Swoopers International Surgery, System & Stats......

[Swooperman]

Time for a new system methinks.......

I've got another cricket system running at the moment, but that has become very much a wide angle lens on cricket as a whole, & it will finish @ the end of the English domestic season.
This new system will involve only International test & ODI games. It will start conveniently with the Ashes, starting next thursday, & will run for an undetermined length of time.
It will involve series bets as well as games in-running, & will involve a lot of research of which the theory for each bet will be placed on the system......so it could well be boring also
If a bet, particularly in-running, is placed in a hurry, & the reason is not starkly obvious, I will aim to explain it at some point during the day.
I will start with a 500pnt bank. The reason being that if involving series bets I am tying up funds over a period of up to 2 months.

This is a real money system, so rest assured that the posted bets will be placed on with hard earned dosh

The Ashes series starts thursday next week, so between then & now I will be concentrating on series ante-post bets, of which there are a large number, & putting all reseach, reasons & other pyrotechnics on the system.

I know there are not a lot of cricket followers on this board as yet but I hope this will build as the board does, & the word is spread.....after all, if were relying on Komps Scottish tips to bring people in were in trouble
....(sorry !!)
Anybody who wishes to comment on the system, the bets or the rationale of it all please feel free....after all if I dont like what you say I could always delete it

Back later with series wickets & such........

[Swooperman]

I forgot to mention that I will generally use 3 bookies as such....Stan James, Bet365 & Betrfair, as I have found these are the best for cricket markets, although I have already placed 1 bet @ Gamebookers. Incidentally, Gamebookers still had the Aussies @ 23/20 for the first test last night whereas I believe elsewhere they are odds on.

I will use a key for bets on this system:
A series Ante-Post bet will start with the letter S. eg the Ashes will be S1, & each bet numbered after that.
A test bet will start with T, & followee by the numbered test in the system, followed by the numbered bet in that match.
A one day international bet will start with O, but otherwise be the same as a test match bet.

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Lovely name mate.

Dont follow cricket, but im sure if your system comes up trumps i could start

All the best with this

[zonker84]

I'd be careful with Gambebookers Swooper, they're one of the most corrupt companies around. Don't be surprised to see your bet voided half-way through the match

[Swooperman]

Only used 'em because I had an account for the footie & hadnt used it since the season so they sent me a scratchcard & free bets

[zonker84]

Fair enough, but just be wary. They have messed me around in a big way on a few occasions ( http://www.thedailypunt.com/forum/showthread.php?t=239 )

[MickeyPaul]

Good luck Swoops.

[Swooperman]

Player Series Wickets
England vs Australia - (Test Series) - AF Giles Book Closes 21 Jul-10:00
Players must start in at least 2 matches.
Add Under 12 5/6 Bet
Add 12 & Over 5/6 Bet

England vs Australia - (Test Series) - GD McGrath Book Closes 21 Jul-10:00
Players must start in at least 2 matches.
Add Under 23 5/6 Bet
Add 23 & Over 5/6 Bet

England vs Australia - (Test Series) - SJ Harmison Book Closes 21 Jul-10:00
Players must start in at least 2 matches.
Add Under 19 1/1 Bet
Add 19 & Over 8/11 Bet

England vs Australia - (Test Series) - SK Warne Book Closes 21 Jul-10:00
Players must start in at least 2 matches.
Add Under 24 5/6 Bet
Add 24 & Over 5/6 Bet

England vs Australia - (Test Series) - SP Jones Book Closes 21 Jul-10:00
Players must start in at least 2 matches.
Add Under 13 5/6 Bet
Add 13 & Over 5/6 Bet

All the above odds are Bet365.

Giles I'm going to look into, but although its only 12 wickets its difficult to tell tbh, its a very shrewd spread IMO. He will qualify for the bet because its inconceivable that he wont play 2 matches. He gets a lot of stick does Giler, unfairly mostly, & he has improved his lot over the years. He is highly rated by the rest of the team but I cant see him getting many wickets, & I think he will be used mainly to try & slow the Aussies down, rather than attacking. No matter what happens, Giles is extremely unlikely to be dropped for another spinner, only a quick, & that is unlikely although Tremlett would play as a 4th seamer in that scenario. I'm tempted by the under 12 wickets, as I can see 2 or 3 innings where he will not bowl at all, but I'll look more into the stats.

Harmison is a tricky one too. If England are to do well you feel Harmy has to take a lot of wickets & be at his best, which would be the over 19 mark, but he is a confidence player, as was shown in South Africa last winter. Granted that was away from home, & his home-sickness problems are well documented, but it still shows how inconsistent he can be. The Aussies know this too, with the final ODI all but won Ponting made a deliberate attack on Harmy to try & shatter his confidence, which worked to the extent his spell was the second worst in ODI history by an englishman by runs conceded, but that will happen. A definite no bet for me.

Jones I wouldnt touch either, if England do well he might not bowl that much but if the Aussies score 500+ then he'd get overs & then wickets. Too tight to call IMO

The 2 Aussies interest me greatly, & I will deal with them seperately:

Glenn McGrath

Knocking on a bit now but still a champion bowler, as was proved by when the tide was pulling Englands way at the start of the ODI's he was the only bowler who didnt go around the park. A class act.....

Overall test record: 109m, 499 wickets, BB 8/24, avg.21.22, E/R 2.49, S/R 51.1, 26x5 wickets, 3x10 wickets

He has taken 117 wickets @ 20.03 v England

In England: 11m, 68 wickets @ 18.27, economy rate is 2.79 & strike rate is 39.1 balls.
Of the 68 wickets in England, 48 @ 14.83 have come in the first innings of tests.
The 11 tests span 2 tours:

1997.
1st: 2-107 off 32, 0-42 off 7. Edgbaston
2nd: 8-38 off 20.3, 1-65 off 20. Lords
3rd: 3-40 off 23.4, 4-46 off 21. Old Trafford
4th: 2-67 off 22, 2-80 off 22. Headingley
5th: 4-71 off 29.5, 3-36 off 13.5. Trent Bridge
6th: 7-76 off21, & 0-33 off 17. Oval

2001.
1st: 3-67 off 17.3, 1-34 off 13. Edgbaston
2nd: 5-54 off 24, 3-60 off 19. Lords
3rd: 5-49 off 18, 0-31 off 11. Trent bridge
4th: 7-76 off 30.2, 1-61 off 16. Headingley
5th: 2-67 off 30, 5-43 off 15.3. Oval

Series total stats:
1997: 249.5ovs, 701runs, 36wickets @ 19.47, E/R 2.8, S/R 41.6
2001: 194.2ovs, 542runs, 32 wickets @ 16.93, E/R 2.78, S/R 36.4

12 were caught behind in 1997, 9 in 2001

McGrath has taken 361 wickets @ 18.85 in a winning cause for Australia.

Looking at his stats, despite his age he has not really reduced his overs in recent years, so he will still be bowling as much as he was in the previous tours. Indeed for a couple of tests he may bowl more if Gillespie doesnt sort out his woes, & the problem is sorted by him improving or being dropped.
An interesting stat may be if he has ever opened with Brett Lee, who will surely play after the ODI's, but I think used to bowl change but hasnt been in the test team for around 18 months, I'll look into that.
Summary of all this is that Bet365 have given a low quote for my money, which will definetly be on 23 or over wickets for Mcgrath in the series. His record backs this up & I have have an indelible minds-eye image of Tresco snicking him behind from over the wicket, feet planted like tree trunks.
The only danger is his age & therefore injuries, but I think he could make this bet missing 1 test tbh, or coming close anyway.

BET S1:1 - GLENN MCGRATH 23 WICKETS IN THE SERIES OR OVER @ 5/6: 20 POINTS STAKED

[Swooperman]

Shane Warne

....hmmmm, they want 24 do they

Overall test record: 123 matches, 583 wickets @ 25.51, E/R 2.59, S/R 59.00, 29x5 wickets, 8x10 wickets

Test record v England: 26 matches, 132 wickets @ 23.03, E/R 2.34, S/R 59.00, 7x5 wickets, 2x10 wickets

Test record in England: 17 matches, 89 wickets @ 22.85, ER 2.33, SR 58.8, 5x5 wickets, 1x10 wickets

Test record since return from drug suspension: 16 matches, 92 wickets @ 24.45, ER 2.95, SR 49.57

Tests in England:

1993
1st: Old Trafford. 4-51 off 24, 4-86 off 49
2nd: Lords. 4-57 off 35, 4-102 off 48.5
3rd: Trent bridge. 3-74 off 40, 3-108 off 50
4th: Headingley. 1-43 off 23, 0-63 off 40
5th: Edgbaston. 1-63 off 21, 5-82 off 49
6th: Oval. 2-70 off 20, 3-78 off 40

1997
1st: Edgbaston. 1-110 off 35, 0-27 off 7.3
2nd: Lords. 0-9 off 2, 2-47 off 19
3rd: Old trafford. 6-48 off 30, 3-63 off 30.4
4th: Headingley. 0-2 off 1, 1-53 off 21
5th: 4-86 off 32, 3-43 off 16
6th: 2-32 off 17, 2-57 off 26

2001
1st: Edgbaston. 5-71 off 19, 3-29 off 10.1
2nd: Lords. 2-16 off 5.3, 1-58 off 20
3rd: Trent Bridge. 2-37 off 16, 6-33 off 18
4th: Headingley. 0-49 off 16, 1-58 off 18.2
5th: Oval. 7-165 off 44.2, 4-64 off 28

Series Stats:

1993: 439.5ovs, 877runs, 34 wicets @ 25.79, ER 1.99, SR 77.6

1997: 237.1ovs, 577runs, 24 wickets @ 24.04, ER 2.43, SR 59.2

2001: 195.2ovs, 580rs, 31 wickets @ 18.7, ER 2.96, SR 37.8

Slightly less overs bowled in 2001 but thats partly explained by it being a 5-match series whereas the others were 6 tests.
Warne has carried on where he left off since his 1 year ban, & has played seasons for Hampshire so he is in touch with English conditions, as is McGrath who has had stints with Worcs & Middx in recent years.
There will be plenty of overs for Warne as usual a it will be a 4-man attack as usual, likely to be McGrath, Gillespie, Lee & Warne. The possible variable being Gillespie being dropped for Tait or Kasprowicz.
I feel the series could well be close but I cant see England winning a test by an innings or anything like that, whereas you wouldnt put it past Australia tbh, so there will be 10 chances & 100 wickets up for grabs.
I'm not as convinced as I am by McGraths bet, but I still think thats its probably a decent bet, so I'm going with smaller stakes:

BET S1:2 SHANE WARNE 24 WICKETS OR OVER. 12PNTS @ 5/6

[Swooperman]

Player Performance
England vs Australia - (Test Series) - A Flintoff Book Closes 21 Jul-10:00
Add Under 615 5/6 Bet
Add 615 & Over 5/6 Bet

England vs Australia - (Test Series) - AC Gilchrist Book Closes 21 Jul-10:00
Add Under 570 5/6 Bet
Add 570 & Over 5/6 Bet

England vs Australia - (Test Series) - GO Jones Book Closes 21 Jul-10:00
Add Under 415 10/11 Bet
Add 415 & Over 4/5 Bet

The way this works is a tot up procedure throughout the series. Points are scored as:
Each run = 1pnt
Each wicket = 20pnts
Each catch = 10pnts
Each stumping = 25pnts

I like the look of both Flintoff & Gilchrist actually, Jones has only just been put up so I havent looked into it yet.

Adam Gilchrist

Batting stats:

68 matches, 97 innings, 17 not outs, hs 204*, avg55.65, 15x100

v England: 10 matches, 13 innings, 2 not outs, hs 152, avg 61.18, 2x100

in England: 5 matches, 5 innings, 340 runs, hs 152, avg 68.00, 1x100

In the 2002/3 Ashes series in Australia: 5 matches, 8 innings, 2 not outs, 333 runs, hs 133, avg 55.5, 1x100

He has played 2 series in New Zealand, arguably the most similar to English conditions (?) & averaged 36 & 171.5

Wicket-keeping stats:

68 matches, 287 dismissals, 260 caught, 27 stumped

v England: 10 matches, 51 dismissals, 47 caught, 4 stumped

in England: 5 matches, 26 dismissals, 24 caught, 2 stumped

In career off McGrath: 75 caught, 9 in England 2001
In career off Gillespie: 56 caught, 8 in England 2001
In career off Lee: 39 caught, 3 in England 2001
In career off Warne: 26 caught, 14 stumped, in England 2001 6 caught & 2 stumped

Gilchrist has had Trescothick caught behind 10 times in his career, head & shoulders above the next placed player.

In 2001 Gilchrist had a phenomenal series with the bat, & it is too much to expect for him to score 340 runs in only 5 innings again. The plus point is that as the teams are more evenly matched he is likely to bat more. Most tosses that the Aussies win they will bat, so that increases his chances of getting to the crease twice (barring follow ons!!). In Australia in 2002/3 he batted 8 times in 10, & the sides were closer than in 2001.
I expect the Aussies to win 1 test by a reasonable margin, say 7 wickets, so he would bat only once, there is also an outside chance they may win one by an innings, but I cant see it tbh. I cant really see a scenario that Australia will declare a first innings without him batting, so I think he will bat certainly 8 times, possibly 9.
If I drop his average to be on the safe side to 45.00, & say that he has 2 or 3 not outs which stands a chance batting @ 7, we are left with 6x45 which gives him 270 runs. I'm dropping that to be on the safe side to 250, so batting wise he would score 250 points.
'Keeping wise, his record in the 2 Ashes series are virtually identical:
2001. 5 matches, 24 caught, 2 stumped. 26 dismissals.
2002/3. 5 matches. 23 caught, 2 stumped. 25 dismissals.

.....so going on those stats its fair to expect 2 stumpings giving him 50 points, making 300 so far, meaning unless he scores more runs than I've allowed he needs to take 27 catches, which is slightly above the normal average.
I think he will get that kind of catches total, because McGrath will be his normal self, & I fully expect him to have Tresco caught behind 6 times this series & maybe more.
I went on the down-side of Gilchrists runs to try to work this out & I wouldnt be at all surprised if he scores 300, & another stumping would'nt go amiss either .....so I think I'll ponder this one but my gut feeling is that I'll go over with smaller stakes, as there is little margin for error on this at all. If he gets injured & misses 1 test you would think that theres no chance. Never in a million years would I be tempted with under 570.......

I'll deal with Freddie & Jones the gloves later.....

[zonker84]

McGrath over 23, Warne over 24

Are you saying you think Australia will win Swooper?

[Swooperman]

I reckon they can both make those bets & still lose the Ashes Zonk, although I'm not saying they will

Andy Flintoff:

Batting:

Overall record in tests: 47 matches, 72 inns, 3 not outs, 2239 runs, 167hs, avg.32.44, 4x100, 14x50, 11x0

Record in England: 25 matches, 35 inns, 1 not out, 1245 runs, 167hs, avg.36.61, 2x100

Last 25 tests: avg.44.45, 3x100, 12x50, 3x0
In England: 13 matches, avg.58.00, 2x100, 9x50, 1x0

Bowling:

Overall record: 47 matches, 119 wickets @ 33.32, ER 2.92, SR 68.3
In England: 56 wickets @ 38.96

Last 25 tests: 86 wickets @ 26.70, ER 2.92, SR 54.8

Last 6 series:

SL away 9 wickets in 3 tests
WI away 11 in 4
NZ home 10 in 3
WI home 14 in 4
SA away 23 in 5
Bang home 9 in 2

43 wickets in his first 26 tests, 76 in the following 21

Catches:

Overall: 31 catches in 47 tests
17 in the last 18 tests

As has been widely pointed out, Flintoff has never played the Aussies in a test. He has either been injued or not selected. He has been injury prone over the years but seems to be stronger now, & he must stay fit for England to stand a chance as the whole format of the team changes if he is missing....he is that important.
Taking his overall stats, he looks adecnt player, if not an out & out match winner, but if you look at his recent stats it tell a different story.
In his first 22 tests he scored 1 ton, 2 x 50's & 8 ducks, & took 43 wickets.
In the most recent 25 tests he has scored 3 tons, 12 x 50, only 3 ducks & took 86 wickets @ 26.7. His batting averages almost 45 in that period.

A massive improvement.....

His batting always had talent but has now looked fearsome at times, & his bowling has improved no end in the last 2 years.
In the absence of head to head analysis, I think he is likely to bat 8 or 9 times, maybe all 10, with a couple of not outs thrown in. I can see him getting something like an 80 & a 50, with 2 or 3 30's & 40's also. I certainly think he will clear 250 runs in the series, maybe more, so I'll give him 250 batting points.
Bowling wise I think he'll take wickets most innings, with a 4-for & a couple of 3-fors thrown in, so I certainly think he'll break 15 wickets in the series. He has already shown that together with Harmy, he is thrown the ball when Vaughan wants the job done, as he has the control, as proved when he comes around the wicket to bowl to Gilchrist, cramps him up & gets him caught behind. So that gives him 300 bowling points minimum, making 550 in total.
He fields in the slips so he'll get his chances & I would expect him to take around 4 or 5 catches in the series, putting him up to 590 points, which means another couple of wickets or another 30 runs & he'll break the spread, so I think I'm prepared to take that on & go over but smaller stakes again due to the possibility of injury.

BET S1:3. FLINTOFF OVER 615 POINTS PERFORMANCE. 12 PNTS @ 5/6

[kompressaur]

good stuff Swooper and good luck.

[Pie-chucker]

Swoops, great analysis and good conservative thinking about runs (305-330 the spreads say) and catches - 1.5 a match I say; caught & bowled will make you smile. And bowling. 15? easy.

Flintoff has, if the god's conspire, this ability to make the ball follow him. It's happenstance, but it's also a Botham/Warne factor. So there are performance points aplenty.

Because of the workload, the condensed series, what are the chances of Flintoff playing all five tests? It's the 6-4 he won't -- my reckoning -- that ONLY makes this bet a bit iffy.

[zonker84]

My gut instinct on the 3 bets you've posted up so far Swooper, is that they're all 50/50 at best, and hence not good value.

Warne and McGrath should do well, but then Lee will have a good series too in all likelihood. Asking Warne and McGrath to take pretty much 5 wickets per test each, assuming they don't get injured, is a lot. One may win, but would be very surprised if both did.

Flintoff I think will struggle with the bat in this series. Maybe will be 250, but I wouldn't count on too many more. 615 is set pretty high, but it'll come down to his bowling. Again, I don't think 15 wickets is a formality, it is very variable. It could depend on how much of a role Giles plays.

All in all, I think all 3 bets are likely to lose from what I can see now. I could be wrong, but we shall see

I'm considering a few series bets myself, but I'll wait a bit longer to see if any bookmakers will put up any more markets as it draws closer