stepped it up (i.e going from a semi-fun acculminator (sp?) to serious singles). I remember one week I was devastated that I lost $200 on FA cup qualifiying games. The next week I made it back. The week after I was in significant profit. I didn't keep monthly records, only week to week but overall I showed a healthy profit. Unfortunately I put the profit into outrights and I think you know I'm still in dispute with an online bookmaker for my $2,500 winnings. Anyway, moving on.

The way I saw it at the time was that if Henry or Rooney broke a toenail, the whole nation knows about it. However, if a non-league team has it's star striker out (and perhaps three others - I seem to remember the situation at Dunstable when Shipupstreets or Deets put everybody onto a squad walk out) the odds will stay the same. At non-league level one player can make the team.

My personal favourite last year was the FA competitions (Vase, Trophy and FA Cup qualifying). The odds on these competitons were very slack. I emailed Bet 365 yesterday and they confirmed that they'll be covering the Vase from the 2nd round proper (November) and the Trophy and FA Cup from the start. I find this hard to believe but I've mailed them twice and they've said the same thing.

This is the biggest problem with the non-league scene - there are only a few bookies who have markets.

However, this year I've decided that I'll be concentrating on the Nationwide South, and probably the Unibond again. I've already had a big single and two "savers" on the Conf South (which I know you don't like WAS but I think Weymouth will walk it and Lewes and Cambridge at about 12.0 and 15.0 are good E/W bets) which sets the scene and for me generates an immediate interest.

The Conference South is really the lowest level you can go to be well covered. By this I mean you get HT / FT without calling the clubhouse (something I've done many times) by going to the Sky Sports website. Conf South also has major bookie representation. Last season I was using mainly Bet 365, Sky and Stan James so sometimes there were quite significant odds discrepencies.

For me I always follow a kind of system. Statistics, opinion, gut-feel and mixed in there is an analysis of the teams chances with the odds available (that often mis-overused term "value").

The thing about the PL posters that you mentioned (and I can think of others such as nonleague himself and toshibakid) is that thet actually go to see the games and as with many things primary information (as long as it's unbiased - now I'm remembering Mid Devon Punter's write ups, which were also good) is a valuable tool. However, you'll find if you take the time there's enough forums and club sites out there to take an opinion on a lot of "obscure" (dare I say it) games. I do dare, because in the end I can bet on it and make money. If there's 75,000 or 75 and a dog I don't really care, show me the money!

I'm really loking forward to the new season.

AMP

[CJ Mars]

Nice post Was

There’s a nice little line in a recent book on soccer betting that goes “a 3 to 1 winner in a non league match pays the exact same as a 3 to 1 winner in the World Cup” yet non league betting is often the ugly bridesmaid of soccer betting due to the comparative lack of glamour. The fact is like you say that due to incomplete information the chances of landing a nice little coup are often greater than in the more publicised ;eagues where every man and his dog have an opinion.

It’s the case in minority spots generally such as athletics where the bookies might not have a dedicated compiler and will often find themselves vulnerable to the shrewdies. I make a % or two on my men’s tennis bets but I made 10% last year on nearly 300 ladies bets and am doing reasonably this year. I don’t think I know more about ladies tennis than mens but I do know the bookies and the majority of exchange punters would be comparatively ignorant of the women’s game. It’s a similar situation with respect to the lower English leagues where one vital piece of info available to the dedicated fan yet not known to the bookmakers or indeed the general public can make a mockery of the odds.

One word of warning. I’m not sure how many games you are basing your Irish experience to date on but it is possible that you are just on an exceptional run at the moment and that things will level off (but hopefully stay profitable ) for you.

[traeth]

I've got to agree with you was as I am in profit following your tips especially Longford [ who have become my favourite ] -followed your advice last night and did not bet.
cheers mate and keep up the good work

[Keith]

Hi CJ

I have had 12 winning bets and 3 losers All priced at 11/10 or better and a good few at 2/1+. They have all been posted here on the various threads since 3/6/05. I also gave my reasons for most selections.

Don't worry. I've still got my feet on the ground although I did get carried away a bit when UCD reserves played Shambolic Rovers first team in the LC (Otherwise my profit would actually be 90pts)

ps I've just remembered that all 3 losers were in the League Cup competion. I was never that good at picking winners in the Carling Cup either.

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Interesting this is. Ive thought about this before but never done anything about it. Some very good points are made and its all about putting in the effort and hours and you will reap the benefits.

Im really interested now in getting involved with an "unknown" league to our bookies. I quite fancys the MLS in America. Odds are frequently good and there always seems to be value. Plus i manage to catch the games on Channel 5. Thanks opening my eyes a bit more

[crowie]

Good posts Was, and others

I had a good first half of last season, from July up to end of December but had a very poor second half, from January to middle of May. Can't explain why but will be looking over my records to see where I was losing most money.

I thought about having a break til new season started but instead started to look at Scandanavian leagues, and focusing on a handful of teams in particular. From end of May til about now the Scandanavian leagues have helped me claw back a lot of the losses from the 2nd half of the season.

At the moment I am looking at the two Swedish leagues, Finnish league and Norway top league, Division 1 and the 4 sections in Div 2.

Why am I doing well on these leagues?

My first thought is that I have less teams and fixtures to look at - and these fixtures are usually spread over a whole week as opposed to being mainly crammed into a Saturday. Therefore you have more time to devote to individual fixtures and teams. Compare with a Saturday where your possibly sometimes giving no more than a glance to 40 fixtures, 80 teams in the top 4 English leagues - before even looking at Scotland and the rest of Europe.

Another reason possibly is that I am not trying to even cover all teams in these leagues. I will have a look at the fixtures but I will be mainly looking at a handful of teams who have shown decent/poor form or have strong over/under trends.

Compare this to Ireland, where you have a small number of teams, some decent information sources and within a couple of weeks you "know" the teams involved - and this can be seen from your profits.


CJ,

Think you have been reading the same book as I have I think the book also said something along the lines of some firms only have one person pricing up all the non league stuff as opposed to a team looking at the leagues such as the EPL which will attract the majority of the bets and money. Therefore more chance for "error" on their part and more chance for us being aware of team news and information they are not.


Was,

You make an interesting point for next season saying you will only follow EPL and CCC games due to the form being more consistant. Do you not feel though that due to the amount of media interest in these leagues, EPL in particular, that its very difficult to get any sort of edge over the bookies either information or stats wise due to the fact that everything about everyone and every teams in these leagues is known. Anyone who spends 15 mins browsing a few football news sites, like AMP says, will know if Henry or Rooney breaks a toe nail as its in the news. Not so the non league part time side who have their star midfielder unavailable due to work commitments.

I know from a quick look at my betting from last season that I probably had my lowest number of bets in the EPL for many a season. Outwith the top 3 I felt anyone could get a result on their day against anyone else but I also felt that more often than not the prices were usually "right" and no one bookie tended to price much outwith the norm.

Personally I enjoy the early rounds of the Intertoto Cup and also the UEFA Cup qualifying rounds. In certain cases, as I mentioned in one of the Intertoto threads, the bookies are really struggling. A couple of examples from the 1st round 1 legs. I was on 2 teams, one at 1.97, one at 1.72, who went off at 1.66 and 1.35 respectively. In the 2nd legs the bookies actually did a lot better with no major price errors or discrepancies.

If you have a fair idea of the teams involved and relative league strengths then you really can find some major discrepancies in bookies prices, especially early ones. Also if you do a bit of digging you can find some great info, such as teams getting buses across two or three countries to games or some sides pitching up with their youth teams for the competition (Olympiakos Nicosia for example - who lost 16-0 on agg).


Overall, like Was says, it pays to be a niche player. Before the new season starts I will be having a look at where I was succesful and where I wasn't and will seriously consider cutting out the unsuccessful leagues full stop. I also know I need to try and stop covering the entire top 4 English league programme every weekend for a start.

Here's to the coming season with a lot of "niche" information from a lot of punters making us all some nice profits

[traeth]

good write up and interesting Crowie

last season was my first season where kept a record of my bets and expenditure.
my season went something like this

August to mid December - betting on all 4 English and some Scottish - in profit.
mid December to early March - more selective , no Scottish , few E.P.L.-small loss
Early March to early June - more selective - in profit.

from November onward was spending a lot of time searching info - mainly stats so I was dissappointed that I was not getting the returns .
From what you boys are saying on this thread I have realised that more time needs to be spent researching team info - so being more specific is the answer with time spent being a factor. I have just bought Joe's book - so will spend time reading that during my hols.

I did try my small stake draw system last season [ based on stats ]- in loss but many times had last minute goals spoiling it ! Will have a think over the next month.

cheers and thanks for planting some seeds for next season

[Keith]

Crowie,

Just a few personal observations of my own which perhaps is no more than food for thought arising from some of the points raised by yourself and AMP.

Bear in mind that one important feature of my strategy in selecting bets is too search out why a team may not perform to their potential. This invariably means analysing team changes through injury or suspension or conversley why a side form may improve when their better players return from such.

Anyway I did post up quite a detailed review of my seasons bets on PL a few months ago. I can't quote now the precise figures but the sample involved over 300 bets and the general conclusions were

a). I made a healthy profit on Premier League, CCC, Champions League and La Liga matches

b) A small profit was returned from CC1 games

c) A definite loss occured in CC2, Carling Cup and LDV games (except for an anti post on Wrexham before the semi)

d) a acceptable (but not large) profit was returned in non league games.


Arising from my research I have came up with some theories


The one thing us punters may find difficult to measure is the commitment of certain teams in the early rounds of the "Mickey Mouse" Cups. Perhaps they are best avoided altogether.

A team in CC2 may have absent 4/5 regulars but because the entire playing staff are mediocre they may not be missed as much as a Premiership side will miss its stars. The lower league fringe players may generally be young and enthusiastic and the opponents who lack real quality may find it more difficult to take advantage. My bets may have failed accordingly because I expected the team with players missing to be weakened but I overestimated the position

Although the world and its wife have information about the teams at the top of the tree we can still seek out value.

This is partly because most bookmakers price up early in the week and we get the best information by Friday evening on the injury front. Get in at that point with your bets as the bookmakers generally only react to the weight of money on Saturday morning

I believe that most sides in the top divisions will miss the better players more so than further down the league. I know some will say that that shouldn't matter because they have bigger squads but I think the real point is that the other teams are better able to take advantage of the absence of the stars

Plus how often have the likes of Newcastle, Liverpool Sunderland West Ham etc been priced up on the basis of past reputation.

[A.M.P]

At the risk of sounding like a perrenial double act I agree with what WAS is saying regarding the pricing up of teams.

With the number of bookmakers on the internet some books are scattered about the "imaginary" equilibrium mark I'd give a team.

Last season Skybet would stick there prices out on a Saturday night and IMO, that's just asking for trouble. I'd alwas try to encourage an "Early value" thread on the PL and I'll be doing the same thing this season here. Ofcourse, it'd be naive to assume that the books don't cross reference but if you're having a large single (or are operating to cut off points) there's a lot of difference between 4/5 and 5/4.

Another fairly interesting thing I noticed last year is that some books (particulary Betfair) had mid-week odds up the prior weekend. So if something drastic happens / is happening in the weekend game - somebody gets sent off/ key player gets injured / somebody is getting a right thrasing then this has yet to be priced into the odds that are available.

Going back to the topic of discussion - niche markets - one of the biggest drawbacks as mentioned earlier is that they'll only be a few bookies offering odds on these matches. Therefore the scope for price discrepencies is limited. However, this is not the case for Prem and CCC games.

Last year Bet 365 must've taken a right hammering on the non-league games because the odds became a lot tighter mid-season.

Oh, and I remember how much WAS likes the LDV and Carling cup competitions :

AMP