Swoopers International Surgery, System & Stats......

[Swooperman]

Fair points, Zonk....its all in the eye of the beholder I guess I'm quite happy with the bets I've taken so as you say, we'll see.
I always think that if I've thought it through & not rushed into a decision on a bet, then I'm happy, if it goes wrong then so be it, but as long as I'm happy with the theory, then I'm happy. The only one I've got doubts on tbh is Warne, I actually thought McGraths quote would be higher, to my mind the bookies are saying that they're not convinced he's not past it......

Time will tell. I dont mind this turning into a bit of a discussion tbh, more the merrier, & if your right & they all go down I'll delete the entire thread before the end of the series

If you dont agree so far, I dread to think what you'll make of the others

PC, good to see you, mate...what a pleasant surprise hope you stick around

[zonker84]

Well I might as well add, that I thought the Warne bet was the best of the three Dear me, it would worry me if we totally agreed any time.

Still no bets for me on this, will start to make a decision or two tomorrow

[Swooperman]

You did have me doubting myself tbh Zonk...then I looked at your VBookie balance & I breathed a sigh of relief only joking mate, good banter...I'm sure you'll be reminding me when McGrath has 6-346 after 3 tests

dont sink to that Zonk, that as lower than the Titanic......

[zonker84]

I'm just really thankful I didn't put any real money on that Sri Lanka first innings lead

Believe it or not, when it comes to real betting, I don't stick all my money on one bet and hope it wins Actually placed very few cricket bets this season so far when I come to think of it. Should be a good series regardless of the betting though

[Swooperman]

Total Runs
England vs Australia - (Test Series) - DR Martyn Book Closes 21 Jul-10:01
Players must start in at least 2 matches.
Add Under 365 1/1 Bet
Add 365 & Over 8/11 Bet

England vs Australia - (Test Series) - JL Langer Book Closes 21 Jul-10:01
Players must start in at least 2 matches.
Add Under 405 5/6 Bet
Add 405 & Over 5/6 Bet

England vs Australia - (Test Series) - ML Hayden Book Closes 21 Jul-10:01
Players must start in at least 2 matches.
Add Under 405 4/5 Bet
Add 405 & Over 10/11 Bet

England vs Australia - (Test Series) - RT Ponting Book Closes 21 Jul-10:01
Players must start in at least 2 matches.
Add Under 430 5/6 Bet
Add 430 & Over 5/6 Bet

Very interested in Hayden tbh.......very interested indeed !!

Was thinking along these lines before but I've read an interview with him on Cricinfo & he sounds a little strange to me....worried maybe.

Overall tests: 67 matches, 117 inns, 10 NO's, 5721 runs, hs380, avg.53.46, 20x100, 20x50, 7x0

v England: 10 matches, 16 inns, 1 NO, 730 runs, 197hs, avg.48.66, 3x100, 1x50, 1x0

in England: 5 matches, 8 inns, 1 NO, 234 runs, 68hs, avg.33.42, 1x50, 1x0

Tests in last 18 months: 18 matches, 34 inns, 2 NO's, 1330 runs, 132hs, avg.41.56, 3x100, 6x50, 0x0

Last 10 matches: 18 inns, 2 NO's, 509 runs, hs70, avg.31.81, 4x50

Last 4 series averages:

in India 2004: 30.5
NZ in Aus 2004: 44.0
Pak in Aus 2004/5: 32.0
in NZ 2005: 31.6

Run of scores from ODIs on this tour: 37,31,39,66*,14,1,17,17,31

I've felt he's been on the wane for a while, but thats my opinion, but the stats do back me up tbh. He has a superb career average (although that 380 v Zimbabwe helped ) but as the stats show it has been falling for the last 18 months, & in the last 10 matches has hit low 30's.
The last tour was in New Zealand which can be tricky but the team scores werent bad, the previous 2 series were in Australia so no excuses there, but I suppose I'll give him an excuse in India 'cos that can be a bit tough

It may be a bit premature to says he's shot, to say the least, but the stats arent as good as they were & that can't be denied. He's always been an ultra attacking player but very jerky movement wise, almost robotic in fact. What I'm trying to say is that Hayden doesnt flow freely at the crease, he is blood & thunder & looks to dominate from the word go....in fact I'd go as far to say he's a bully.
His 2001 Ashes tour wasnt a personal success, only 1x50 & a 33.42 average, & he'll want to improve that. He averages 61 in Australia, 63 in West Indies & 61 in India, not so good in England & NZ, the more workmanlike wickets (although granted Indias a top effort ).
I just feel that something is not quite right with him, maybe hes not keeping his head as still as he was, or not moving early enough or something like that...I just think that batsmen like him (robotic) fade quicker than natural style players, as he has to compensate more with the eye & early movement.
England IMO have one of the best attacks in the world & I dont see Hayden scoring a stack tbh, which brings us to his quote by Bet365, of 405, & I really dont think hes going to get even close...heres hoping

BET S1:4 MATT HATDEN TO SCORE UNDER 405 RUNS @ 4/5. 20PNTS STAKED

[Squiddly Diddly]

Great write up Swooperman.

I haven't sorted out the specials yet - I try to limit them but get carried away with the whole Ashes thing.

I certainly think Hayden is an "under". Interestingly in the one dayers, Gilchrist goes off like a train and Hayden is supposed to anchor things although Hayden seems to be going first. I don't think he is shot either but certainly past his best.

Agree on McGrath too: he is reliable and consistent and looks good for the "over". Lee is less consistent and more prone to injury and I'm not sure where all the other wickets are coming from.

After seeing Warney at Middlesex the other day, I'd take the "under"; he's not got the spin he used to have and I think he's spent too long with the county sides who have sussed him out to a certain degree. The off-field situation can't help matters (good hatchet job by Her Majesties Press there) and his popularity in his native country is at it's lowest since before he got Gatts wicket at Old Trafford 12 years ago.

Not sure about Flintoff but a Strauss "under" would be interesting. I like Martyn at "over 365" at funnily enough Bet365 and will be looking at getting after Clarke in some of the "under" markets around. In his last seven completed tests he's averaging 17.28 - 83 runs from 4 innings against Pakistan, 38 runs from 3 innings against the Kiwis.

Good luck with your picks Swooperman.

[Swooperman]

I was looking to get into Clarke unders as well, Squiddly, but I havent found anywhere yet. I really do think Haydens struggling although the 75 he scored v Leics will have helped him, but i think England can get under his skin tbh. I've mentioned before that he is disliked by the England players over his 'holier-than-thou' attitude & his deep religious beliefs....when it suits him, & the Jones throwing incident cant have helped. I'm tempted by Langers over 405, & Bet365 did have a quote of 365 on Tresco which I was going under on but its disappeared, as has Strauss's 385.

[Swooperman]

Lowest 1st Innings Score (Team)Ashes 2005 21 Jul 10:00 Selection Price
Under 175 13/8
175-200 Inc 6/4
Over 200 2/1

Now I'll admit this looks strange & I'm expecting Zonker to come on here laughing tbh but I can see a couple of low scores in this series tbh. I'm particularly thinking of the first 3 tests @ Lords, Edgbaston & Old Trafford, although no test at Headingley is a shame for this.
My theory is that both teams have too good a bowling attack to not make inroads at some point in the series & get on a roll, & I really dont see this being a series massed full of runs. I think it'll be relatively high scoring but not massively so, History says it happens in both directions as well, not just England struggling as people would think.

First Innings Scores:

2001
294 & 576 Edgbaston
187 & 401 Lords
185 & 190 Trent Bridge
447 & 309 Headingley
641 & 432 Oval

1997
118 & 478 Edgbaston
77 & 213 Lords
235 & 162 Old Trafford
172 & 501 Headingley
427 & 313 Trent Bridge
180 & 220 Oval

1993
289 & 210 Old Trafford
632 & 205 Lords
321 & 373 Trent Bridge
653 & 200 Headingley
276 & 408 Edgbaston
380 & 303 Oval


I'm seriously thinking of backing under 175 & 175-200 with smallish stakes. Will ponder, think it looks good but more thought needed

[Swooperman]

Match and Series Double
England vs Australia - (Test Series)- 1st Test Book Closes 21 Jul-10:02

Add England to win and WIN series 15/2 Bet
Add England to win and LOSE series 9/1 Bet
Add England to win and series DRAW 18/1 Bet
Add Australia to win and WIN series 11/10 Bet
Add Australia to win and LOSE series 20/1 Bet
Add Australia to win and series DRAW 18/1 Bet
Add Draw and England to win series 12/1 Bet
Add Draw and Australia to win series 3/1 Bet
Add Draw and series draw 14/1 Bet

Now this looks interesting......England to win the 1st test & lose the series @ 9/1...hmmm........England win & draw @ 18/1.
Think there'll be a result @ Lords tbh, weather permitting, so wouldnt go for a draw there.
Australia win & drawn series @ 18/1....decisions, decisions.....I'll definetly have a go at this I think.

Still fcuked off I cant go under on Tresco atm......

[zonker84]

Glenn McGrath's 500th wicket

TRESCOTHICK, Marcus (England) 3.25
STRAUSS, Andrew (England) 3.50
VAUGHAN, Michael (England) 4.50
BELL, Ian (England) 7.00
PIETERSEN, Kevin (England) 9.00
FLINTOFF, Andrew (England) 13.00
JONES, Geraint (England) 21.00
BATTY, Gareth (England) 34.00
JONES, Simon (England) 41.00
HOGGARD, Matthew (England) 51.00
HARMISON, Stephen (England) 67.00
GLENN McGRATH WILL NOT TAKE A WICKET IN THE TEST SERIES 21.00


I think they're being pretty generous on the lower order players from G. Jones down. What if he doesn't take a wicket in his first spell? Certainly worth a look for small stakes maybe

[Swooperman]

How about Hoggard as a night watchman approaching the end of the days play ?? @ 50/1 !! Reckon that might be worth a go if the Aussies bat first...in fact Ive convinced myself with that tbh

I'd want more than 20/1 he doesnt take a wicket in the series

[zonker84]

Yeah me too. Those odds are from Centrebet by the way. A couple of other bookmakers are offering this market, but with much lower odds for the lower-order batsmen

[Swooperman]

Hoggy 33/1 @ Bet365 same as the rest of the tail. I do think thats value though as hes generally the night watchman so he should surely be shorter than the rest of the bowlers.
Hey, Zonk...you heard that Warneys been calling Pietersen '600' all summer.....now thats psychology

[Pie-chucker]

All wonderfully 'exotic', guys! But what about Centrebet's 5.00 (or the Betfair 5.3) about England winning the first test? Think we can boot the draw into touch, so two-horse race.

I'm not put-off by the gloomy Ashes stats for England at Lords.

9-1 for England WIN and then LOSE series is good also. Hope weather forecast holds up for 24 hours (seems good) and odds hold for that time at which time I'll be jumping in. There is no reason England cannot give this a good go.

[Swooperman]

I really dont think they should be as far apart as they are, so I have to think England are value. I havent looked at the weather as yet as I've been looking at all the series stuff, but I'm definetly thinking of laying the draw, aiming to make more profit on England. I can see a relatively low scoring affair (350 tops ish) at first glance but dont ask me to back that up.....