Tennis Superstars System

[Beanie]

Lets have a think about this...I know I wont explain it too well.

Most tennis tournaments are seeded, ensuring the big players(we're talking Fed, Roddick on Hard/Grass, Hewitt on grass, Nadal on clay) get very easy first and second round draws, and almost always progress through one or two rounds, even if they are playing below par. It is only in the later rounds that they might be caught out if not at their best.

This system seeks to use match on match as an indicator of how well a player is playing, knowing that even if he is terribly off form, he should still scrape through his first round match against a relative no-hoper, and we then have the indicator we need to stop backing the player for that particular tournament.

It'll go a little something like this:

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Players to back:

Federer on any surface

Hewitt on Grass

Roddick on Hard/Grass

Nadal on Clay

When to Bet:

Only consider best of 3 set tournaments. Back the superstar in the first round. If he wins in straight sets with no tiebreaks, back him in the next round. If he concedes a set or is taken to atleast one tiebreak, do not bet on him again for that tournament. Apply these criteria for every following round.

Do not bet on any superstar vs any other superstar on the surfaces specified above(ie take Nadal v Hewitt on clay, but not Federer v Roddick on grass.)

Level 5pts stakes per bet.

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As I say, even in the worst case scenario and a player is in poor form/bad mood/doesnt like the tournament/conditions, they should still progress through a round or two, but perhaps not in easy fashion, giving the indicator not to bet in future rounds.

Of course, we could well lose badly if a player has a really off day/comes up against a very in form player, but those losses should be minimised as we will only be backing the superstars if they are playing well. The only time they are being backed 'blind' in the first round, they will generally have an easy enough draw to go through whatever.

I realise there's quite a few flaws in this system, but there's no harm in trying.

Will start from next week.

[Beanie]

Infact, since Nadal is playing tomorrow, and his form qualifies him for a bet, we go with:

Nadal To Beat Nieminen - 5pts @ 1/25 with William Hill.

Notice that Roddick was playing on the hard courts in Indianapolis today, but was NOT a selection as he dropped a set(and tiebreaks) to Dmitry Tursunov in the second round(although still squeezed through.)

He lost at very short odds today to Robby Ginepri, which is exactly the type of thing the system is set up to avoid.

A quiet but promising day.

[Beanie]

Nadal wins as expected for a magnificent return of 0.2pts.

Gaudio will be tough in the final, but system says Nadal is playing well enough that he will win.

Two thumbs up

[Beanie]

Next up:

Nadal To Beat Gaudio 5pts @ 2/13 with Pinnacle.

Doubt it will be plain sailing, but system says Rafa will come through.

Clink Clink!

[Beanie]

Good old Rafa.

I think a starting bank of 100pts is the best way to show results, so the first update is:

Starting Bank: 100pts
Current Bank: 100.97pts

Should be a few selections for next week.

[Beanie]

No superstars playing this week, so its a week off.

[Beanie]

Bit of action this week, with Andy Roddick trying his luck on the hard courts at the Legg Mason Champs.

Selections to follow

[Beanie]

Andy Roddick to beat Giovanni Lapentti

5pts @ 1.07 with Stan James

[Beanie]

Roddick breezes through 6-3 6-4.

Starting bank: 100pts
Current Bank: 101.33pts

Big returns on these bets will be few and far between, but hopefully we'll squeeze a little more profit out of Andy this week.

[CJ Mars]

Hi Beanie

You should consider laying the opponent at long odds on Betfair. For short priced systems like this it is a much better bet in the long run.

For example last night you could lay Lapentti at 11s. Even with maximum commission this is equivalent to backing Roddick at 1.095.

If you are interested in short priced tennis betting the women’s game is a must (although less so recently with the decline of some of the bigger guns). I once went 19 bets between 1.20 and 1.10 without a single loser!

[Beanie]

Cheers CJ...I'll give the laying a go straight away.

And if the system is going well in a couple of months time I'll try and incorporate the women's tournaments.

[Beanie]

Roddick was a selection yesterday vs Chela, so I need to find odds for that game. Anyone help?

I know I never posted it up but this system is more about testing the idea out rather than tips or anything like that. I'll go and have a hunt for those odds.

Anyway Roddick wasn't a selection tonight as he dropped a set v Chela and sure enough continued to struggle this evening only just scraping past Karlovic.

[Beanie]

The only ones I can find are 1.10 on Betfair, so i'll have to go with that. I'll try and avoid this happening again in future though.

5pts @ 1.10 = .50pts profit - 0.025pts comission. .475pts profit.

Starting Bank: 100pts
Current Bank: 101.805pts

[Beanie]

A little more action this week with Roddick in action in Montreal(Nadal is too, but it aint clay .)

[dj_mercury]

Originally Posted by Beanie

A little more action this week with Roddick in action in Montreal(Nadal is too, but it aint clay .)

Agassi is a superstar on hard court. Odds of 1.12 are generous, considering the opponent.
I will follow very close your system. Beware to choose bookies, which are going to void your bet in case of injury.