When constructing a price for set betting in tennis the bookmakers base their prices on the respective players “straight” win odds. For example a typical bookmaker who prices a player to win a match at between 2/5 and 4/9 will offer odds to win 2-0 of around evens. The price to win 2-1 will typically be around 4s. If you look at the
Betfair prices in the Agassi Kiefer match at the moment Agassi priced at 1.4 is 2.04 to win 2-0 and 4.2 to win 2-1. A similar relatively linear relationship between the straight win price and the 2-0 set win price can be easily constructed. The 2-1 price is a bit more complicated. It resembles more a bowl if plotted on a graph but for the purposes of this system I won’t go into it too much. I’ll try and post some graphs later if I can figure out the screen grab.
Analysing 5 years data from 2001-2005 on Joe Buchdahl’s excellent Tennis Data site (a must if you are interested in tennis betting) showed that the bookmaker’s model is on the whole unsurprisingly pretty accurate. Quirks arise however when you start to look at players as individuals rather than as a homogenous mass. Some players tend to for want of a better word “blitz” their opponents when they win. The best example currently playing according to my statistics is Spanish wonder kid Nadal. As a result he is a player that does not fit (at least at present the current bookmakers model). An example should hopefully illustrate the point. Last night he played Richard Mello and went off on
Betfair at 1.15. This would equate to a bookmaker’s price of 1.36 to win 2-0. I would actually make him on average 15% better than this price would suggest so a price of around 1.31 would be closer to the fair price. I got matched at 1.48 for 2-0
. Nadal cruised to a 6-1,6-2 win.
Nadal is actually a top 25 player who is currently underpriced in 2-0 set betting. He is one of a minority. Many more “name” players tend to be significantly overpriced when it comes to set betting. Among the top 25 these include Robredo, J.Johansson, Henman and a player who until early 2004 was under rpriced in this market– Andre Agassi. A look at Agassi’s game yesterday versus Bjorkman illustrates his current situation. Agassi started with win odds of a very prohibitive 1.1 on the Big Blue. His 2-0 set win odds were 1.32. My estimates put Agassi at closer to 1.42 to win 2-0 making the 1.32 a definite lay. He eventually overcame a game Bjorkman in 3 sets.
Laying a 1.42 shot at 1.32 would if consistently done be very nice but there is an alternative way to exploit such anomalies in set bet pricing and this is by correct set betting. Like correct score betting in soccer this is simply a non-starter value wise with the High Street Bookies due to the monster overrounds of typically between 20 & 25%. With
Betfair and its typically much greater prices on longshots it becomes a viable alternative to laying the correct 2-0 score. Again an example will hopefully be illustrative. This was actually a match that I recommended in my qualifiers thread. Coria played Felix Mantilla in Poland last week starting at 1.12 on the outrights. Coria for all his prowess is a player that would have lost you an awful lot of money if you were backing him in correct score games even on his favorite clay surface. I recommended laying him outright or laying his 2-0 sets. He eventually won a very tight game 2-1. Unfortunately due to time constraints I couldn’t actually get on the score lay. I did however notice the fact that the correct 2-1 score was a whopping 8 to 1 on
Betfair. The best price on the bookies was 6s which was pretty close to how I priced the match.
Betfair’s tighter margins had made this a value bet. The Agassi-Bjorkman match yesterday priced Agassi 2-1 at 7.8! I made this a maximum of 5.5.
So far so longwinded! The question is can a profit be turned with selective correct score lays and / or correct score bets? Without going too far into my methods I believe it can. I have rated the current top 100 players on the ATP circuit with a set rating system that hopefully can be used to :
(1) Identify players where their correct score 2-0 odds indicate a back bet ;
(2) Identify players where their correct score 2-0 odds indicate a lay bet ;
(3) Identify players where a correct score 2-1 bet is value ;
Certain players might fit into both categories. For example in yesterday’s match Agassi would have fitted into category 2 (a correct 2-0 score lay) and also category 3 (a correct score 2-1 bet).
I will add a list here of players who fit into each category. Within the categories the players will be ranked in descending order into high value and medium value for punting purposes. When certain trigger conditions come into play I will back or lay the correct score bet accordingly. The list itself will change as the ratings change.
Staking will be for simplicity’s sake be fixed amounts rather than my usual fixed profits. Starting bank will be 100 Units.
I will put the full list up tonight.
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For now a few for later today.
Back Nadal vs Grosjean 2-0 2.50 Units @ 1.75
Lay Ancic vs Ruesdksi 2-0 to win 1.50 Units @ 2.60 (2.53 Units Risked)
Lay Robredo 2-0 vs Gaudio to win 1 Unit @ 3.7 (2.84 Units Risked)
Back Davydenko vs Beck 2-0 2.00 Units @ 2.32
A Tennis Set Betting Model
TOTW/F/M Award(s): 1
– 2.00 Units
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. Very early days.
–2.00
