Laddies, Betfair, and A.H. System

[traeth]

i've been thinking about this system during the close season and following reading the Ladbrokes System thread I thought I'd post this.
Please post your constructive opinions

Them = Ladbrokes
Us = betfair [ well most of us ]
Asians = the bet with the least overround

Use an odds comparison site to identify Ladbrokes best price for a home team. From that I deduce that Laddies have a tendency for the away side.
use the betfair price to obtain "value"- the betfair price must be 20% above the Laddies price for an away win
Many of my bets last season that failed were draws . So to eliminate some or all of this factor select the away team with a positive asian- betfair usually have the best price for this.

an example of this from tonight's Champions League matches may make it easier to understand.

Velarenga v Brugge
Best price for Velarenga is 2.38 with Ladbrokes
Price for Brugge with Ladbrokes is 2.6
Price for Brugge with Betfair is 3.19
Value = 0.59/2.6 = 22%
Asian bet with betfair Brugge +0,+0.5 @1.88

OR
Betis v Monaco
Best price for Betis is 2.0 with Ladbrokes
Price for Monaco with Ladbrokes is 3.4
Price for Brugge with Betfair is 4.33
Value = 0.93/3.4 = 27%
Asian bet with betfair Monaco +0.5 @1.98

There is a subtle difference between +0,+0.5 and +0.5
I will be placing money on these matches tonight as a trial run , as I cannot resist ,but realise that I should paper test this first or even back test it.

Asian bet with betfair Brugge +0,+0.5 @1.88 10pts

Asian bet with betfair Monaco +0.5 @1.98 10 pts

Starting bank = 100pts

Please give your opinions

cheers

[ONEDUNME]

Interesting Traeth but you might want to re-think the title in light of current racial tensions


Whadayareckon

[traeth]

yes -agree how do you change it ?

do the mods have to do that or can i

change it to Laddies , betfair and A.H system

cheers

[Beanie]

Originally Posted by traeth

Please post your constructive opinions

Looks shite

Na, looks good.

A quick point...it might be worth taking into account the 5% Betfair comission when calculating your 20% advantage. As with the comission, a lot of the bets you take might be just under 20% in terms of money back should it win.

Apart from that...good luck

[zonker84]

Betfair charge a flat rate of 1% commission on Asian Handicap markets Beanie

[Beanie]

No one likes a know it all

[zonker84]

Better than spreading false information

Seriously though, their rate on AH is good. Now I've pointed it out to you, you might be able to make better profits

[ONEDUNME]

Originally Posted by Beanie

No one likes a know it all

I do Thanks for the info Zonker

[Beanie]

You must really hate yourself then ODM

Yeah...have to say I never realised and assumed it was 5%. I'll have to get using that a bit more.

Good luck with tonights picks Traeth, and see if you can get better results than my Ladbrokes effort.

[ONEDUNME]

I use betfair almost every day Beanie and it never occurred to me, even though I read some bumf a while ago about diferent commissions on diferent markets.

I was thinking of looking into the Asian handicap markets and this has given me the little nudge in that direction.

[traeth]

thanks for all your encouragement , i think asian handicaps are the way to go - made a bit of money last season going for the underdog A.H. in derby matches .
Apart from looking shite

there must be other factors

i intend to use it in the EPL and the championship from this weekend
got a busy weekend so would like your comments before then . I suppose if my two selections come up tonight it'll be great , if they lose it'll be that load of shite

cheers boys- watching Everton in the champions league tonight - did not i would be saying that a year ago

[crowie]

traeth,

You might want to have a look at this thread Pinnacle Reduced Margin for AH prices as well. I would guess that Pinnacle, especially the reduced margin AH markets, could be a Betfair beater on prices and even over-round.

Overall an interesting system. I have thought about using a certain bookies to try and use their knowledge and prices to identify "good things" elsewhere. Like you I ended up with Ladbrokes as the "expert" when considering this sort of thing.

[traeth]

two 1-0 defeats today

well what a shite system

[traeth]

Not a very good start - in fact the worse start posssible

Brugge +0,+0.5 @1.88 10pts - lost

Monaco +0.5 @1.98 10 pts - lost

Starting bank = 100pts
Points staked = 20 pts
profit/loss = -20 pts
Present bank = 80 pts

will have another go in tonights matches

will continue until the bank will dissappear [ that could be soonner than i anticipated - because of increased chance of the return of stake decided to make the stake 10% of bank]

cheers - going to study tonights matches

[traeth]

no games fitting the criteria in the champions league - gone for CC2

0xford v Torquay
Best price for Oxford is 2.2 with Ladbrokes
Price for Torquay with Ladbrokes is 2.75
Price for Torquay with Betfair is 3.52
Value = 0.77/2.75 = 28%
Asian bet with Ladbrokes Torquay +0,+0.5 @1.94



Asian bet with Ladbrokes Torquay +0,+0.5 @1.94 10pts


cheers