Swoopers International Surgery, System & Stats......

[Pie-chucker]

Micky Hunt is preparing a lively strip at Lords, I understand. This is not rocket science, but goes with the home team pace attack. If they can put it in the spots to rattle the Aussies. Lifting off a length.

Win toss = bat. But if Vaughan loses toss, no reason to panic. This England team could thrive by getting out together on the pitch, first morning. It is quite simply down to Harmison, early.

The odds differential on the first test is daft.

(yes, the Lords groundsman calls himself Micky, not Mike, for a reason.)

[Swooperman]

Bet365 have put the England batsmen back in thr runs spread, but Tresco has gone down

Batsman Total Runs
England vs Australia - (Test Series) - AJ Strauss Book Closes 21 Jul-10:00
Players must start in at least 2 matches.
Add Under 345 5/6 Bet
Add 345 & Over 5/6 Bet

England vs Australia - (Test Series) - DR Martyn Book Closes 21 Jul-10:01
Players must start in at least 2 matches.
Add Under 365 1/1 Bet
Add 365 & Over 8/11 Bet

England vs Australia - (Test Series) - JL Langer Book Closes 21 Jul-10:01
Players must start in at least 2 matches.
Add Under 405 5/6 Bet
Add 405 & Over 5/6 Bet

England vs Australia - (Test Series) - ME Trescothick Book Closes 21 Jul-10:00
Players must start in at least 2 matches.
Add Under 340 5/6 Bet
Add 340 & Over 5/6 Bet

England vs Australia - (Test Series) - ML Hayden Book Closes 21 Jul-10:01
Players must start in at least 2 matches.
Add Under 405 4/5 Bet
Add 405 & Over 10/11 Bet

England vs Australia - (Test Series) - MP Vaughan Book Closes 21 Jul-10:00
Players must start in at least 2 matches.
Add Under 350 5/6 Bet
Add 350 & Over 5/6 Bet

England vs Australia - (Test Series) - RT Ponting Book Closes 21 Jul-10:01
Players must start in at least 2 matches.
Add Under 430 5/6 Bet
Add 430 & Over 5/6 Bet

Langer at over 405 interests me, but only small stakes tbh. Hes in the form of his life the last couple of years, but has only played 1 test in England, @ The Oval, when Slater was finally dropped on the last tour.

Overall Tests: 88 matches, 150 inns, 6607 runs, hs 250, avg.46.52, 21x100, 3x200, 26x50, 9x0

v England: 11 matches, 19 inns, 961 runs, hs250, avg.56.52, 3x100, 2x50

in England: 1 match, 1 inns, 1 NO, hs102*, avg. infinity......

His 250 v England is the highest score by a Western Australian.

Since 2000, he has played59 tests in which he has scored 16 of his tons. He has averaged over 50 in each year since 2000 bar 2003.
In 2004 he scored 1481 test runs, including the small matter of 5 tons

Having only played 1 test in England @ The Oval in 2001, the fire still burns even @ 34. There seems to be something about Lords which raises the visitors, which is why England have only beaten the Aussies there once in a century, & not since 1934.......The honours board @ Lords is a big pull on the opposition & I expect Langer to get a good start tbh. Small stakes as I say because its a fair few runs, but....

BET S1:5 JUSTIN LANGER TO SCORE 405 RUNS OR MORE @ 5/6. 6PNTS STAKED


The quote on Trescothick has been dropped from 365 to 340, so Bet365 have obviously been hit on this, but I think Tresco will struggle unless McGrath really has lost it. Trescos stats:

Overall: 61 matches, 115 inns, 10 NO's, 4775 runs, hs219, avg.45.47, 12x100, 24x50, 9x0

v Australia: 10 matches, 20 inns, 582 runs, hs76, avg.29.1, 4x50, 2x0

in England overall: 30 matches, 53 inns, 7 NO's, 2718 runs, hs219, avg.59.08, 8x100, 15x50, 3x0

In Australia 2002/3: avg.26.1, hs72

In England v Australia 2001: avg.32.1, hs76

Always known as a bit of a home batsman, Tresco has always struggled against the Aussies, but so have many others tbh. He scored his only ton against them in the recent ODI's & how important could that be ??
Gillespie has dismissed him 7 times in tests inc.4 caught behind. McGrath has had him 4 times & Warne 3. How he copes with Gillespie could well be key as it may force Gillespie out of the team.
I can only see him getting going about 3 times uin the series tbh, so I'm happy to take on 340...but its a bet I'd be happy to lose tbh

BET S1:6 TRESCOTHICK TO SCORE UNDER 340 RUNS @ 5/6. 6PNTS STAKED

[Swooperman]

Right, I've finally made up my mind on the 'pondering' bets from earlier:

BET S1:7 GILCHRIST 570PNTS OR OVER @ 5/6. 12PNTS STAKED
Decided its worth it, I think he'll get the knocks to do it & he's a special player

BET S1:8 LOWEST 1ST INNINGS SCORE (EITHER SIDE) 175-200 @ 6/4. 5PNTS STAKED. Plumped for the middle one, reckon under 175 was just too low

BET S1:9 AUSTRALIA TO WIN 1ST TEST & LOSE SERIES @ 20/1. 3PNTS STAKED
BET S1:10 ENGLAND TO WIN 1ST TEST & LOSE SERIES @ 9/1. 3PNTS

BET S1:11 AUSTRALIA TO WIN 1ST TEST & DRAW SERIES @ 18/1. 3PNTS

BET S1:12 ENGLAND TO WIN 1ST TEST & DRAW SERIES @ 18/1. 3PNTS

BET S1:13 LANGER TOP SERIES RUNS (EITHER SIDE) @ 6/1. 3PNTS

BET S1:14 DRAWN SERIES @ 7.25. 5PNTS (CENTREBET)

BET S1:15 HOGGARD 500TH MCGRATH WICKET @ 51.00. 1PNT (CENTREBET)

More than I intended tbh but hey....its the Ashes ffs

Most of them have been mentioned somewhere in the thread. Hoggard being the 500th relies on the Aussies batting first & england losing their 1st or possibly their 2nd wicket just before an interval & Hoggy being the nightwatchman....but what do you expect for 50/1
Went off betting on Vaughan, decided I didnt have an unbiased view on him as I feel he has to bat well for England to stand up. Giles 's spread was too unpredictable too, hes got a lot of character & may have a big part to play, but to be tempted to go over I'd want more than 5/6. Harmy too I didnt feel I had unbiased opinion so I left it alone.

The only other one I might get tempted on is Ponting under 430....just seems a lot of runs to me tbh.......

On to the tests......

[Beanie]

Good effort Swooper - I didn't read through all the stats and such but you've typed a lot so it must be good

For a tv event like this all I'm looking for is a bet or two from someone in the know, just as a nice extra dimension as I kick back with a nice cold beer(if I'm being truthful it's a cider and blackcurrant ) in the pub.

Anything you fancy for just the First Test? Just a couple of quick fancies would be sooper - and I wouldn't bother with any reasoning cos I wont read it.

[Pie-chucker]

Beanie, for a 'pub' bet I'd suggest split stakes between

Flintoff 12-1
McGrath 10-1

for Man of the Match at Ladbrokes

This should give you an extended interest over the match. Hope this tops up the cider fund.

[Beanie]

I like it PC - although you'll have my little brain tying itself in knots when McGrath is charging up to Flintoff.

[Pie-chucker]

That's easy! We want Freddie to hit him into St John's Wood Road as he scores 165 as McGrath picks up 7 wickets around him. Piece of cake, mate.

[Swooperman]

Right onto the tests:

Lords 1st Test

I've put a big write up & loads of stats in Other Sports, but I'll deal with it briefly here.
I think its too close to call, & although England are on the slide tonight I think the sides are too far apart in the betting, I dont think previous stats matter as much as usual tbh, but we'll see.
Vaughan has turned down Pontings 'catch amnesty' approach regarding taking the fielders word as done. Nice idea but it does smack of 'holier than thou', but ignore the details, it shows that England will be no push overs & is a statement of intent as much as anything.
Lords is a ground that they tend to look up when theyve won the toss, not down, ie the weather is crucial. Looking on the BBC they say sun thursday, sun & cloud friday, showers saturday & heavier rain sunday. I'm still laying the draw tbh as I wouldnt be at all surprised for somebody to go cheaply here.....

Match bets taken so far:

BET T1:1 AUSTRALIA WIN @ 28/25 (Gamebookers 1 week ago) 20PNTS

BET T1:2 ENGLAND WIN @ 4/1 STAN JAMES 10PNTS

BET T1:3 LANGER TOP AUSSIE 1ST INNINGS BATSMAN @ 4/1. STAN JAMES 3PNTS

[Swooperman]

Still tempted on Ponting tbh, but I must resist......

[Beanie]

Who are you liking for England's top swisher with the bat Swoops? Strauss at 5s?

[Swooperman]

Dunno tbh, I've kept clear of that one.......Vaughan averages 60-odd against them, reckon he looks goods. 5 tons @ Lords as well......

[Pie-chucker]

Does anyone agree it's about time the Ashes went to Aus (physically)... if of course the blighters hang on to them?

[Swooperman]

97-5 at lunch Australia afterwinning the toss. Better than anyone could have hoped tbh.....Gilchrist in with Katich, the aussies last hope. Langer at the moment is top scorer with 40, but Gilchrist is chancing his arm.

T1:4 2ND SESSION RUNS OVER 112 @ EVS. 4PNTS

I took this as Gilchrist was chancing his arm, but as I write Flintoffs got him so this bet is probably screwed but it does take away the biggest threat to Langers top scorer bet, so swings & roundabouts really 126-6.

As I write I am listening to potential bombs again in London, 3 tube stations closed, reports of an explosion @ Warren St. Possibly a nail bomb, also an incident on a bus

[Swooperman]

180odd -8 now, Warne & katich both gone

BET T1:1A AUSTRALIA @ 7/4. 3PNTS.

BET T1: 5 DRAW @ 6/1. 7PNTS Cant see it but weather for weekend is supposedly worse so I'm covering at a small profit...so on the first day I'm in profit whatever the result

[Swooperman]

England 18-3 now...McGrath has the lot. Bell in with Pietersen

BET T1:2A ENGLAND WIN @ 11/8. 6PNTS

BET T1:6 ENGLAND 1ST INNS UNDER 210 @ EVS. 5PNTS