A Tennis Set Betting Model

[CJ Mars]

Got matched with some early prices for some of tommorows games

Chela vs Baghdatis

Baghdatis seems to be suffering from some bad managerial advice. Following heroics at last years US Open and this years Oz Open he should have been making a major breakthrough as his rankings climbed but he is still stuck playing Challengers and qualifiers. A powerful player that reminds me a lot of the big hitting Gonzalez he is in good recent form with a semi final in Nottingham on grass and a hardcourt win in a big Challenger in Spain back in early July. He actually played Chela in his last game in Los Angeles where he won the first before losing the next two. Chela is in good form and is a rare Argentinian in being very confortable on hardcourt. My main reason for thinking that Baghdatis can nick a set is that he tends to raise his game for the big occasion taking sets of every top 100 player he has ever played (and winning two). He has also taken a set of Federer in A Grand Slam and beaten Ljibicic and Robredo in a slam. Chela has played a lot of tennis in the last two weeks and might be vulnerable here.

Lay Chelas sets 2-0 at 2.30 (2.50 Units Risked)

Santoro vs Carlsen

Two real veterans of the tour face off. Santoro has won their 3 meetings but Carlsen is a tough opponent who even while losing still gives it his all. A pretty amazing 6 of his last 7 hardcourt games have gone to 3 sets includeing defeats to Gaudio and victories over Baghdatis. Santoro too is prone to getting involved in dogfights especially on hardcourts with 6 of his 16 3 setters in 2005 going to 3 sets which is typical of his career in the last few years as he shows a higher then expected number of 3 setters. This one could go either way in my view with a slightly more aggressive correct score strategy preferred to a straight lay of Santoro’s 2-0 sets.

Carlsen to beat Santoro 2-1 0.75 Units @ 5.6
Santoro to beat Carlsen 2-1 1.00 Units @ 4.3

[CJ Mars]

Lay Garcia Lopez 2-0 vs Gimlestob @ 2.84 (2 Units Risked)
+1.03 Units

Gimelstob wins a very tight 3 setter .

Ram vs Mello

I would fancy Mello to make relatively short work of lowly ranked (484) Ram tomorrow as his record versus players outside the top 250 is excellent. He has won 11 of 15 2-0 and despite slightly patchy recent form he should have too much for Ram who has only played 13 competitive games in 2005 and who struggled past a player ranked over 1,000 in the first qualifying round here. Mello’s lack of form a slight worry but should have the class to get through here.

Mello to beat Ram 2-0 2.50 Units @ 2.10

[CJ Mars]

Chrisoph Rochus vs Martin

Martin is a big favourite here (1.67 vs 2.44) which is pretty startling as (1) lost 11 of his last 12 ; (2) retired injured in his last match and (3) have a pretty uninspiring hard court record. Rochus is definitely nothing special but he has won 1 of their 4 meetings and taken sets in 2 of the losers including the sole hardcourt meeting. Rochus is nothing special on hardcourt but is just about value to nick a set.

Lay Martin 2-0 sets vs Rochus @ 2.8 (2.00 Units Risked)

[CJ Mars]

Lay Chelas sets 2-0 at 2.30 (2.50 Units Risked) – 2.50 Units
Andreev to beat Monaco 2-1 1 Unit @ 4.5 –1.00 Units
Moncao to beat Andreev 2-1 0.75 Unit @ 5.6 –0.75 Units
Carlsen to beat Santoro 2-1 0.75 Units @ 5.6 –0.75 Units
Santoro to beat Carlsen 2-1 1.00 Units @ 4.3 –1.00 Units
Mello to beat Ram 2-0 2.50 Units @ 2.10 –2.50 Units
Lay Martin 2-0 sets vs Rochus @ 2.8 (2.00 Units Risked) +1.06 Units

Not a good day at all with 4 from 5 losers. Especially painful Mello’s abject two set surrender to a player ranked over 400 places below him.

Santoro shows his head to head record over Carlsen no fluke by handing out a good caning and Andreev showing good hardcourt form in beating Monaco in two. Only Rochus lifts the gloom with a fine straight sets win over big favorite Martin. Took last weeks gains and shredded them badly. Hoping for bettter things today.

Bets 22
Staked 37.62 Units
Returned 38.35 Units
Profit 0.73 Units
Yield 1.95%

[CJ Mars]

Lay Ferrer 2-0 vs Zib @ 2.28 (2 Units Risked)
Santoro to beat Mathieu 2-1 0.75 Units @ 6.3
Mathieu to beat Santoro 2-1 1.00 Units @ 4.3
Lay Melzer 2-0 vs Kohlscreiber @ 2.4 (2 Units Risked)

Ferrer had a bye to the second round and could be slow to start. Zib had a fine underdog win vs Muller.

Santoro scuppered me yesterday. I mentioned the high number of three setters he is involved in and I’m hoping the same will apply today.

Melzer like Ferrer had a first round bye while Koholschreiber impressively disposed of Mardy Fish. According to my stats when odds on Melzer is the single worst player in the top 100 to back in straight sets. Kohlschreibers beaten him in one of their two prior meetings and hoping for the same today.

[CJ Mars]

Blake vs Volandri

There is a big value bet lurking here! See separate post in Other Sports! :yikes

Blake to win 2-0 – 5 Units @ 1.84

Chela vs Davydenko

Surprised to see Davydenko such a big favorite. Chela is in fine form recently. A straight sets win over the useful Baghdatis confirms his decent form. He is also 2-0 on HtH (admittedly both on clay which is probably a slightly better surface for him than the Russian). Davydenko has improved an awful lot on hardcourt this year but there is no way I’d make him a 1.67 shot to win here. A tight game looks likely here.

Chela to beat Davydenko 2-1 0.75 Units @ 5.8
Davydenko to beat Chela 2-1 0.75 Units @ 5.2

[CJ Mars]

Lay Ferrer 2-0 vs Zib @ 2.28 (2 Units Risked) – 2 Units
Santoro to beat Mathieu 2-1 0.75 Units @ 6.3 –0.75 Units
Mathieu to beat Santoro 2-1 1.00 Units @ 4.3 –1.00 Units
Lay Melzer 2-0 vs Kohlscreiber @ 2.4 (2 Units Risked) +1.36 Units
Blake to win 2-0 – 5 Units @ 1.84 +3.99 Units
Chela to beat Davydenko 2-1 0.75 Units @ 5.8 –0.75 Units
Davydenko to beat Chela 2-1 0.75 Units @ 5.2 –0.75 Units

Very unlucky not to make a bigger profit today with both Chela and Santoro who I felt were underpriced winning but unfortunately in straight sets in both cases! Melzer remains a player to oppose at short odds as he crashes in straight sets.

Bets 29
Staked 49.87 Units
Returned 50.7 Units
Profit 0.83 Units

[CJ Mars]

1 for tonight as I try to get matched for tomorrow's games.

Haas vs C.Rochus

Haas I've ranked 17 in the top 100 in terms of set betting. He is generally reliable against players of Rochus's calibre. Rochus is W1-L11 against players I'd rank with Haas and he has only managed 3 sets in two of those games. Haas hasn't played a lot since an injury in Wimbeldon but I'd fancy he should have enough for the Belgian in two here.

2 Units Haas to beat Rochus @ 1.91

[CJ Mars]

Haas wins but dropped a set in doing so.

For this afternoon:

Lay Lopez 2-0 vs Spadea @ 2.34 (2 Units Risked)
Lay Gonzlalez 2-0 vs Verdasco @ 2.44 (2 Units Risked)
Lay Andreev 2-0 vs Kohlscreiber @ 2.36 (2 Units Risked)

[CJ Mars]

2 from three today. Hopefully can pick a winner with the final selection of the day.

Srichaphan vs Ferrer

They met this time last year on US hardcourt with Chip winning 2-1. In the meantime Srichaphan has fallen out of the top 25 to close to 50 although there are signs of a recovery at last. Ferrer is a claycourter at heart although improving on hardcourt as well. This has the makings of a tight game.

0.75 Units Chip 2-1 @ 5.1
0.75 Units Ferrer 2-1 @ 4.4

[CJ Mars]

2 Units Haas to beat Rochus @ 1.91 –2 Units
Lay Lopez 2-0 vs Spadea @ 2.34 (2 Units Risked) +1.42 Units
Lay Gonzlalez 2-0 vs Verdasco @ 2.44 (2 Units Risked) +1.32 Units
Lay Andreev 2-0 vs Kohlscreiber @ 2.36 (2 Units Risked) –2 Units
0.75 Units Chip 2-1 @ 5.1 –0.75 Units
0.75 Units Ferrer 2-1 @ 4.4 –0.75 Units

Had a winner last night with a correct score bet on the Blake vs Lopez match but unfortunately did not post.

Bets 37
Staked 59.37 Units
Returned 57.44 Units
Loss 1.93 Units
Yield – 3.26%

[CJ Mars]

1 for today

Lay Ancic 3-0 vs Lee @ 2.30 (3 Units risked)

[CJ Mars]

1 for today

Lay Ancic 3-0 vs Lee @ 2.30 (3 Units risked)

1 for today - reasoning in US Open thread

Federer to beat Agassi 3-0 3 Units @ 1.94