Inside Edge suggested strategy for EPL sides

[crowie]

The most recent Inside Edge had a good few pages on the start of the footy season. A lot of it covered the EPL and they suggested a strategy for most of the EPL sides.

The ideas are all based around where a team is in the league - top half or bottom half. Their first suggestion is that the league table after 10 games can usually be a pretty close indicator to which half a team finishes in at the end of the season. Last season only Newcastle went from top to bottom half, being replaced by Man City. All other sides that were in their respective halves after 10 games finished in the same halves at the end of the season. To back this up, in the last 5 seasons either 16 or 18 teams every season have been in the half they finish in after 10 games.

So tip 1, have a good look at the table after 10 games, a lot of whats to follow is based on these placings.


What follows next is a summary of where IE think each team will finish, postives and negatives from last season and suggested betting strategies.

There are a few terms that may be thrown in. "B3" is Big Three (Chelsea, Man Utd, Arsenal), "Elite" is these 3 plus Liverpool.

I will not be putting up any systems based on whats below, I just thought I would drop it in here because it has some good strategy in it.


1. Arsenal

+ve - won more away games and than in previous unbeaten season, also accumulated more points against non-Elite than previous season

Strategy - back them away from home against teams with fewer than ten points from last 6 games, otherwise back the draw. Yielded 34% profit last season.


2. Chelsea

+ve - won 18 out of 20 games against bottom half teams

Strategy - back away from home against bottom half sides. Have won 9 out of these 10 games for last 2 seasons.


3. Man Utd

-ve - won only half their away games v non Elite last season (Chelsea, Arsenal both won 75%).

Strategy - back them away to top half teams. Have won 6 from 9 in each of last 2 seasons


4. Liverpool

-ve - only 5 away wins last season (6 the previous season)
-ve - 2 points from 9 visits to top half sides


Strategy - back at home v bottom half sides. 7 wins from 10 games last 2 seasons.


5. Middlesboro

-ve - only 4 of 22 away points last season came at top half sides

Strategy - back on AH away to bottom half sides. Only 2 defeats from 10 last season, 2 from 9 previous season.


6. Tottenham

+ve - from Jols appointment in November only Elite collected more points that Spurs.

Strategy - back at home v non Elite. 8 wins from 12 games following Jols appointment, only losses to Arsenal and Chelsea.


7. Bolton

+ve - improved their performances and points collection against top half sides last season.

Strategy - back away from home against bottom half sides. 5 wins from 10 last season, 6 from 10 previous season.


8. Blackburn

+ve - their record last season since Hughes appointment suggests they could climb from bottom half to top half.

Strategy - back on AH when they go to top half sides.


9. Newcastle

Strategy - lay at home to top half sides. Their win rate has been only 30% for last 2 seasons.


10. Man City

+ve - shut out Chelsea twice last season.
+ve - lost just 3 of 20 games v bottom half sides

Strategy - back them on AH away to non Elite sides, especially low scoring ones.


11. Everton

-ve - only 21 points in 2nd half of season (40 in 1st half).
-ve - only 1 away win from 11 after Xmas

Strategy - back at home v bottom half sides. Moyes has a 66% home win rate since he took over in March 2002.


12. Aston Villa

+ve - only 4 defeats from 20 games, home and away, bottom half sides. Only 6 defeats in same set of games previous season

Strategy - oppose them away to better home sides and in general against Elite.


13. Birmingham

-ve - suffered without Robbie Savage. In his 2 1/2 year stay at Birmingham they lost 8 out of 9 games he missed and then 5 out of 7 after he joined Blackburn.

Strategy - oppose Birmingham away until they prove they have replaced Robbie Savage


14. Charlton

-ve - took 8 points from last 12 league games.
-ve - took 0 points from 8 games v Elite

Strategy - back them on AH away to bottom half sides. Only lost 21% of these games over past 3 seasons.


15. Fulham

+ve - form over 2nd half of season was 7th best in league.
-ve - only 3 wins from 20 games v top half home and away.

Strategy - oppose them away to Elite and middle ranking sides. They took 5 points from 12 games away against sides who finished above them last season.


16. Wigan

+ve - well balanced home and away record in Championship suggests they could do well

Strategy - no real strategy suggested, keep an eye on them in Lancs derbies is only notes


17. WBA

+ve - showed top half form in 2nd half of season
+ve - just 5 defeats from 19 games after 5-0 Boxing Day loss to Liverpool
-ve - only 6 wins all season

Strategy - lay them away against non Elite


18. Portsmouth

-ve - worst form in 2nd half of season, 13 points from 19 games.
-ve - only 4 home wins from 12 games after Redknapp left.

Strategy - back them to lose away against non Elite top half sides. Only took 1 point from 8 away games after Amdy Faye left.


19. Sunderland

-ve - high number of away defeats in Championship.

Strategy - oppose them away until they prove otherwise.


20. West Ham

-ve - conceded 56 goals in the Championship.

Strategy - lay them away from home. 9 defeats away from home in Championship, sides with that profile will struggle in EPL.

[MickeyPaul]

Most interesting, Crowie. I'll give that a read over a coffee and cigs.

[ONEDUNME]

Like it a lot

[MickeyPaul]

Is anyone planning to keep a record?

[Martin Gale]

I think this looks very interesting and (with Crowie's permission) i will use the strategy on a weekly basis and keep a record.However i may not be betting on every game so if someone else would like to do something similar all well and good.

[MickeyPaul]

Brilliant stuff Martin. Looking forward to it. I would mate but I can't be trusted not to forget (I'm doing that alot lately ).

[Martin Gale]

Thank you Mister Paul. I'll try not to let you down and make this my first winning system on this forum.

[MickeyPaul]

Aye, don't get cocky now.

[crowie]

Originally Posted by Martin Gale

I think this looks very interesting and (with Crowie's permission) i will use the strategy on a weekly basis and keep a record.However i may not be betting on every game so if someone else would like to do something similar all well and good.

Aye, on you go Martin

As I said, I don't plan to run any sort of systems with it, I just thought I would post it up in here as it had some decent strategy ideas for various teams in the EPL and should hopefully benefit some people. Good article overall in IE on the footy this month though, its a good read.