Premisership physical teams analysis

[Seen]

Had an idea the other day to look at the performances of each Premiership team when playing the more physical teams, as compared to their results against other teams.

Obviously some teams find it hard to play against 'in-your-face' teams, whereas other teams seem to relish it. If we can find out which teams prefer which opposition, and by how much, then we can surely find plenty of value bets.

The following table shows each teams individual performance versus the top 9 teams in Opta's foul play league, and their performances against other 11 teams.

The teams are listed in current league order. The ppg columns show the average points per game. The 2 columns on the far right hand side - the first one is the difference between the teams performance v physical and non-physical teams (the black positive figures show the team performs better against physical teams, the red negative teams show they perform better against the lesser physical teams) and the end column shows the difference in percentage terms....1.00 would show an identical record v physical and non-physical teams, so Man Utd have a 7% better record v physical teams (1.07) whereas Liverpool perform better against the less physical teams (0.86).




The next table shows the table rearranged in order of the teams who perform best against the physical teams...





Any views or comments appreciated.

[Seen]

The top 9 teams in Opta's foul play league are...

BLACKBURN
BOLTON
WEST HAM
EVERTON
MAN CITY
NEWCASTLE
MIDDLESBORO
FULHAM
WATFORD

It's interesting that 4 of the bottom 5 teams (Watford, Charlton, Wigan and Man City) all perform far better when up against tough teams, but obviously get found out versus the teams who play more football.

No surprise to see Arsenal completely struggle v physical teams, but Newcastle, Sheff Utd and West Ham are perhaps more surprising teams to be found with similar records.

Also interesting to see that Chelsea are well up for a battle - they have gained almost 50% more ppg when versus physical teams than when against lesser aggressive teams.

[keemanan]

Am I missing something seen , where's Blackburn ?

I like the principal mind

[Seen]

good point

2 mins....

[Seen]

[crowie]

Interesting idea Seen.

From first glance it tells us what we already know - Arsenal don't like it up em!

Two things that surprise me about Sheff Utd - 1. They are not in the top 9 fouling teams. Sort of throws of the image of them being a in yer face get stuck in gritty side, and 2. Sheff Utd don't perform too well against these kind of sides.

[trickrick]

Originally Posted by crowie

Two things that surprise me about Sheff Utd - 1. They are not in the top 9 fouling teams. Sort of throws of the image of them being a in yer face get stuck in gritty side, and 2. Sheff Utd don't perform too well against these kind of sides.

Pretty much demonstrates all the idiots generally in the press and people who follow their comments don't know sod all about Sheff Utd, but just like to stereotype a 'Neil Warnock' team as a team who bully and foul the other the team - so far from the truth..

[crowie]

Originally Posted by trickrick

Pretty much demonstrates all the idiots generally in the press and people who follow their comments don't know sod all about Sheff Utd, but just like to stereotype a 'Neil Warnock' team as a team who bully and foul the other the team - so far from the truth..

Thing is Rick, I laid Arsenal at Sheff Utd this season due to my feelings that Utd would get "stuck in" more than Arsenal and would be the sort of team Arsenal wouldn't like playing ie in yer face, not giving them time to settle. And thats exactly how the game turned out if I remember correctly. Arsenal never ever played any decent football in the entire match as Utd never let them settle on the ball and were harrassing them all over the pitch. Even when Jagielka went in goals for 30 mins, Arsenal still couldn't muster anything resembling decent football as Utd, IMO, wanted it more. Utd maybe didn't foul them all over pitch but they certainly "bullied" them out of their normal game.

[trickrick]

True Crowie - I probably didnt word it right. United certainly like to get 'in their faces' but they definately don't kick the shit out of teams. I'd go as far as to say they play some nice football at times !!

[Seen]

Just a few points to add...

The reason why 14 teams have better ppg stats against the more physical teams is basically because the 9 highest teams in the Opta foul play league mostly occupy places in the lower half of the table. The table below shows their current position (most physical teams in pink)....



As you can see, only 1 of the top 7 teams in in the 'physical' group and this explains the lop-sided positive/negative percentages in the final column.

The average ppg v physical teams is 1.53, whereas the average v non-physical teams is just 1.28. So the mean difference in percentage terms is 1.20.....so all teams below this (EVERTON downwards in the rearranged table, where WATFORD are top) should theoretically be opposed when up against the physical (pink) teams and those above it (BLACKBURN and above) should be followed. If the odds for these games are compiled using league standing and current form then value will be had using these stats.

I'll run a hypothetical betting bank of £1000 trying to take advantage of this.

2 games on Wed night, EVERTON v SPURS and WATFORD v WIGAN.....will want to be against SPURS and WATFORD.

[Quandram]

Just wondering Seen if you've done a Home Vs Away breakdown for this?

Do the more physical teams go in harder away to keep a clean sheet?

Some of those listed are (theoritcally anyway) capable of playing decent football when at home and maybe they don't resort to as much niggle?

[Seen]

Just wondering Seen if you've done a Home Vs Away breakdown for this?

No I haven't, Quandrum - I think the main problem would be the lack of sample size. With probably only 6 max games to go off for home games and the same for away games it wouldn't be too reliable.

I originally intended using only the top 4 or 5 teams in the foul play league but again the small sample size made me incorporate more teams into it.

I actually should have used the 'fouls' score from the opta index as the yellow and red cards cause some teams to have higher scores than others who commit more fouls. Many yellow cards are given for dissent or time-wasting and the like, so this kinda skews the stats a bit. The only change would be Aston Villa in there in place of Newcastle, and possibly Portsmouth replacing Boro.

I would imagine if a team is in-your-face like Blackburn, they are going to be like that at home or away, although I do agree to some extent that they may be more physical in away games.

It's not an exact science, never can be, but at least gives an indication of how each team copes with teams which foul frequently. The stats for Chelsea suggest that if you try and get at them physically they'll beat you, and the better chance of hampering them is playing football.

I'm currently working on the 3 other English divisions so hopefully it'll throw up interesting stats.