OVER 300 % PROFIT IN 2 MONTH

[nogoal]

BET 9



INITIAL BANK: 300,01

DATE/UK TIME: 17Jul05 – 11:00h

MATCH: Peace Cup – Lyon 2 (40, 52 min) Seongnam Ilhwa (57 min)

ADDED TIME: 3 min

BET MINUTE: 86 min

BET ODD: 1,34

REAL ODD*: 1,32

STAKE: 35

RESULT: WIN



NEW BANK: 311,32





Comments: Other friendly game… it was a pity the other Peace Cup match wasn’t In-Play game (PSV 0 vs Once Caldas 0)





NEXT IN-PLAY GAMES:



17Jul05
16h: Malmo FF v Halmstads (maybe I’ll not play this one, I’ll not be at home)
20h: Benfica v Chelsea

18Jul05
11h: Boca Juniors v Sociedad
11h: Tottenham v Sundowns
17h: France U19 v England U19
19h: Serbia & M U19 v Germany U19

[nogoal]

This are the stats that support my strategy..

Gamebookers Stats:

Championship 2004/2005



1st column: Goals/Game
2nd column: Goal % from 80 minutes


1 England 2,57 11,5%

2 France 2,15 13,3%

3 Spain 2,59 13,1%

4 Italy 2,53 11,9%

5 Denmark 2,89 15,9%

6 Germany 2,90 14,0%

7 Netherlands 3,09 14,3%

8 Scotland 2,64 12,3%

9 Portugal 2,31 13,7%

10 Greece 2,30 9,8%

11 Belgium 2,75 12,8%

12 Austria 2,61 12,0%

13 Turkey 2,92 14,4%

14 Sweden 2,54 11,30%

15 Norway 2,75 14,20%


Average 2,64 13,0%



If 13% of the goals are scored from 80 minute:

2,64 goals/game x 13% = 0,34 goals/game from 80 minute.

Probability to score one goal from 80 min: 34,2 %

I admit from 80 minutes the probability to score one goal in any minute is the same, so:
Probability to score one goal from 85 min: 0,342 x 8/13 = 21,0 %

So, I play defence, and I admit there is 1 goal in each 4 games after 85 minutes (25%)
The respective odd is 1,33 [1/(4–1) = 0,33]

Example:
GAME1: 10 x 1,33 WIN = 3,33 profit
GAME2: 10 x 1,33 WIN = 3,33 profit
GAME3: 10 x 1,33 WIN = 3,33 profit
GAME4: 10 x 1,33 LOST = -10 profit

TOTAL PROFIT = 0


I have to take account that Betfair takes a 5% commission on every profit winnings. So a odd of 1,33 (33% profit) is a real odd of 1,31 (33% profit X 95% = 31% profit)

So I think 1,36 is a good BetFair odd to bet from 85 minutes in No Goal
(36% profit X 95% = 34% profit)

[nogoal]

I think last post replies to MR ONEMORE

Originally Posted by aliensyndm

Are you looking at this purely on maths ? As in if I get X odds at Y minutes I will take it or do you consider course of the game....open game, defensive game, slow pace etc as well ? I must admit to not being a fan of low odds, I'd much rather be laying than backing, but value is value. If it should be 1.10 and you're getting 1.18 fair enough. Is comission all calculated in as well ?

Usually if the odds are bellow the indicative values I showed on first post I think is better not to risk.. Anyway friendly games, teams more defensive, could be an exception..
Statistics says one in each four games there is one goal after 85 minutes.. so in 100games there were 25 I lost... but if the 75 I won I had good odds I will have a large profit..

Bet Fair comission is alway 5% over your profits.. but the more you bet the booker will give you discounts and the comission can decrease until 4 or 3%..

If you are not yet registered in Bet Fair you can get a bonus subscription bonus. When you fill the form enter in the “Refer and Earn” camp the following code: . After a 30€ /20£first deposit you will get another 30€ bonus in your BetFair account and also me will get 30€ bonus.With 30€ you get 60€ (in one or maximum two weeks the bonus will be available).

New users registering with your code earn 30€ bonus after first 30€ deposit and you earn other 30€.


Greetings,

Felisberto

[nogoal]

It was a pity I didn’t play in the afternoon match Malmo 2 (8, 52 min) vs Halmstad (46 min)… I could have won 12 – 15 units more… Anyway, betting should be something like an hobby, not an obsession..





BET 10



INITIAL BANK: 311,32

DATE/UK TIME: 17Jul05 – 20:15h

MATCH: Friendly – Benfica 0 vs Chelsea 1 (43 min)

ADDED TIME: 4 min

BET MINUTE: 85 min

BET ODD: 1,38

REAL ODD*: 1,36

STAKE: 35

RESULT: WIN

PROFIT: 12,64



NEW BANK: 323,56



NEXT IN-PLAY GAMES:



18Jul05
11h: Boca Juniors v Sociedad
11h: Tottenham v Sundowns
17h: France U19 v England U19
19h: Serbia & M U19 v Germany U19 (I think I will only play this last one cause I will be working in afternoon..)

[traeth]

going well nogoal - the France v England came up trumps , lets hope the S&M v Germany is as profitable - in the first game the draw suited both teams the same for the ongoing one of S&M V Germany now in play -just started

[traeth]

it is now 2-2 after S&M came back from 2-0 down in just over 2 minutes - goals coming from everywhere -is it worth a punt in the final minutes?

[nogoal]

Afternoon games which I didn’t bet:



11h: Boca Juniors 0 vs Sociedad 0
11h: Tottenham 3 (3, 51, 57 min) vs Sundowns 1 (77min)
17h: France U19 1 (18min) vs England U19 1 (9min)

18h: Djurgardens 4 (1, 46, 68, 89min) vs Sundsvall 0

BET 11



INITIAL BANK: 311,32

DATE/UK TIME: 18Jul05 – 19h

MATCH: Serbia & M 4 (57, 59, 75, 92min) vs Germany 2 (38, 51min)

ADDED TIME: 3 min

BET MINUTE: 85 min

BET ODD: 1,43

REAL ODD*: 1,41

STAKE: 35

RESULT: WIN

PROFIT: -35

NEW BANK: 288,56



Comments: No luck… I think friendly games are working better than official ones..



NEXT IN-PLAY GAMES:



19Jul05
20h: TNS v Liverpool

[nogoal]

Hello everyone!

Sorry for my absence, I was a bit busy this days..

I will post my last bets..



These days there were other games without goals in the last minutes I didn’t bet..

European Under 19: Northern Ireland 0 vs Serbia & Montenegro 1, very low odds..

I think in all Peace Cup matches there weren’t goals in the end.. Anyway the match’s time wasn’t the best (11h)





BET 12



INITIAL BANK: 288,56

DATE/UK TIME: 19Jul05 – 20h

MATCH: TNS 0 v Liverpool 3 (26, 85, 86min)

BET MINUTE: 85 min

STAKE: 35

RESULT: LOST

PROFIT: -35



NEW BANK: 253,56







BET 13



INITIAL BANK: 253,56

DATE/UK TIME: 19Jul05 – 20h

MATCH: TNS 0 v Liverpool 3 (26, 85, 86min)

BET MINUTE: 88 min

BET ODD: 1,30

REAL ODD*: 1,28

STAKE: 35

RESULT: WIN

PROFIT: +9,98



NEW BANK: 263,54



************************************************** *





BET 14



INITIAL BANK: 263,54

DATE/UK TIME: 20Jul05 – 17h

MATCH: European Under 19: Greece 0 vs Germany 3 (16, 43, 46min)

ADDED TIME: 4 min

BET MINUTE: 85 min

BET ODD: 1,51

REAL ODD*: 1,48

STAKE: 35

RESULT: WIN

PROFIT: +16,96



NEW BANK: 280,50



************************************************** *





BET 15



INITIAL BANK: 263,54

DATE/UK TIME: 20Jul05 – 18h

MATCH: IFK Goteborg 0 vs Gefle 1 (16 min)

ADDED TIME: 4 min

BET MINUTE: 85 min

BET ODD: 1,43

REAL ODD*: 1,41

STAKE: 35

RESULT: WIN

PROFIT: +14,30



NEW BANK: 294,80





************************************************** *





BET 16



INITIAL BANK: 263,54

DATE/UK TIME: 20Jul05 – 20h

MATCH: European Under 19: France 3 (16, 29, 83min) vs Norway 1 (55 min)

ADDED TIME: 2 min

BET MINUTE: 89 min

BET ODD: 1,18

REAL ODD*: 1,17

STAKE: 35

RESULT: WIN

PROFIT: +5,99



NEW BANK: 300,79



************************************************** *





BET 17



INITIAL BANK: 300,79

DATE/UK TIME: 21Jul05 – 19h

MATCH: Hacken 1 (84min) vs Malmo FF 0

ADDED TIME: 4 min

BET MINUTE: 89 min

BET ODD: 1,20

REAL ODD*: 1,19

STAKE: 35

RESULT: WIN

PROFIT: +6,65



NEW BANK: 307,44



************************************************** *





BET 18



INITIAL BANK: 307,44

DATE/UK TIME: 23Jul05 – 11:45h

MATCH: Everton 1 (52 min) vs Manchester City 1(25 min)

ADDED TIME: 3 min

BET MINUTE: 90 min

BET ODD: 1,13

REAL ODD*: 1,12

STAKE: 35

RESULT: WIN

PROFIT: +4,32



NEW BANK: 311,76



************************************************** *





BET 19



INITIAL BANK: 311,76

DATE/UK TIME: 23Jul05 – 14:30h

MATCH: Werder Bremen 1 (19 min) vs B. Leverkusen 0

ADDED TIME: 3 min

BET MINUTE: 85 min

BET ODD: 1,42

REAL ODD*: 1,40

STAKE: 35

RESULT: WIN

PROFIT: +13,97



NEW BANK: 325,73



************************************************** *





BET 20



INITIAL BANK: 325,73

DATE/UK TIME: 23Jul05 – 15h

MATCH: Thailand 0 vs Bolton 1 (79 min)

BET MINUTE: 85 min

BET ODD: 1,42

REAL ODD*: 1,40

STAKE: 35

RESULT: WIN

PROFIT: +13,97



NEW BANK: 339,70



************************************************** *





BET 21



INITIAL BANK: 339,70

DATE/UK TIME: 23Jul05 – 19h

MATCH: Olympiakos 3 vs Liverpool 4 (can’t find goals exact time)

BET MINUTE: 88 min

BET ODD: 1,27

REAL ODD*: 1,26

STAKE: 35

RESULT: WIN

PROFIT: +9,10



NEW BANK: 348,80



************************************************** *





BET 22



INITIAL BANK: 339,70

DATE/UK TIME: 23Jul05 – 19h

MATCH: European Under 19: England 3 (4, 81, 84 min) vs Norway 2 (23, 79 min)

BET MINUTE: 86 min

BET ODD: 1,40

REAL ODD*: 1,38

STAKE: 35

RESULT: WIN

PROFIT: +13,30



NEW BANK: 362,10







Today games:



24JUL:



16h: Sundsvall vs Helsingborgs

17h: Fredrikstad vs Lyn

19:15h: Aalesund vs Rosenborg



I will only play in the Rosenborg game, I will not be at home during afternoon. Anyway I think Norwegian championship is not good for this kind of betting, they have a lot of goals in the last minutes, I had already bad experiences… maybe I will bet only at 90min or something like that..



Greetings

[kompressaur]

I reckon you'd do ok in the scots 1-2-3 with that Nogoal if you can get odds. I dont know the stats on it but seems high to me especially division 3

[nogoal]

BET 23



INITIAL BANK: 362,10

DATE/UK TIME: 24Jul05 – 19:15h

MATCH: Aalesund 2 (4, 52 min) vs Rosenborg 1 (40 min)

BET MINUTE: 86 min

BET ODD: 1,43

REAL ODD*: 1,41

STAKE: 35

RESULT: WIN

PROFIT: +14,30



NEW BANK: 376,40



************************************************** *



BET 24



INITIAL BANK: 376,40

DATE/UK TIME: 26Jul05 – 19:30h

MATCH: B. Munich 1 (19 min) vs Stuttgart 2 (21, 91min)

BET MINUTE: 85 min

BET ODD: 1,52

REAL ODD*: 1,49

STAKE: 35

RESULT: LOST

PROFIT: -35



NEW BANK: 341,40



************************************************** *



BET 25



INITIAL BANK: 341,40

DATE/UK TIME: 26Jul05 – 19:30h

MATCH: European Under 19: France 3 (23, 58, 63 min) vs Germany 2 (40, 85 min)

BET MINUTE: 85 min

BET ODD: 1,60

REAL ODD*: 1,57

STAKE: 35

RESULT: LOST

PROFIT: -35



NEW BANK: 306,40





************************************************** *



BET 26



INITIAL BANK: 306,40

DATE/UK TIME: 26Jul05 – 19:30h

MATCH: European Under 19: France 3 (23, 58, 63 min) vs Germany 2 (40, 85 min)

BET MINUTE: 87 min

BET ODD: 1,31

REAL ODD*: 1,29

STAKE: 35

RESULT: WIN

PROFIT: +10,31



NEW BANK: 316,71



************************************************** *



BET 27



INITIAL BANK: 316,71

DATE/UK TIME: 26Jul05 – 19:45h

MATCH: Champions League: Kaunas 1 (21min) vs Liverpool 3 (27, 30, 54 min)

BET MINUTE: 85 min

BET ODD: 1,49

REAL ODD*: 1,47

STAKE: 35

RESULT: WIN

PROFIT: +16,29



NEW BANK: 333,00



************************************************** *



BET 28



INITIAL BANK: 333,00

DATE/UK TIME: 27Jul05 – 19 h

MATCH: Uefa Cup: Malmo FF 3 (34, 49, 68 min) vs Maccabi Haifa 2 (2, 45 min)

BET MINUTE: 85 min

BET ODD: 1,50

REAL ODD*: 1,48

STAKE: 35

RESULT: WIN

PROFIT: +16,63



NEW BANK: 349,63



************************************************** *



BET 29



INITIAL BANK: 349,63

DATE/UK TIME: 27Jul05 – 19:30 h

MATCH: Uefa Cup: Shalke 2 (34, 71 min) vs W Bremen 1 (91 min)

BET MINUTE: 85 min

BET ODD: 1,58

REAL ODD*: 1,55

STAKE: 35

RESULT: LOST

PROFIT: -35



NEW BANK: 314,63



************************************************** *



BET 30



INITIAL BANK: 314,63

DATE/UK TIME: 27Jul05 – 20h

MATCH: Uefa Cup: Deportivo 2 (11, 58 min) vs Newcastle 1 (47 min)

BET MINUTE: 85 min

BET ODD: 1,38

REAL ODD*: 1,36

STAKE: 35

RESULT: WIN

PROFIT: +12,64



NEW BANK: 327,27



************************************************** *



BET 31



INITIAL BANK: 327,27

DATE/UK TIME: 28Jul05 – 19h

MATCH: Halmstads 0 vs Goteburg 2 (32, 54 min)

BET MINUTE: 85 min

BET ODD: 1,58

REAL ODD*: 1,55

STAKE: 35

RESULT: WIN

PROFIT: +19,29



NEW BANK: 346,56



************************************************** *



BET 32



INITIAL BANK: 346,56

DATE/UK TIME: 28Jul05 – 20h

MATCH: Women European Under 19: France 1 vs Finland 0

BET MINUTE: 86 min

BET ODD: 1,36

REAL ODD*: 1,34

STAKE: 35

RESULT: WIN

PROFIT: +11,97



NEW BANK: 358,53